We all make calculations and assumptions on the news we hear. If we know something about the subject it could be closer to calculations, if we do not know we rely on assumptions. The headline above is the CEO of an organization that publishes magazines is moving to a company best known for toys. Will it work?

In an article by Katie Robertson of the New York Times News Service, Conde Nast CEO Roger Lynch is leaving the company after 7 years to become the new CEO of Mattel.

Conde Nast’s board of directors began a search for a new CEO, however the interim CEO will be Mike Perlis, the lead independent director and former CEO of Forbes Media.

7 years ago, Roger Lynch took over Conde Nast when the company was struggling financially with losses of more than $100 million annually. He tried to move the company away from print and focus on events and video.

Conde Nast publications include Vogue, Glamour, The New Yorker, GQ, Vanity Fair, Architectural Digest and many others. The company has gone through rounds of cost cutting and will have to navigate changes from AI which has sharply lowered traffic to online publications coming from search engines and altered how audiences consume content.

Mattel best known for Barbie and Hot Wheels has tried to expand its brands into film, TV and games The movie Barbie was a global hit, but Masters of the Universe did not do well, but found success in streaming.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, it could be companies are becoming closer to each other than very distinct markets, so the CEO’s background is a very good thing to be coming from a different industry. In the past, people moved companies, but they tended to be similar types of companies. If Mr. Lynch is a success, and we hope he is, when a new CEO is announced we can make more calculations and less assumptions.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In many areas of life, the true answer is it is complicated. This helps explains oil prices because on a simple terms, if the war between the US and Iran was over and the tankers moving goods including oil through the Strait, that should lead to fall in oil prices. Oil is moving through the Strait but oil prices have not fallen, why?

In an article by Peter Eavis of the New York Times News Service, according to oil analysts, oil tankers moving oil are getting back on track. In September, an average of 10 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait on a daily basis according to Klper, a firm that tracks oil tankers. In addition, 6 million barrels of crude a day has left the Persian Gulf states by pipeline.

Before the war, the average was 19 million barrels of oil left the region daily.

Despite the success in getting more oil out, the per barrel price is still well above where it was before the war.

Even with the recovery in Gulf oil exports, the global supply is below what the world needs, says Dan Pickering, chief investment officer for Pickering Energy Partners, a financial services firm based in Houston.

The 10 million barrels is an improvement, but below the 16 million barrels before the war.

The strait is not open to navigation, because it is not safe, Arsenio Dominguez, secretary general of the International Maritime Organization, a UN agency, according to the group 85 ships have been attacked and 24 martiners have died.

The 3 big names of tanker tracking are Kpler, Vortexa and TankerTrackers.com. In August the numbers were 5.9 million, 6.4 million and 5.5 million respectively. A very large tanker can carry 2 million barrels of oil.

The good news is oil is moving however not at the same rate it was before the war. In addition, the US Navy has a large presence in the region and is that sustainable?

Linking to dividend paying stocks, similar to most things in life, it is more complicated than it looks, but there are some metrics to the seen. It is relatively easy to make a profit – Sales Price is higher than cost of goods. However, to make a profit, you need to have consistency and relatively stable markets. When you buy a profitable company, you always want to know how the company makes it money that leads to profits and how consistent it is. What seems simple is actually complicated, but when profits come every year, it feels simple.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Companies can reward shareholders in numerous ways including making profits everyday – they can pay dividends or buy shares back. The way a share buyback works is every company trade on a Price/ Earnings per share multiple. If the number is the P/E Ratio is 10, if shares are bought back, the price/earnings falls and the price has increase to get back to the 10 P/E Ratio.

In an article by Anhata Rooprai of the Associated Press, one of the biggest buybacks will be done by Nvidia. The buyback authorized by the Board of Nvidia will be $150 billion which is higher than Apple’s $110 billion in 2024.

With strong demand for its pricey processors, generating billions in cash, Nvidia is using part of the windfall to boost its remaining buyback capacity to $235 billion, which it expects to deploy through fiscal,

Nvidia shares were trading at about 16.5 times 12-month multiple since January 2015, and well below the 15-year average of 30, according to LSEG data.

Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, said the buyback echoes Apple’s playbook of using repurchases to support its stock as growth slows and valuation multiples come under pressure.

Stock buybacks have fallen 50%, the last growth was due to corporate tax cuts, the bulk of the money went into stock buybacks.

Nvidia forecast about 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, reassuring investors the growth of AI is expected to continue.

Nvidia ended the July quarter with $22.44 billion in cash and cash equivalents. In last announced a $80 billion share buyback in May.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, whether it is stock buyback or paying dividends, the beneficiary is the shareholder, but the premise is the company making profits. As long as the company is making profits, which is a good thing, some money can flow to shareholders and total return is important number to note.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

During the election and since then, President Trump has talked about a great manufacturing rebirth and every once in a while, the President will say manufacturing is back. For those of us in northeast of the US, at the height of the automobile employment, a manufacturing plant from the big 3 – GM, Ford and Chrysler meant about 5,000 jobs in the community. Then there were a great deal of spinoff jobs to service the people in the plant. For many communities it was the best of times. Unfortunately for manufacturing in the present times, robots are becoming more and more predominate. If there are lots of robots, there are not many jobs for people.

In an article written by James Paton of the New York Times News Service, last year, China accounted for almost 3 out of 5 robots deployed globally, boosting installations to more than 350,000. A decade ago, China’s installations outnumbered Germany’s by 3-1, now it is 14-1.

The widening gap exemplifies the growing economic threat that China poses to Germany and Europe as a whole. A flood of low-cost cars, chemicals and machinery from China has hollowed out Europe’s factories contributing to the loss of 14,000 industrial jobs in Germany and fueling calls for tougher trade measures on Beijing.

Today almost half of the 5 million robots working in factories worldwide are in China, according to the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Brussels.

Germany ranked 3rd in the world behind South Korea and Singapore with about 450 robots for every 10,000 employees in 2024.

The US added 38,000 robots last year. Citing national-security concerns the FCC announced a ban on new models of foreign-made humanoid robots. (one company which makes humanoid robots is UBTECH).

It is estimated there are 7,000 humanoid robots – those at least 4’6″ were sold globally. More than half the manufacturers are in China. Although, humanoids are far from becoming more autonomous machines that can perceive and respond in real time in the physical world and China’s costs are lower than western competitors, to be commercially viable costs would have to go down 50% Mercator found.

If you go back to 2009, Germany had been leading China in robot installation.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, robotics are the trend for manufacturing and if companies that you own do not have robots something is wrong and you should seek alternatives. Robots work 24/7 and no compensation is needed for benefits, just maintenance costs. If you watch You Tube videos you can watch many videos on manufacturing with robots, that is the trend and will continue into the future with AI.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In President Trump’s second term, his opinion outranks everyone. The only problem is his opinion is hard to pin down because one day he is for something, the next day he is against it. This makes for unknown policy making.

In an article by Rita Trichur of the Globe and Mail, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for talks at the White House. This was a regularly scheduled event which allowed President Trump to meet with stakeholders and ensure the American posiiton.

One of the groups that met with President Trump is the trade groups for autos in the US including the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, the American Automotive Policy Council and the National Automobile Dealers Association. This a collection of trade groups representing Ford, GM, Stellantis, and foreign manufacturers such as Toyota, VW and Hyundai that build cars in America.

There biggest point was to maintain the prohibition of Chinese automakers from assembling, importing or selling their cars in the US.

Then President Trump went on Fox News and said, if the Chinese were to build cars in the US, I would be okay with it. Japan does it. Then he said he would be against Chinese car companies going to Mexico and exporting to them to the US.

President Trump has also said that Chinese vehicles represent both an economic and national security threat to the US and vowed to unleash a golden age of American manufacturing.

President Trump killed federal incentives for American companies making electric vehicles and has waged trade wars with both Mexico and Canada which has driven up prices up American vehicles.

