War is not good, it is not good for the people involved and not good for any business not related to the defense industry, however war does exist and will continue. As investors, we tend to want to invest in domestic companies and want the country to be at peace or not at war within its border. As long as that happens, the economic cycles continue and you can tailor your investments to the economic cycle.

In an article from the Associated Press, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, suggests that Ukraine is winning, even though there is no winner in the war. Russia was the dominant force, it has oil and gas reserves, a larger army and military machine and for 100 years the links between Ukraine and Russia were very strong, including most Ukrainians speak Russian, as well as the best universities for Ukrainians was in Russia.

In the last year, Ukraine has become very good at drones, which is less expensive than military equipment, and the range and level of expansive capacity has gotten longer. This changes the strategy of drone warfare. Because of the scorched earth policy of the Nazis in WW II, where they burned everything done, the world declared things such as infrastructure such as bridges and roads to be off limits or war crime possibilities, when the war is done. Military units and supply lines are always targets. The next target is energy infrastructure, so citizens suffer, but what is consider normal life can continue.

Russia has one of the largest oil and gas reserves in the world, so every once in while Ukraine’s drones hit refineries to ensure gas shortages or Russia cannot export oil and gas, which reduces their budget surpluses.

Recently Ukraine has been targeting Wildberries distribution centers. If you use or know Amazon, the process works that multiple small business send their products to Amazon distribution centers and then Amazon trucks deliver the products. In Russia, Wildberries does the same thing. The owner Tatyana Kim was worth $8.1 billion. The attacks on 20 Wildberries distribution centers across Russia meant billions of dollars worth of merchandise was burnt. Multiple small businesses have no income and on line shopping in Russia has a set back. In addition, to build the distribution centers, Wildberries took out loans at VTB (one of Russia’s biggest banks) and other lenders, paying the money back will be a challenge.

An estimated 500,000 to 800,000 sellers use Wildberries. The company has 100,000 retail storefront distribution points.

The government has asked lenders to restructure loans to small and medium sized businesses that lost merchandise. Wildberries has pledged to support sellers with discounts on storage, free transfer of goods to other sites, discounted loans and other measures.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, for those companies that operate in a war zone, have flexibility and many contingencies or Plan A, B, C, D….. is a way of survival. Companies not operating in a war zone could learn from the successful businesses. One of the reasons investors tend to buy these types of stocks is few people do not believe that in an economic downturn, the companies have the ability to have many contingencies to get through the downturn with the ability to make profits. No matter what the economic cycle is, can the company make money?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If you go into a supermarket, one of the items that is hard to miss is avocado. They are generally on sale because lots of people like them and supermarkets want to increase sales. If you go back less than 100 years ago, avocados were luxury items that luxury hotel chefs and their patrons enjoyed. How did avocados go to main stream? The book titled Green Gold written by Sarah Allaback and Monique F Parsons published by Counterpoint, LA and San Franciso, 2025 outlines the story.

Avocadoes are generally a good tasting food and millions of people enjoy them around the world. The avocado origins in Mexico and is and was a regional staple in Latin America.

People have been going to Latin America for centuries and it is not surprising, when people go to over countries they try the food of the country and some of the times they love it. There generally is a logistic problem that the food grows in a particular climate and much of the US has a frost line. If you have a garden, you know frost kills plants. If you a grower, you worry about frost, because that is your investment. The plant has to be adapted to grow in commercial quantities.

On New Year’s one of the traditions on TV is watching the Rose Bowl Parade. The Rose Bowl Parade has been going on since 1890 and comes from Pasadena, California. For generations, Pasadena has been a recognized center of gardening. Every story needs a wealthy benefactor, and avocados had one, railroad tycoon Henry Huntington, office building had a restaurant one floor below Mr. Huntington’s office where he ate avocados every day. Mr. Huntington was inspired enough to add an avocado orchard to his lavish estate gardens where William Hertrich was the nursery man.

When water was brought to LA (LA is essentially a desert like condition) through the 230 mile aqueduct, people starting grow a variety of tropical plants.

The first avocados planted in the continental US came to Florida. In 1833, Henry Perrine, the American consul in Campeche, Mexico was responding to a request from President John Quincy Adams for government officials to assist in identifying and shipping seeds of useful tropical plants to America.

