In the investment world, there is are always different types of investments for different types of investors. Some people are day traders, the most important aspect is volatile prices or some sort of pop. As long as the stock is moving either upwards or downwards, it is possible to profit from it. There are other companies where the main action is the quarterly report where it says it met expectations. These companies tend to be less newsworthy carrying about their business and overtime as long as expectations are met, will increase in value. Another case is special situations which are affected by the news cycle of the day, week or month.

In an article by Purvi Agarwal, Rashika Singh, and Johann M Cherian of Reuters, when President Trump decided to start the war in Iran, that lead to increase volatility which the day traders liked. It created special circumstances because for every action, not all companies benefit.

In a war, people generally look at defense stocks because many of the products are very useful in a war and depending on how long it lasts, new orders for more product should be forthcoming.

A lot of conflict premium was in the defense stocks valuations, said David Bianco, an Americas chief investment officer at German asset manager DWS. We saw gold and oil and defense rally, part of the reason was messages from the Trump administration. When Trump sent the armada to the Middle East, nobody knew anything, but they saw chances of conflict reasonably high.

Reuters reported in the weeks leading up to the war that the US was building up forces and preparing for a weeks-long operation if diplomacy failed.

In addition, President Trump asked for more money up to $1.5 trillion for the 2027 defense budget, up from $1 trillion in 2025.

The defense index has surged more than 150% between 2020 and 2025, leaving the sector at historically elevated valuations. The S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense sub-index trades at about 32 times 12-month forward earnings, well above the broader S&P 500’s multiple of 20 times, according to LSEG data.

Sameer Samana, head of global equities at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said the conflict would need to last longer, or expand materially for estimates to move higher.

One of the good things for existing shareholders has been share buybacks, the Trump administration is pressuring the defense firms to prioritize production rather than share buybacks, raising questions about capital returns.

The sector’s medium-term outlook depends heavily on US budget decisions with key spending details expect by April 21, Bloomberg News reported.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, with every conflict there are some companies that benefit and others that do not, but the companies that benefited before the war started, not once the war started. Once the war started other companies that have operations in the Middle East have not benefited and likely lost money. If you invest on a news cycle, it is important to do your homework before the event happens, not while it is happening.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

A merger captures the public interest or at least in media and it seems to be the hot project. Eventually one company wins and the other has a larger bank account, but the executives have spent time and energy on the possibility of what happens if they won. For most companies there is a let down because the plans have gone astray. What happens next?

In an article by Dawn Chmielewski and Lisa Richwine of Reuters, the question was asked about Netflix which recently lost when Paramount SkyDance offered more money for Warner Bros Discovery. Netflix was willing to pay $72 billion to shore up its library and augment its intellectual property with Harry Potter and Game of Thrones because creating franchises has proven challenging.

Franchises can be valuable for entertainment companies because they are lower-risk investments that can bring in ancillary revenue through merchandise sales and in-person experiences.

Netflix purchased the rights to comic book publisher, Millarworld and one of the franchises that came from it is Stranger Things. Besides the series, a stage play and merchandise has been created.

However with every success, there are failures, a $700 deal to buy Roald Dahl’s catalogue which includes Charlie and the Chocolate Factory has yet to produce a major hit.

Producing consistent hits that spawn net series helps to attract and retain the subscribers and create engagement which grew by 2% in the second half of 2025, according to media consultant Owl & Co. Netflix’s top-line growth is expected to be in the range of 13%, compared to 16% in 2025.

On the TV side, according to Nielsen’s media distribution gauge, YouTube and Disney have consistently beaten Netflix in share of TV viewing since October 2024.

Netflix does have $2.8 billion from the failed merger as it had accumulated stock in Warner Bros and sold it off. In the movie industry there are always some projects that people are working on. Some will be good, some will not be.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, every successful company loves to have an extensive library to pull out of the vault and sell to a new audience. The trick is accumulating the library at relatively low cost and selling it and cross selling it in the future at higher prices. What assets does the company you invest in that was bought at low prices, can be held on for years in the future to sell at higher prices?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Every week most of us go to a grocery store to buy food. We buy whatever we need and ideally want and 90% of the time we are buying similar items that we bought before. What most of us do not do is look at the names of the items and say who owns the product? if I am buying it is a good investment? who has the biggest market share? is the company worth owning?

In an article by Julie Creswell of the New York Times News Service, one of the aisles in the grocery store says condiments and not far away is spices. On those aisles will be a new giant supplier.

McCormick and Unilver’s food business are merging together. Unilever will selling off the food division and concentrating on the health and beauty aspect of the company. Last year, the food business was 25% of the total revenues.

McCormick’s CEO Brendan Foley, said we believe we created a focused, global flavor powerhouse, scaled, resilient and uniquely concentrated on flavor.

