Dividends and Petrobras seeks to raise nearly $27 billion by 2023

In Brazil, if you look offshore and under the sea, there are billions of barrels trapped below the salt line. The good news is everyone knows it is there, the bad news to bring the oil to the country will cost billions. Petrobras has been linked to many payments to politicians as it boosted its debt load of $88 billion. To lessen the debt load, and still keep investing according to an article by Gram Slattery and Alexander Alper of Reuters will try to raise $26.9 billion in asset sales and partnerships from now to 2023.

Petrobras in early December released its 5 year plan, and the assumption is oil prices will have a reasonable increase in prices to help the producer. Brazil also has a new government coming in that will need the oil revenues to balance the government books.

The oil company expects a rate of return on capital of 11% in 2020 and the ratio of net debt to earnings should fall to 1.5 from 2.5.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, state oil companies can be tremendous drivers of wealth as can be seen in Norway, but somewhere along the line it seems many countries do not spread the wealth as much as others. It seems Petrobras helped the political elite rather than the average consumer, but things can change as long as those billions of barrels lie under the ocean.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and Group claims major hack of Novo Nordisk, attempted $25 million extortion

One of the major divisions of every company is security including cybersecurity. The growth of cybersecurity continues and every year it will get bigger and more important.

In an article by Reuters, a cyber extortion group claimed to have stolen more than a terabyte of data from pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk and said it is going to sell parts of the data after unsuccessfully demanding $25 million from the company.

FulcrumSec, a cyber extortion group said it spent more than 2 months in Novo Nordisk’s networks stealing data. It said that data included company source code, proprietary information on released and unreleased drugs, trial data, and unreleased drugs, trial data, and unreleased drugs, trial data, employee and doctor and patient data, information related to company processing facilities and internal AI model information.

Thomas Willkan head of research at cybersecurity firm Lab-1 has closely tracked Fulcrum Sec and the hacking group is usually quite legit in terms of both their capabilities and also their claims.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, there is a quote by John Dillinger, why rob the banks, that is where the money is. The world has changed and the money is still at the banks but it is also on the internet. Cyber security is important and most of the time when cyber criminals get into companies, the news does not get into the press.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and Shipping firms cautious of US-Iran deal

In many companies one of the most important methods to decide how it is doing is to examine the logistics or operations. On You Tube, watched a documentary about Jerome, Arizona. The town is beside a mountain called Cleopatra Hill which contain billions of copper for the United Verde Mine and paid over $200 million in dividends to its owner William Clark who was one of the richest men in America from 1888-1925. After Mr. Clark died, the mine was bought by Phelps Dodge Corporation. Before Mr. Clark, people knew about the copper, but it was located 26 mines from the nearest railroad and none of the land was flat. It cost Mr. Clark $100 million to build a railroad for those 26 mines and then the mine was profitable.

In an article by Jenny Gross and Peter Eavis of the New York Times News Service, President Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz will be open for regular shipping. That is good news, because it is one of the chokepoints around the world that needs to be open for shippers to move goods around the world.

Just do not expect a steady stream of traffic to start the following week. It will take longer.

S.V. Anchan, Chair of Safesea Goup believes there are lot of questions that need to be clarified. He needs a clear commitment from Iran they will not attack his ships.

Harry Vafias, CEO of StealthGas said Let’s hope this time it is for real.

Kpler, a ship tracking firm said 500 large commercial vessels remain in the gulf.

Andreas Enger, CEO of the Norwegian shipping company Hoegh Autoliners, said news of the agreement alone was not enough to allow for the immediate resumption of ships through the straight.

Let’s us hope it is the start. The process could take weeks or even months for him to feel comfortable sending ships into the Persian Gulf.

Jakob P Larsen, chief security officer at Bimco, the world’s largest shipping association, wants a neutral body such as the International Maritime Organization to identify safe routes and a sequence for ships to exit.

Do ships hug the Iranian coast or the Omani coastline? who will sweep the Strait for mines? Safety is the big concern.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, for the investments you make, pay attention to the logistics, does the company get its products and services to customers when they want it and will use it? Many years ago, read an article about someone who was shopping at a store and saw a run in a ladies stocking on the mannequins. It was a symptom or sign the company was in trouble because the standards were slipping. As an investor you need to keep your eyes open.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and How Utahns took on a proposed data center on the Great Salt Lake

As an investor you tend to have a mind sight that business do the right thing, sometimes they do, sometimes they do not but business seeks opportunity. One of the great drivers of the US economy is data centers, and it is attracting billions of dollars in investment. Are all data centers equal, no but there seems to be a great demand for them.