The Lincoln administration formalized the federal government’s role in American agriculture in 1862 with the establishment of the Department of Agriculture and passed the Morrill Land-Grant College Act, allowing states to establish colleges in largely rural areas. This led to the founding of the University of California Citrus Experimental Station which usher in a new era in scientific fruit analysis, which continues to this day. How to find the best fruit for both consumer and producer which is disease resistant and travels well to markets around the world?

The Boston Cooking School Magazine published recipes to encourage people to try different foods. One banana recipe book was done for United Fruit. The published enjoyed tropical fruits and they also were good for you such as avocado salad.

Back in California, people such as Fred Popenoe planted a couple of avocado trees on his property and soon expanded his nursery. Avocados have a long history in Mexico and eventually people in California were looking for the fruit which could be picked and did not ripen too fast so it could be sold at premium prices. The search was all over Latin America, but the standard bearer was a tree from Atlixco, Mexico. The avocado had thin skin and a nutty flavor. Its seeds were planted in California and grew well so it became the standard bearer and is known as Fuertes.

Rudolph Hass decided to grow avocados and planted 300 sprouted avocado seeds of Guatemalan stock. Once the seeds became seedlings, he was trying to graft the Fuertes to the trees. One baby tree refused to accept the graft, even after multiple attempts. Mr. Hass decided to leave it alone. When that tree grew to have fruit, his children loved it and so did everyone who tried it. Mr. Hass copyrighted it and today you will likely see a Hass on the supermarket shelf.

Once the orchards were established, the California Avocados Association had to start drumming up sales otherwise the fruit would not last. What we consider normal – taste testing, recipes, advertising or marketing to people to try and then buy the fruit on a regular basis was done. The Super Bowl is the most watched TV show of the year, and the industry has branded guacamole as a staple. More avocados are sold at that time than any other time of the year. We all like them.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, every product we buy has a history and logistics on how the product gets to a mass market. In the food industry, taste and quality matter, after that it takes a lot of marketing, technology and work to get people to try and buy the product on a regular basis, otherwise the product is “toast”. But once that happens as long as the margins are good, profitability happens and dividends can be paid. Just remember, in the supermarket and other markets, many products are not there in 3 months, many are never to be seen again, but some stay a long time, why?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In the developed world, if you look closely at the people there are many people who are above the government recommended weight for their body type. The fashion industry likes smaller bodies, the government likes moderate bodies but the reality is most people are overweight. The good news is the weight loss industry will never lose clients and for weight loss using drugs from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, the demand is only getting larger, particularly with the generic version coming soon. Losing weight using drugs has side affects – people eat less snacks, which means the package food snack companies have to adjust.

In an article by Richa Naidu of Reuters, Nestle SA is seeking to turn the rise of weight loss drugs (GLP-1) from a threat into an opportunity using artificial intelligence (AI) and nutritional science to develop products.

Chief technology officer Stefan Palzer said Nestle was using AI and other technology to analyze clinical research, identify nutrient combinations and develop products tailored to GLP-1 users.

One of the side effects associated with taking GLP-1 and having rapid weight loss, including muscle loss and facial fat often referred to Ozempic face.

About 16 million Americans are taking GLP-1, according to Boston Consulting Group and that number is rising as insurance providers pay for it. The insurance companies benefit from healthier patients or patients that pay premiums and do not use the services as much or tend to use low-cost services.

According to the results of weight loss, many people lose muscle mass. Nestle has found a combination of 2 micronutrients that stimulate the growth of muscle tissue. The product is marketed under the Vital Products brand.

Nestle US business created Boost Advanced Nutrition Shake, marketed as containing 35 grams of protein to support muscle health during weight loss. In Asia and Australia, there is a higher protein version of its Milo shake called Milo PRO High Protein.

Nestle has developed internal systems to analyze scientific literature, stimulate consumer behavior, identify emerging trends, and help product developers navigate a database of roughly 120,000 recipes. The company is also using AI to monitor social media and identify consumer trends.

If you have a body weight that is consider moderate, forget the products and continue eating fresh food that contains the same proteins and nutrients, said Amanda Avery, associated professor in nutrition and dietetics and the University of Nottingham in central England.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, one of the reasons you buy these companies is their ability to adapt to changing trends and continue to earn high margins which translates into profits. Dividend paying companies often have the resources to use the best technology i.e. AI to find solutions. There will be an adjustment, but companies can adjust and regain higher margin products to continue being profitable.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In the news, you will have read or heard the AI revolution is jumping starting the economy with the building of data centers and more important the chips that are in it. The building means taxes for the town or region and the state that it is in. Data centers are huge, multiple footballs in size and look like huge distribution centers except after the building is built, few people actually work in the building. For states they could be cash cows, so new laws have to be passed.