Washington maintains tariffs of more than 100% on Chinese EVs and a prohibition on the use of Chinese software that is capable of collecting user data.

In June of this year, the administration banned Polestar, which is owned by a Chinese company from selling in the US.

In June, Volvo which is owned by the Chinese company Geely Holdings, to continue sell vehicles with its connected car technology.

In Europe, Ford is doing a joint venture with Chinese battery manufacturer CATL and Geely in Spain. Ford’s CEO James Farley received a letter by US Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy which scolded him.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, in prior administrations, the Cabinet through a more detailed analysis approved position. In that process various trade groups and associations had important input, and the Cabinet made political decisions. Under the second term, President Trump makes the decision but on many issues, he is not tied to anyone position which means he is often all over the place and the last voice he hears is the one he talks about. Perhaps in the next administration, things will go back to what was considered normal.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

When you are investing your money for the long term, ideally, you are looking for companies that can weather whatever economic cycle we happen to be in. The company will not only make money, but when the turn comes, it will do even better than before. These are rare companies. it is a rare if we change company to countries.

In an article written by Rebecca F. Elliot and Keith Bradsher of the New York Times News Service, China is becoming on of those rare countries. For decades, analysts could easily say problem with Middle East oil, problem with Chinese economy as China is dependent on Midde Eastern oil. The war between the US and Iran has changed perspectives.

China has spent money stockpiling huge amounts of oil, built extra refining capacity and invested in coal and other alternatives, so it has the ability to ride out the effects of Middle East oil supply changes.

China is dominant in making and implementing solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles (EVs). This means that a threat to cut off supply of Middle Eastern oil is less of a concern in Beijing.

China’s massive oil reserves and refinery capacity, paired with its ability to run its economy on a variety of energy sources allowed the country to slash the purchase of imports by 23% in the first 6 months compared to a year ago.

This reduction in demand has both caught many analysts by surprise and it means energy prices have not gone even higher in price. Under the normal conditions, Daan Truyven, who heads oil research for Goldman Sachs, predicted oil prices would have been $10 higher.

China is one of the biggest importers of oil, but they are also one of the biggest refiners of oil. Early in the war against Iran, China ordered severe restrictions on exports of refined fuels like gasoline and diesel, both to conserve domestic supplies and to punish countries at odds with China’s foreign policies.

EVs now make up 14% of the passenger cars on the road in China. This translates into using 1.5 million barrels of oil less than it used to. According to the International Energy Agency it shaved off 1% of global oil demand.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, companies seek out alternatives to spend less money on a regular basis in case a shock to the system might affect them. Companies are more energy efficient which means they use less energy, if the price goes down a huge savings, if the price of energy goes up, the costs are bearable. That is a good thing for the company and when you find a company doing such things, you can put it on your radar to buy at good valuations. The reason being all things being equal the company will do better than most and that is good for you.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Similar to every politician, they would like to have the cake and eat it to. On almost every issue, they often promise or promote a perfect outcome, however the reality is far from perfect and by the time it comes to a reckoning, they have moved on. An example is interest rates and inflation.

In an article by Howard Schneider and Jacob Bogage of Reuters, before President Trump became President his principal occupation was a real estate developer. The world of real estate development loves low interest rates because most of the money to do the work is borrowed. Once the building is completed, then rents come in and sometimes inflation is a good thing because it pushes up the value of the building. President Trump often talks about having a 1% interest rate, is that feasible? practical? and even desirable?

Analysts believe if the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) changed rates from 3.75% to 4% and lowered it to 1%, the markets would react and not positively. There would be a massive dislocation of the global financial system and end up with the US government paying more to borrow than it does in present bond markets.

J. Benson Durham, founder of DASM investment research firm, believes it would be cataclysmic. The reason is treasury rates would climb as investors priced up higher inflation. Countries such as Germany could offer a bit more as money flowed to more stable countries and the dollar would plummet.

President Trump is going into the midterms with mortgage rates near 7%, prices for ground beef and gas rising. Inflation has increased partly due to the President’s policies regarding tariffs and the war in Iran which increased energy costs.

