After WW II, the economy did not shrink it expanded and many soldiers came back and started families. In their parent’s time an average family was 8 plus because some of the children died in infancy from a variety of childhood illness, medical advances slowed the number. During the expansion of children, the average family was about 5 and these children are called the baby boom generation. The sheer number caused expansion of schools and then post-secondary schools and the workplace. In present time, the baby boom is retiring and that is both good and bad news for the economy.

In an article by Ian McGugan, in 1981 there was 14 people between the ages of 60 and 64 in full time work for every 100 people aged 20 to 24. Now the people between the ages of 60 and 64 is 45 out of a hundred working people.

The number means when companies layoff people it is quite possible that the older people in the company take a buyout leading to retirement. The retirement means more opportunities for younger people. This is good news for the economy because if people are retired and receiving a pension, they have income which is good for the economy in general.

The tougher problem for the economy in the future will be health care costs which as people aged their bodies will break down to some degree. Older people in general need access to health care. The other issue is the ratio of people drawing from pensions to those paying into the pension system means there is an in balance which will need to be corrected with possible higher premiums for those working. Those problems will come as the baby boom generation continues to age.

For the time being, the prospect of a hard recession is a little lower because of the pensions of the baby boom generation. What happens is most people in their 60’s are not establishing households and the economy of households and the spending around the house helps generate growth in the economy. If those in the 60’s are staying put and not buying, there is less demand.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, for the next few years the worst aspects of the economy should be less because of the baby boom population retiring and eligible to receive both private and government pensions. There will be great opportunity to care for the seniors in the health care companies which means some of the companies can be bought and held for many years, just use your homework to find a good price to enter.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

When COVID happened, China adopted a policy of shutdown of the area in which cases were discovered. The shutdown affected normal life including the economic engine of the Chinese economy. China’s President has been losing the reigns of the shutdown and allowing people to move freely again. The freedom was opened up the economy and this has been translated on to the stock market.

In an article from Reuters, foreign investors are slowly coming back into the Chinese stock markets. MSCI China has gained 50% since November while the Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is up 47% against roughly 6% for the world’s stock exchange.

Analysts attribute most of the gains to short-covering and fast money, leaving the slower institutional money to drive the rally further.

Ken Peng, head of Asia’s investment strategy at Citi Global Wealth expects greater inflows into the Chinese markets and is bullish on Chinese equities.

JP Morgan Asset Management is in the process of raising allocations to Chinese equities for its institutional clients.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, as a dividend buyer you will miss some big rallies because the emphasis on buying is the long-term payments and capital appreciation. There are speculators which help ensure liquidity in the market and they have up years and down years, because there is no consistency with speculation. The idea is then do your homework and have patience the reason you bought comes forthwith. In this fashion you try to avoid the number one rule, try not to lose money.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Most of us are bias and that is okay. We are bias towards the region we live in, for if it is good enough to live there it is good enough to invest there. We often miss the opportunities that happen outside of our area. Most people do not have access to unlimited funds, which means trying to keep life reasonably simple means to invest in companies in our regional area to keep a watch on them. The reality is many countries outside of where we live have stock markets and they all perform in very similar fashion. One country is Qatar.

In an article by Hadeel Al Sayegh of Reuters, if you watched some or all of the FIFA World Cup, those stadiums were in Qatar. Now that the excitement has passed, Argentina won and seemingly more normal things are happening. Qatar being in the Middle East has access to oil and gas revenues and is the world’s largest LNG exporter.

IT services firm MEEZA is expected to raise $249 million in January with the selling of 50% of its shares on the Doha Stock Exchange.

The encourage more listings, the Doha Stock Exchange allows companies to offer a price range to test investor appetite and determine pricing.

Osama Ali, HSBC’s head of global banking in Qatar, noted 6 more companies may go public through IPOs in the next 18 months.

Foreign investors are still banned from taking part in IPOs, but they can buy and sell shares listed Qatari firms.

Qatar is classified as an emerging market by index bench marker MSCI. The market capitalization of the stock exchange is $158.2 billion, and the local competitors are Abu Dhubi”s $718.8 billion and Riyadh’s 2.72 trillion.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, when you buy these companies, you want to be able to have relatively simple rules on when you should sell, for you bought them both for their yield and potential capital gain. The idea of having simple rules is knowing when to sell or find alternatives and a simple way is for you to buy companies you deal with on a regular basis. When you do that, you tend to have regional bias, but that is ok. When you are doing your homework to examine alternatives you can find very good companies in other regions and other countries, fortunately they all are trying to do similar things, which makes it easier as an investor.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Every industry is dependent on an economic activity which drives the sales of the business. The classic example is the steel industry and car companies. The more cars are sold, the more steel is needed and the greater the raw materials which make steel are needed and the process continues. If the car market is depressed, less steel is needed, which means less raw materials are needed and the process continues. In the investment banking business, the economic activity is mergers and acquisitions. The top investment bank on Wall Street is Goldman Sachs and they are laying off people.