In an article by Tony Romm of the New York Times News Service, in the state of Virgina which is south of Washington, DC there is area near Stone Ridge, there are hundreds of warehouses that the area is known as Data Center Alley. For states like Virgina, they are expecting $600 million in addition revenues.

At the heart of the AI policy debate are two possibilities.

The first is that AI will create an unfathomable economic boom, perhaps adding $15 trillion to the world’s economic output by 2030. That forecast alone has supercharged the valuations of major tech companies.

The second possibility is a doomsday brought about by the same pursuit of growth. If AI falters, it could cause a catastrophe for markets, while if AI succeeds, it could leave millions of Americans unemployed. And it could concentrate more wealth into the hands of the few.

At the heart of the policy response is a fundamental shift in the relationship between local government and the powerful interests of Silicon Valley.

Once, communities nationwide eagerly courted companies such as Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft lavishing them with tax incentives and other perks. Chasing an economic boom, local officials were willing to make short-term fiscal sacrifices in exchange for covered jobs and potential tax revenue.

But the industry’s demands – and profits – grew exponentially. Sometimes, their promises did not pan out. And the new data centers that they erected to serve AI are different than earlier facilities. The new warehouses are larger, employ fewer worker and can consume far more water and electricity, stroking local fears about their economic and environmental impact.

The tech industry’s lobby group is called the Data Center Coalition.

Over the past 2 years, roughly 30 states have considered legislation related to data center energy use, including special tariffs on the largest electricity users, according to the University of Virgina tracker.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, if you have an index portfolio there will be tech stocks in them, the larger companies also pay some dividends and you can own them directly. If you own the companies, you are expecting the possibility that tech companies continue to dominate the economy, and the second possibility of what happens to people will be left to governments. Governments are the same as John Dillinger, who once said I rob the banks because that is where the money is. Governments will increasingly look to tech companies and their owners, because that is where the money is. In the meantime, enjoy the ride but increasingly the relationship will change a bit.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In North America, we are car orientated and many expect to own a vehicle (or at least have payments) and driving is considered as a rite of passage. In the rest of the world, cars are important, but the bulk of people think about motorcycles as a transportation source. There is a change going on in that market.

In an article of Chico Harlan and Zia Ur-Rehman of the New York Times News Service, 3 years ago, there was hardly any electric motorcycles in Pakistan, today there are some 84 companies making electric motorcycles.

Sales rose 173% during the first half of the year, according to MotorCycles Data, a market-intelligence firm. Hamza Asad, director of sales for Evee, the country’s largest sell, said that 90,000 electric 2-wheelers were sold between April and June, compared with 112,000 for the whole year in 2025.

About 1.9 million motorbikes, gasoline and electric are purchased in Pakistan in a typical year. In Pakistan, it is cheaper to charge a battery than fill up a fuel tank.

Muhammad Salman, managing director of Yadea Pakistan said Trump is the biggest salesman, Salesman of the Year.

The companies in Pakistan are a mixing of shoestring operations, venture-capital backed startups and pre-existing companies that see the potential and are jumping in, for example tractor maker of Massey Ferguson plans to launch an electric motorcycle line.

A handful of Pakistani companies use chassis and tires manufactured domestically while relying on batteries and motors from China. But other companies depend on China almost entirely. They import bikes in ready to assemble packages.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, at some point there will be a market leader and a need to consolidate the industry, and to brand one or more companies so people will do similar to Honda motorcycles, know which brand to buy. For now, it is interesting to watch and see which companies will lead the pack to brand awareness.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If you drive through Maine, you will see many trees because the state of Maine is about 90% forest. This leads to a forestry industry worth about $8.3 billion. The value-added product was to make paper and there were many mills in Maine. If you remember newspapers and inserts, you would have thought the mills would last a lifetime.

In an article by Stacey Freed of the New York Times News Service, one of those mills in Maine was owned by Madison Paper Industries owned by UPM-Kymmene and Northern SC Paper, a subsidiary of New York Times. Not surprisingly, the Madison mill produced glossy paper used by the Times for inserts. Most people do not read the newspaper in print anyone, which means inserts demand went down and the mill closed.

Prior to closing, Madison Paper Industries was the biggest taxpayer in Madison or 46% of the budget for the town.