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure was 2% and the Fed does not expect that number to happen until 2029 at the earliest. As well as the Fed Chaiman Kevin Warsh is an inflation hawk. He really wants inflation to fall and price stability to be the norm, but it was unanimous when the Fed increased rates.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, a low inflation is great for dividend paying stocks because total returns of stock price gains and dividend yields often exceed the corresponding bond rates. However, when interest rates go up, the alternative in fixed income securities looks very attractive. If you can buy US government bonds or top tier corporate bonds with high yields, it would be wise to shift some money out of dividend stocks. Just remember economic cycles happen and be prepared to shift back.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Whenever there is a trend and it is goes on for a period of time, an acronym will come along because they are easier to remember. For example FANG was the go to trade meaning Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google. Since that acronym was given two of those companies have changed their name, and over time new acronyms had to be established to add in other companies such as Nvidia and whatever companies benefited from AI.

You have likely heard and read about data centers to run AI. As an investor one of the many reasons you want to be built and running is what happened to Meta on September 8th.

In an article from Reuters, Meta owns Facebook among other companies, and they launched Muse as its new AI agent. Muse can send emails, book travel and complete transactions such as selling a car on behalf of a user. The basic version is free with subscriptions at $20 a month and $100 a month for heavier users.

JPMorgan analysts believe that Muse has the potential to become the most widely used consumer AI application since ChatGPT.

The Muse app available on iOS and Android, but released in Canada and the US has clocked 2.8 million downloads in the first 12 days. If you compare that to ChatGPT, they had 1.3 million.

Wall Street sent Meta’s shares up 11% and boosted chipmakers such as AMD and Intel because it will be a boon for the already significantly bottlenecked CPU market.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, all dividend paying companies use AI and eventually CEOs will explain how the company is using AI. If the analysts particularly like it, the shares should go up. AI is expected to increase productivity, allow companies to understand their people that buy their services and products better and have better products and services. Let us hope that is the case.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In every war, it is easy to see the losers, those fighting the war, but on the opposite side there will be winners.

In an article by Simon Romero and Rebecca F Elliot of The New York Times News Service, one of the winners is the country of Guyana. The country is located beside Venezuela in South America.

One of the reasons it is a winner, is ExxonMobil has been drilling offshore and has discovered very large oil fields.

The capital of Guyana is Georgetown, and it is seeing luxury trappings of wealth such as more Ferraris and Lamborghinis creep through traffic, new steakhouses and opulent weddings are the talk of the town.

The country has 1 million people and is estimated to take in more than $6.5 billion in oil revenues and that will increase. Oil production is about 900,000 barrels per day and that is expected to increase to 1.7 million a day by 2030.

Economic growth reached a staggering 33% in the first half of the year, according to government data, making Guyana the fastest growing economies in the world.

Many in Guyana complain that a small elite is amassing fortunes while the rest face rising inflation, rampant corruption, a housing shortage and substandard public services.

The World Bank has noted Guyana’s rise to high-income income status. Annual per capital income stands at $32,000 a year higher than all of its neighboring countries.

The Iran war’s energy shock has revealed a paradox: Guyana produces lots of oil but lacks the infrastructure to turn it into fuels like gasoline and diesel. Reliant on imports, Guyana faces high electricity costs and briefly ran short of fuel this spring.

President Irfaan Ali is trying to do the right thing for its citizens such as legislation requiring foreign energy companies to utilize local businesses and workers; a creation of a sovereign wealth fund with strict limits on what leaders can immediately withdraw (Norway has strict which they actually embraced so the fund is the biggest in the world).

Linking to dividend paying stocks, what is not to like about a market which has rising disposable income, all the other things that come with it. With a population of 1 million, it is not a large market for mass produced goods, but luxury brands will be found in the country. If the country can stick to its rule for the sovereign fund and add infrastructure to benefit the people of the country, businesses will flock to the country because all the necessary supports will be in place. In the meantime, watching how the country develops in the next few years will be interesting.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.