In an article by Jack Healy of the New York Times News Service, Kevin O’Leary who many readers have seen on Shark Tank invested in a company that wants to build the largest data center in the world outside of Salt Lake City, Utah.

Data centers are wonderful to run large model AI, but they also need water, natural gas and relatively inexpensive land.

Mr. O’Leary’s Stratos Project did the correct political thing, he called upon Governor Spencer Cox to start the hype and gain approval from the regulations the state would require for the project.

Then people have a say. It is important to note in Utah, generally the Republic Party candidates win the elections. However with data centers everyone has an opinion and given Great Salt Lake is drying up, would the data center have claims for the water or would individuals? Two town halls were packed with people and public comments have reached into the thousands against.

Two commissioners who voted yes are facing Republican primary challengers who would say no. The Utah State Senate President who championed the deal, has called for cuts to its size.

Mr. O’Leary had cut back the project in half to cover 20,000 acres.

One long time resident of Utah noted there is a lot of top-down follow the leader culture. But something has changed, it is torches and pitchforks out there.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, as someone who benefits from companies making profits, you like the idea the company continually proposes new projects to ensure it makes profits. Not every project is great, some of them should not have been done in the first place. Ideally in the company there is some sort of balance which allows for the company and the community it settles it to benefit.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and China needs less fuel that previously thought

When you are investing you are projecting what will happen in the future and often it is based on what has happened in the past. If a company is well run in the past, there are few reasons not to expect the companies to be run in the future, thus it should have similar results. The issue is what changes the projections?

If you think about China, it is the world’s second largest economy and the center of global manufacturing. That means it will consume a great deal of energy. If you add that China is the leading customer of Russia and Iran, that adds perspective into what is happening in the Middle East.

In an article by Chen Aizhu, Sam Li, and Lewis Jackson of Reuters, China the world’s largest importer of oil needs less oil than previously thought.

Gasoline sales at Sinopec, which runs China’s biggest network of petrol stations and is the world’s largest refiner, dropped 8% on a yearly basis in April, diesel fell 6%.

Fuel use in China had been dropping in recent years owning to slowing economic growth and the rise of electric cars and trucks, but the recent declines has caught industry players by surprise.

Goldman Sachs estimates the drop in gasoline and related products by 20% in April.

Alternatives such as rail travel grew by 10% according to the Ministry of Transport data.

The China Charging Alliance grew 69% from a year earlier as the Chinese EV fleet became larger.

About half of China’s crude oil consumption is refined into gasoline or diesel.

May imports slumped 29% to their lowest level in 8 years to 7.8 million barrels a day, after a 20% fall in April. The last time China had a dropped in fuel was during the pandemic, but that was an imposed shutdown by the government or lack of mobility for the population.

Sinopec expects national demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to fall 10% in the 2nd and 3rd quarter.

The Chinese transport ministry said 1/4 of all vehicles on the highways over the May Day holiday were electrics or hybrids, 1/3 more than the previous year.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, we all make expectations about the future and most of them rely on some assumptions from the past. In the US, the Trump administration encourages gasoline powdered vehicles, in China the government encourages EV. Both populations are mobile, but one is more connected to the world price of oil. Is that good? will something change in the future? If it was to change, which companies would have the advantage?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and US Judge blocks Trump’s $100,000 H-1B Visa fee for skilled foreign workers

If you think about the Trump administration the second term, one of the many topics that would come up is the number of lawsuits or the use of the legal system has dramatically increased. Generally, with government, there is a process and although it sometimes seems lengthy, in the end, people abide with the decision making. President Trump’s administration wanted to speed things up and uses executive decisions. This leads to anyone in opposition to using the courts to slow things down or turn back the clock.

In an article from Reuters, a federal judge stuck down a $100,000 fee President Trump imposed on new H-1B visas for highly skilled workers, concluding that it constituted an unlawful tax Congress never authorized.

The lawsuit was launched by 20 Democratic state attorneys general (if the President was Democratic, you could change it to Republican state attorneys general).

The administration argued that the fee constituted a lawful monetary policy penalty that the President was authorized to impose under federal immigration law, which gave him the power to restrict the entry of certain foreign nationals when he deems it “detrimental to the interests of the US”.

The Judge said, the fee was not a penalty but a tax and the President lacked any authorization from Congress to issue. You can called the fee anything you wish, but it is a tax. Taxes need Congress’ approval.

The administration will appeal the decision.

The H1-B offers 65,000 visas annually, with another 20,000 visas for workers with advanced degrees, approved for 3-6 years. Technology companies are very dependent on the visas.

