In the world, there are always either companies or countries wanting to get bigger and there can be numerous benefits from it. Once in a while, they will come across some who has access to resources to fight back and the fight will continue but is it worth it? There might be extremely practical reasons why the aggressor needs to win.
In an article by Paul Sonne of the New York Times News Service, an example of a country fighting a war that it its mind was supposed to be a relatively easy experience. The war has gone on for 4 years and has changed Russia.
Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian central bank official who is now a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, noted you have lots of money spend on tanks, shells, bombs, military benefits and other things – no long-lasting value, nothing that works on what we call development.
Today, nearly 40% of Russia’s federal budget is devoted to the military and security. Another 9% goes for interest payments on debt.
Russia has enormous oil and gas reserves and previous to the war was Europe’s biggest customer. That has changed and Russia is burning through its National Wealth Fund, a rainy day financial cushion was up to $113 billion which is now down to $55 billion.
The world has been spending money on AI, Russia is spending on weapons. Given the large number of computer graduates from Russia, one may have thought Russia had an advantage, unfortunately Russia is a laggard.
With the war with Ukraine has meant fewer foreign direct investment and because of higher military spending, interest rates for the citizens are higher than normal.
It is estimated that 325,000 troops have died, and the birthrate has fallen which means the population of Russia was around 145 million and the most pessimistic scenario could fall towards 100 million by 2100.
As with every war, the longer it lasts, the more the average person wants to end it. Some are protesting and the government tries to stop or slow it down both by a show of force and restricting social media.
The war has divided the Russian economy – businesses in the military are doing well. The rest of Russia is mostly struggling as oil and gas revenues decrease, manufacturing slows, small business tries to cope with higher taxes and costly loans and the average person feeling pinched by higher prices and utility bills.
Linking to dividend paying stocks, in all businesses there is a one time or another a disagreement that takes time and energy and resources away from the core business of the company. It could be a potential merger, a lawsuit, but something that seems to gain a life of its own. There tends to be consequences and in the words of a former BP CEO feeling the pressures of an oil spill, I just want my old life back. What does it take to go back to normal?
There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.