The good news was the 600,000 sq ft mill was in good shape and a company called TimberHP acquired it to make wood fiber insulation panels from wood chips and other wood waste. It was a win for the town and a win for the timber industry, and the owners had high hopes wood fiber insulation which was made in Europe would now be made in the USA.

7 years later, keeping the doors open at TimberHP has not been easy. The pandemic snarled supply chains delaying deliveries on things the needed to refurbish the mill. A few years later, soaring inflation and construction delays meant only 2 lines were running rather than 3.

The company has money problems despite receiving a $3 million grant from the state government and raising $122 million in investor rounds. Venture capital funding is not interested because of the need for quick returns.

In 2025, the company paid about $200,000 in municipal taxes, a far cry from the $3.7 million from Madison Paper.

The investors believe in the product of the company, and the company is out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the company is having some success. It has 40 employees, down from the hoped 80 but it continues.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, sometimes you buy a stock and it is in the correct industry and has a leadership in that industry. The industry changes, the company keeps trying and because you own it, you want to see hope for the future. The reality is it will tend 5 to 10 before the company if it can change will be fixed or have hope for the future. As the investments you made, the industries change selling or finding alternatives is a good idea.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If you think about how economies grow and become more mature, then China is a wonderful example. For the past 4 decades, Chinese needed western European and American companies and technology, 40 years ago it made cheap goods that would not be considered keepsakes by anyone. Then as time has gone, companies became better, education became better and now China can compete based on goods made in the China.

In an article by Rene Wagner of Reuters, Germany’s trade deficit with China widened in the first half of 2026, even as China remained its top trade partner according to data from Germany Trade & Invest (GT&I).

German exports fell 12% to $42.44 billion between January and June as Chinese firms cut reliance on European imports, making China only the 9th biggest market for German goods. As recently as 2021, China was the 2nd largest market.

China is selling more and more to Germany.

The reason for declining exports to China are the weak domestic economy and increasing (Chinese) focus on domestic value chains said GT&I expert Corinne Abele.

German firms are now producing more inside China itself. (Germany was one of many companies who saw a tremendous market in China and brought their best technology to China).

Far smaller economies like Austria and Switzerland have bought more German goods in 2026 than China has bought.

The US is Germany’s biggest market, with France and Netherlands next on the list.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, many dividend paying stocks are mature companies, they will go up in value, but you are generally not buying them to gain growth. Growth is wonderful and for utilities they are growing because of the need for electricity by AI. Mature companies see the world differently than growth companies, because they can have 10-year plans or 50-year plans, growth companies have much shorter plans. As countries mature, other things happen, just like when companies mature, expectations change.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

We all hear the economy is being helped along with the building of data centers, which is a good thing for the overall economy. Most of us in the urban areas, will not see the data centers because they are typically built in rural areas. The land is less expensive, the taxes are less and electrical plants are located in the area. This is good for the company, but what about the consequences?

In an article by Hiroko Tabuchi of the New York Times News Service, Amazon is building a data center in Pecos County, Texas which is located on the western side of the state northwest of San Antonio. In addition to building a data center, Amazon is investing in a large-scale natural-gas power plant. Although there are many pollution reductions on power plants, if built this plant would be the large single source of climate pollution in the US.

Artificial Intelligence data centers require immense amounts of energy to run the trillions of calculations needed to create AI systems and services. And the scale and urgency of their energy demands is fast exhausting the electricity-generating capacity of the nation’s power grid.

The best solution for the AI companies is to build a power generating plant nearby as a dedicated, on-site power plant.

President Trump promotes the use of oil and gas and coal to power the power plants, and the President made it to build and operate data centers. Federal agencies have fast tracked their construction.

Amazon’s plant would use 35 natural-gas turbines to generate up to 7.65 gigawatts of power to feed the data center. The plant is in remote part of West Texas and is reasonably close to natural gas fields.

If you have seen pictures of West Texas or been there, the construction jobs would be very welcomed. Different concerns about after having the data center constructed the number of jobs falls drastically and although the tax revenues would make a difference, the data center would need infrastructure improvements to be built. In addition, how the data center is cooled remains a concern in a part of the state with limited rainfall.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, there is always a tradeoff between the greater good and the best solution. The greater good says to compete in the future, data centers are needed and building them is a very good thing. The best solution says there will be some consequences, some are readily seen, some are unforeseen, but we need the data centers.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.