Prior to President Trump raising the fee to $100,000 the fee was between $2,000 and $5,000. It should be noted if a person was hired on a student visa, there was no fee and the bulk of H1-B visa are in this category.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, every company has a legal department and often in the past it was important to have because companies get sued. For lawyers, process and policies are the important road to follow – what process or policies does the company have in place to ensure whatever happened was an exception not the rule. Then the lawyers follow the process or policies – did the person do what was expected? In recent years, as more people use the court system to settle disputes, the role of the lawyer has changed and become more integrated with the senior management. It is rare for a company not to be have been sued, although the best outcome is the person was doing something that followed the process and policies.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and High fuel costs to trigger airline failures and consolidation, industry chief says

A number of years ago, Warren Buffett said he would never own airline stocks, because there are too many failures in the industry or it is hard to make money. In recent years, the best time to buy airline stocks was after the pandemic. The shares were very low and just by returning to what was normal, money was to be made. The industry has returned to normal, what is the future for airlines?

In an article by Joe Brock of Reuters, at the annual IATA submit in Rio de Janeiro, Willie Walsh director-general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects that higher fuel costs will expect some airlines to go out of business and others to be acquired by larger carriers.

Airlines are expected to protect margins by cutting unprofitable routes, while fares which have surged are unlikely to come down soon.

Budget carriers have been among the hardest hit, lacking higher-margin revenue streams such as premium cabins, high-paying travelers and credit-card loyalty programs.

In the US the big three carriers are United Airlines, Delta Air Lines and American Airlines.

In Europe, the best run company is Ryanair a low-cost airline which continues to have a strong performance.

Mr. Walsh does not expect the United Airlines and American Airlines to merge. Both companies are open to buying airport slots, gates or other assets.

The Iran conflict has upended traffic flows through the Middle East hubs such as Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, creating acute challenges for Gulf carriers including Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad.

The popular carriers account for 14% of global capacity. Mr. Walsh expects the Gulf carriers to regain their important position in the market.

Adding to the strain is the slow pace of aircraft deliveries from Boeing and Airbus, along with engine delays from GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney limiting airlines’ ability to expand fleets and improve efficiency. Part of the reasons for the delay are post pandemic supply chain disruptions and political trade disputes.

An alternative is Comac from China but they need certification in Europe and the US (without certification a plane can not be sold). Cormac uses Western engines and avionics.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, people fly and there is money to be made in the airline business, although most of the time looking at supplier companies seems to be more profitable. When there is money to be made, there is money to be lost, if you do buy, ensure you know your alternatives.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and If you can’t beat’em: Struggling to compete, carmakers in Europe embrace China’s EV giants

Most people grew up in car culture, particularly after WW II when the President Eisenhower looked at the transportation system in the USA and bemoaned the time it took to transport military goods across the country. The President’s solution was the interstate highway system which changed the way Americans connected to the car industry as suburbs grew as dominate place for Americans to live. At the time, one of the VP of GM said as GM goes, so does the US and for many years that was true. Times have changed, as European and Japanese companies made inroads into the big 3 of GM, Ford and Chrysler. As oil prices increased, fuel economy increased, hybrids increased market share and the latest is the EV market.

In an article by Eric Reguly of the Globe and Mail, less that a year ago, Chinese carmakers were seen as a threat to their European counterparts. How did that happen?

Nissan is owned by a Japan company, it owns a plant in Sunderland, located in northeast England. It was built to build 600,000 cars a year and has achieved full production in the past. Last year, it produced 300,000 cars or half production. Empty factories are capital killers – sunk costs that bleed cash and lock up liquidity.

In early June, Nissan and Chery, one of China’s biggest EV makers, signed a deal to start producing Chery car brands in 2027.

Stellantis, owner of Jeep, Fiat and Peugeot brands bought 21% of China’s Leapmotor and formed a joint venture to produce EVs in Spain. VW and Chinese XPeng are in talks to share factory capacity in Europe.

In spite of import tariffs in Europe as high as 45%, the Chinese EV companies deliver more bank for your buck.

Data from the International Energy Agency leave no doubt that Chinese EVs are beginning to bury the competition. Last year they accounted for 60% of global EV sales. That’s double the combined total European and American models. In China 55% of new car sales are EVs, the IEA says.

China seems on the verge of dominating the EV industry in the same way it dominates the global solar panel market. About 15 years ago, it used massive state subsidies and capital investment, low-cost financing, engineering expertise and cheap labor to destroy the solar-panel competition. The same formula is being applied to EVs. China also largely controls the production and refining of many of the materials essential for EV production, including graphite, lithium and cobalt.