In an article by Saeed Azhar and Scott Murdoch of Reuters, Goldman Sachs laid off 3,000 people. That scale of layoffs is the largest since the 2008 financial crisis. The 3,000 plus is from a total workforce of 49,100. If you work for an investment bank, you live for the bonuses. Bonus are expected to fall 40% from last year. If the investment bankers are laying off people so are the M&A law firms.

Global investment banking fees nearly halved in 2022, fees were $132.3 billion in 2021 and $77 billion in 2022, according to Dealogic. The total value of M&A had slumped 37% to $3.66 trillion after hitting an all-time high of $5.9 trillion in 2021.

IPOs fell to $517 billion, the lowest level since the early 2000’s and a 66% drop from 2021.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, all industries have an economic activity which drives the market. In the above example there is a large market, but it has not as big as it was the year before. Money is made, but it is not the printing of money for everything you do. The deals are more selective and customers are less loyal, down markets is when customer loyalty is put to the test. In up markets, the institutions can try other companies, in the down markets, the investment bankers are bidding on deals they previously were too busy. In your investments, which economic activity drives the market and how does the major companies react to new business?

There are more questions than answers, till next time – to raising questions.

Somewhere in the marketplace are people trying to discover or implement some new changes to an industry and that is a good thing which organically happens. Once in a while, some of these changes become mainstream or available to everyone which means existing systems have to change. Lagging behind the changes are the regulators partly because the industry is made up of large and small companies. A change in the regulation needs to affect all companies, not just the big ones who can move easily adjust to regulation changes. The larger companies have people keeping up with the regulations (often their people help write the regulations)

In an article from Reuters, The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is proposing a requirement that passenger and cargo aircraft in the US have 5G C-band tolerant radio altimeters or install filters in 2024.

Verizon and AT&T in June voluntarily agreed to delay some C-Brand 5G usage until July 2023, as air carriers work to retrofit airlines to ensure that they will not face interference. There were concerns that 5G service could interfere with airplane altimeters.

Airlines for America, a trade group representing American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and others, noted carriers are working diligently to ensure fleets are equipped with radio altimeters, but global supply chains continue to lag behind current demand.

Wireless group CTIA said the FAA’s schedule for altimeter updates is reasonable and practical. 5G in the C-Band co-exists safely with air traffic.

Linking to dividend paying stock, in this example the telecom companies are bringing 5G to the masses to do more on the smartphone and on your laptop that is a good thing. The technology may or could have an impact on existing systems because of the operations and what consumers expect and what they are receive is a little different. The government tries to correct the situation with new regulations, but before the regulations can be implemented there is a time delay. The time delay is for both large and small companies, but the large ones benefit the most. Government regulations while not a bad thing, tend to help large companies, as an investor you like that.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

A number of years ago, while seating on a Board of a nonprofit applying to the government for grants – we tailored the grants to the main themes of the political party. When the election changed the political party, the themes changed and so did the tailoring of the grants, but the program for the children was essentially the same. We are all exposed to the shiny new gadget, and someone gets excited which means people have to adapt to it. In Silicon Valley, the shiny new gadget is Artificial Intelligencer or AI.

In an article by Erin Griffith and Cade Metz of the New York Times News Service, due to the release of ChatGPT and people beginning to see what could become, there is a new gold rush in AI.

The lab which released OpenAI is in talks with financial partners to raise more money which value the company at $29 billion. The reason is this type of AI has the potential to change and reinvent basic items from search to photoshop and graphics to digital assistants. The possibility is there but how to monetize it is not.

According to PitchBook.com which tracks financial activity across the industry, in 2022 investors spent $1.37 billion in AI companies across 78 deals.

Investors at Sequoia Capital wrote that generative AI had the potential to generate trillions of dollars of economic value.

There are more than 450 startups working on generative AI and the venture capital investors are looking for the next big thing. Companies such as Replika, Character.AI, You.com and Radical Ventures have been deluged with interest.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, there is always a shiny gadget somewhere that offers wonderful potential. The trick is understanding how revenues or money is made with the shiny gadget. Individually you might see one or two gadgets, but those with money to invest see hundreds. With dividend paying stocks, time is on your side. Time to evaluate or make a decision, time to incorporate the shiny gadget into the company, time to ensure profits continue to pay dividends. Most of us are excited by the shiny new gadget, but do not rush in.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

When you buy a good or service, part of what you are buying is the infrastructure around that service. Can you bring it back? can you fix it? Most of the time, these questions are not on the front of your decision making, but they help you make a final decision. For brand new products on the market, the infrastructure tends not to be nationwide, it is typically regional in nature.