Joern Buss, head of the Americas automotive practice at the Arthur D. Little business consultancy, says that Chinese EV makers have a virtually unassailable cost advantage. It can take a European auto company 3 to 4 years (36 to 48 months) to develop a new car; Chinese makers can compress their time to 24 to 30 months. The engineering costs are also much cheaper.

The US car industry has a different dilemma. The 100% tariff on Chinese vehicles meant they are priced out of the market under President Trump. If the tariffs fall, what will the American companies do? American consumers at one time very brand loyal, but consumers are more value oriented and less brand sensitive than their European counterparts. When Chinese EVs hit the US showrooms, they will could make American models look like antiques.

The future seems to be the European, Japanese and American carmakers will have to form partnerships with their Chinese counterparts. They may lose their identities to stay alive.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, tariffs have a role to protect companies but eventually the marketplace will decide. At the moment, the moderately priced EVs are better than anything that can be built in America, if that continues to happen GM and Ford will be merging with a Chinese company.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and Cuba to suspend Visa, Mastercard transactions over US sanctions

The world runs on credit, there is a donut company that says the America runs on Dunkin, but I digest. Business runs on credit and without credit the economy automatically smaller and it is much harder to do anything, because cash is king. If a region is dependent on tourism, most tourists do not bring lots of cash or travelers checks, they bring their credit and debit cards. You can imagine what happens when a country that relies on tourist dollars suspends the use of credit cards.

In an article by Dave Sherwood and Kylie Madry of Reuters, the country of Cuba suspended VISA and Mastercard transactions by the central bank citing US sanctions. Recently partly because of higher prices of air fuel, the supply of air fuel meant any tourist flying into Cuba could not be guaranteed to fly out.

Cuba’s central bank said a foreign partner that had previously processed credit-card transactions for Cuba had decided to limit operations after a US executive order on May 1 that vastly broadened sanctions on commerce with Cuba.

Credit-card transactions have historically been handled by a foreign bank and Fincimex SA, a financial arm of FAESA, a military-run conglomerate targeted with sanctions by the Trump administrations.

The US accuses GAESA of secretly hoarding profits from the country’s most valuable industries for the benefit of the military and Cuban elite. GAESA denies those claims.

There are speculations that the US will invade Cuba at some point in the next few years, which is why there has been an exodus of businesses from Cuba including foreign hotel, airlines, and global shipping firms.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, if you use Cuba as an example, slowly the sanctions imposed by the US has strangled the economy of Cuba. Similar to most sanctions, it starts slowly and builds stream and eventually everyone sees the results. The issue is when do people react or move to alternatives?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and Iran war jeopardizes travel to tourism-dependent nations

In a globalized world, one of the great things about it is the ability to buy an airline ticket and go traveling. If you ask people what they want to do if they had more money or won some money, travelling would be near the top of the list. The key to travelling is the cost. A number of years ago, in Europe the low-cost airlines made it essentially less expensive to fly than drive and for many years, thousands of people travelled more.

In an article by Anton L. Delgado and Chan Ho-him of the Associated Press, all around the world, economies depend on tourism. In Thailand, tourism contributes 13 % of the GDP, it is 9% of GDP in Vietnam. Tourists bring in much-needed foreign currency for import-dependent economies such as the Philippines and Nepal.

Jet fuel shortages and surging costs have led carriers such as Vietnam Airlines, Air Asia, Cathay Pacific to cut flights and readjusting schedules.

Airspace closures across the Persian Gulf early in the war and the intermittent closures of certain Gulf airports cut off key layover locations for Asia-bound flights or forced commercial airplanes to take longer, costlier routes.

Lavinia Lau, Cathay’s chief customer and commercial officer noted jet fuel prices remain at highly elevated prices and have increased cost pressures.

Higher airfares and weaker travel confidence can quickly spill over into household livelihoods and public venues in economies where visitor arrivals are a major source of jobs, income and foreign exchange, according to a report by the UN Development Program.

Travel is often the first expense people cut when the economy lessens. Although, it is not the same, there are plenty of low-cost experiences that are around where you live, that you may have overlooked or not gone in recent years. In many urbanized areas, there is cottage country not too far away which is good to go on either day trips or weekend trips.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, one of the options with the income you receive from dividends is to travel or save for travelling, it is wonderful to receive the money in the account on a regular basis. As long as the company makes a profit, the shares will tend to trade at a premium and the overall return should be healthy. As long as you are healthy, you can think of where you want to travel to?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.