In the Electric Vehicle world, one aspect of the infrastructure is charging the vehicle. At some point the gas stations will have both gas for internal combustion engines and something for electric vehicles, but we are not there yet.

In an article from the Associated Press, Mercedes announced they are building a worldwide electric vehicle charging network starting in North America.

The cost of the network in 2023 will be $1.4 billion. When completed in 7 years, the network will have 400 charging stations with more than 2.500 high-power plugs. The full network worldwide will be 2,000 charging stations and 10,000 plugs.

The stations will be open to all owners of electric vehicles, but Mercedes owners will be able to reserve charging ports and receive preference over other makes.

Telsa has 40,000 charging ports worldwide, but the network is for the exclusive use of Tesla owners. Elon Musk said there ae no plans to open them up to other electric vehicles.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, one of the barriers to entry for many companies is the infrastructure that exists which helps keep its competitors out. Some of the barriers are by government regulation, but the barriers are something the company is not receiving any funds for, i.e. building a charging system. The name is shown, the station will have to be in keeping with Mercedes status, but Mercedes does not receive an income. If the barriers help keep out the competition, then it is worth investigation the company which benefits. Barriers or moats can be a good thing in investing.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

At some point we have to shop for things for most of us cannot make everything or a few things that we need and want. In the world of retail shopping there are many options and with COVID, the internet made for even more options. One option people have liked was the store Bed Bath & Beyond. The chain store was a success had grown to 955 stores in North America and also owns buybuy Baby stores.

In an article by Jessica Dinapoli and Mike Spector of Reuters, the management of the store is facing plunging sales, dwindling cash and heavy debt load or in simple terms cash flow is negative.

The company said its 3rd quarter results was a $385.5 million loss, after sales fell 33%. The strategy to focus on private label goods did not work and the company is trying to attract the national brands back to the store.

The company has not been doing well for a few years, but last year it became a meme stock and the price soared 400%. Activist Ryan Cohen, the chairman of GameStop Corp had a large holding but then sold and when it became public the shares fell.

Bed Bath & Beyond CEO Sue Gove said the financial performance was negatively impacted by inventory constraints as we partnered with our suppliers to navigate both micro and macroeconomic challenges. (in the retail world, suppliers ship to a retailer and expect money back in 30 to 60 days; given the company is losing money. suppliers tighten the money requirements before they give inventory).

The company said in the fall they had $850 million in the bank but burned through $325 million in the 2nd quarter.

Analysts are expecting the company will go through $1.5 billion in the next 2 years.

The company has asked bondholders to swap their holdings for new debt but cancelled the deal because there were only a few takers. All of Bed Bath & Beyond’s assets are being used to loan money, the maximum the bondholders will allow is $375 million.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, when a company declares it is seeking all options, you may like the company and want it to succeed but listen to the bondholders. All companies rely on debt to run their business and if it is going well, then the debt will be unsecured. The more the troubles of the company are brought to life, the more the bondholders want secure debt or tied to various assets of the company. When a company is not doing well, the value of the unsecured debt falls as investors expect cents on the dollar, rather than a full dollar. Even if you really like a company, listen to the debtholders for if the company has an opportunity to comeback, the bondholders have to become equity holders. Will they and do they want to?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If you are an early adopter of technology, then every January you wait for the CES Tech Show in Las Vegas. This is a new year, and every industry and service will have their convention, where you can see or listen either in person or on Zoom the latest trends in the industry. The first show is the technology show, but all cities have convention centers, and they need to be filled on a regular basis. Some conventions have more impact with the leading companies and companies which need introductions or partnerships with the leaders. In the case of technology, the CES is the place to go first.

In an article by Haleluya Hadero of the Associated Press, more than 1,000 startups were showcasing their products hoping for the all-important buzz and looking for investors to help the business grow. At the show, the big names in tech are represented as more than 3,000 companies were registered to attend or paid money to attend. (if you would like an idea of the show, the Net staring Sandra Bullock).

In keeping with the times, we are in, many companies showed products that could be used sooner than if a number of things happen and stars align, but if they do not the projects never saw the light of the day.

One reason to be at this particular convention for a startup is the organizer the Consumer Technology Association has a program called CTA Match. This program pairs startups with investors who might be interested in their products. Brian Comiskey. the director of thematic programs said many companies have showcased items that can be rolled out soon or are innovations that could be deployed if they have the right investors.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives noted the clock struck midnight in terms of tech investors giving money away free money. There’s a lot more competing for capital.

Saving money has now become a big priority for the tech industry, a shift from the past when more analysts and investors were more focused on how companies were growing.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, for your investments, you can see how the industry is doing through conventions. Who is buying space? who has a little display? At conventions there is a gathering from people in the industry, people wanting to sell to the industry and people who want to get into the industry and the curious, hopefully wherever you are you will always be curious.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.