McCormick owns spices on the spice aisle, and brands such as French’s mustard and Stubbs BBQ sauce. Unilever owns Hellmann’s mayonnaise and Knorr soups and bullion cubes. Together the companies will do about $20 billion in annual revenues.

McCormick has reported a 17% increase in sales, but nearly all the growth came from its acquisition of McCormick de Mexico. Without that acquisition sales increased 1% driven by a nearly 2% increase in pricing.

After the deal closes Unilever and its shareholders will own about 2/3’s of the company, McCormick’s shareholders owning the rest.

Last year, Unilever spun off its holdings in Ben and Jerry, Magnum, Breyers and other brands into a separately traded company called the Magnum Ice Cream company.

Unilever started as a margarine company, merged with Lever Brothers a soap company. In the 1940’s bought Birds Eye frozen foods, Breyers Ice Cream in 1993, Ben and Jerry’s Ice cream in 2000 As well as buying Bestfoods which owned Knorr and Hellmann’s.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, sometimes your homework can be what do regular people do and buy, many go to supermarkets. All those brands are owned by somebody, if you are buying maybe it is a good investment? You will need to do your homework, but often times steady reliable earnings are found in the supermarket.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

President Trump came into the second term and one of his slogans was Drill Baby Drill. It was designed to appeal to those in the oil industry and to signal that federal lands will be used for oil and gas drilling. Thanks to fracking and the Permian Basin, the amount of oil drilled inside the borders of the US had made the US self-dependent in oil and gas. The President also decided that renewables or generating oil and gas from solar and wind will be downplayed as much as possible. Time will tell if that is a good decision, because the output of the Permian is expected to decrease in the coming years.

In an article from Reuters, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) released data showing that globally, renewable power made up almost 50% of the world’s electricity capacity last year. Renewables held a 49.3% market share versus last year of 46.3%. In terms of capacity, it was 5.149 gigawatts up 692 GW from 2024. The growth was led by a leap in solar capacity, which grew by 511 GW in 2025 to 2,392 GW.

For electrical generating companies, the price is the key element. When coal was expensive, the companies switched to natural gas. When natural gas gets expensive the companies add renewables or make small scale renewables such as putting solar on your home easier.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, if you own dividend paying stocks invariably you will look at private owned electrical utilities because they have a near monopoly and can raise prices every year which allows them to pay dividends. The companies will use whatever is reliable and cost effective, no matter what the policies in Washington are.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Once a company is in operation and is successful it faces two choices – grow or try to stay successful without growing too much. If it decides to grow, it will tend to do it vertically first to try to be control of the input to its operations. If it continues to grow, then to diversify itself it will move horizontally or ideally some sort of outside company that has relatively easy synergies to itself. And the process continues.

In an article by Neil J Kanatt and Abigail Summerville of Reuters, Sysco is buying catering supplier Jetro Restaurant Depot for about $29 billion. The deal will be financed with $21 billion in new and hybrid debt and $1 billion in cash and equity. Jetro shareholders will own 91.5 million Sysco shares or 16% of the company.

Sysco is the US largest food distributor, and if you look around you will often see their trucks bringing food to convenience stores, restaurants, hotels and hospitals cafeterias around the country. According to Brad Haller, a senior partner in West Munroe Partners’ merger and acquisition practice, the deal reflects Sysco recognizing its traditional distribution model is under real structural pressure and choosing to act before that pressure becomes existential.

Jetro Restaurant Depot operates a wholesale cash-and-carry model where consumers pay upfront for food, beverages, and takeout containers. The margins are higher than what Sysco operates at which would appeal to Sysco. Jetro has 166 warehouses across 35 states.

Sysco CEO Kevin Hourican, noted cash-and-carry business is an extremely recession resilient business. Every time there is a recession, cash-and-carry including Jetro picks up market share.

Large deals need to go before regulators such as the Federal Trade Commission, but Mr. Hourican notes operate in distinct channels of food with limited customer overlap.

Jetro is selling because the founder Nathan Kirsh is in his 90’s and his children are not interested in running the business,

Sysco expects the acquisition to boost earnings per share by mid-to-high single digit percentage in the first year after closing, which it expects by the 3rd quarter of 2027.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, successful companies are always doing some mergers and acquisitions and ideally the M&A lead to higher earnings and continuing stable profits. For shareholders, what is ideal at the time of purchase, needs to be executed and how well it is makes investing depended on quarterly results. How are they doing? is the plan working? the deal was done for a reason, what was the reason?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In Washington you will often hear about the size of the US deficit, and it grows every year. What you rarely hear about is why the US dollar remains strong even with deficits not on a decreasing rate of any kind.

In an article by Mile Dolan of Reuters, the real reason why the US dollar is strong is a deal between the US government and Gulf states. US protection in exchange for access to Gulf energy, oil priced in dollars and recycling of billions of dollars in US arms sales, technology and American stocks and bonds.

The arrangement since the 1970’s underpins the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency and has been central to the US-Saudi relations ever since.

The Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain all peg their currencies to the dollar, and which require them to have reserves estimated to about $800 billion.

In addition, the sovereign wealth funds are estimated to have invested over $6 trillion in the US stocks, bonds, private equity and other US heavy investments.

The US Treasury lists Saudi Arabia and the UAE funds among the top 20 national holders of Treasury securities with almost $250 billion between them.

The petrodollar system rests on 3 pillars: America’s need for oil, the pricing of oil in dollars and the Gulf’s region security relationship with Washington.

Does the war shift those pillars or how strong are those pillars after the war is over?

Linking to dividend paying stocks, the US economy is the world’s biggest and can stand some shocks to it, but if the petrodollar system ever changed, the deficit would mean the same thing to the way you apply the deficit to every other country in the world. Invariably interest rates would go up and deficit spending would actually have to be done. None of that will change in the next year or two, but it is always worth understanding.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Every once in a while, some investments will get hot and the price the will soar. The problem of course is at some point the prices will fall and then to get to even will take a long time or you have to wait till the asset class becomes hot again. While something is hot, Wall Street is extremely creative and innovative in how you can invest in that asset class.

In an article by Echo Wang and David Jeans of Reuters, one of the expected hot IPOs or Initial Public Offering is SpaceX. The company is owned by Elon Musk and many people and institutions have made money with Mr. Musk so they are eager to invest in SpaceX.

The potential payoff from owning SpaceX before it goes public is big enough that any are willing to pay a premium for access and live with the uncertainty. It is likely to be a high IPO.

There is an opaque market for private company shares. These deals often rely on special-purpose vehicles or SPVs which do not own shares in the company. They pool investor money to buy the rights to purchase the shares at a later time.

Mitchell Littman, a New York-based lawyer who advises SPV managers and secondary market investors, said you are relying on the counterparties in these transactions and their reputations. Every type there is hype around these type of things, invariably the fraudsters come out of the woodwork because they smell an opportunity. There is intense demand of Space X.

The IPO has changed the landscape, because companies are staying private longer to build brand recognition and creating demand from investors. The change has pushed investors eager not to miss out into secondary markets, but in the secondary market can pass through as many as 5 intermediaries, each with its own layer of fees, obscuring who ultimately owns what.

Increased layering adds costs, which effectively compresses the potential profit margins and upside for investors in the IPO.

(in the calmer world of ETFs, the lower the fee, the more you keep).

Linking to dividend paying stocks, once you have assets, and as long as most of your assets in rather boring areas which continually make profits and pay dividends. You will be expose to hot areas in the market, making money quickly and trying to be richer overnight. Some of them will be fraud, some you will regret because they become long term investments hoping they get hot again. Protect yourself from the downside or your assets will quickly go down in value.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Every industry goes through mergers and acquisitions, one side will say it is good, the other side will say no it is not good. If you want to understand an industry then it is helpful to review the comments industry groups send to the industry review board. In the case of railways, the industry is regulated by the Surface Transportation Board.

In an article by Christopher Reynolds of the Canadian Press, the proposed merger between 2 railways will either hurt competition and drive up costs across the continent or do the opposite.

Union Pacific, the 2nd largest railroad operator wants to buy Norfolk Southern Corp, the 3rd largest railway for $85 billion. The deal would create the first transcontinental railway and could trigger a wave merger of other railways as they try to stay competitive.

If Union Pacific and Norfolk joined forces, they would control 40% of American freight traffic. One of the more vocal critics is a competitor CPKC CEO Keith Creel who says the acquisition would damage competition, cost customers money, place unprecedented market power in the hands of a single railway.

The 6 largest Class One Railways are: BNSF Railway, Union Pacific, CN Railway, CSX Transportation, CPKC and Norfolk Southern Railway. The last merger was CP and KC to create CPKC,

The planned merger would marry Union Pacific’s vast rail network in the Western US and Norfolk’s rails in the country’s eastern half. The combined railroad would be 50,000 miles of track in 43 states with connections to major ports on both coasts.

The goal is efficiency. Among the big 4 railways, the Mississippi River acts as rough dividing line separating Union Pacific and BNSF in the west and Norfolk Southern and CSX in the east. Rather than have thousands of containers transferred from one railway to another within the same riverside city – St. Louis, Memphis and New Orleans, the merger would allow for more fluid traffic flow and end to end operational control. It would be possible to shave off 24 and 48 hours of transit time. This could mean less trucks on the road and slashing costs.

Opponents believe a merger of BNSF and CSX would happen.

Major trade bodies representing energy, chemicals, agriculture and construction including Chevron, ExxonMobil, DuPont, Dow and Nutrient oppose the merger.

On January 16, the US rail regulator rejected the UP-NS merger application as incomplete and asked the parties to flesh it out. Union Pacific will submit its plans on April 30 with a final decision by the Surface Transportation Board by next year.

7 Republican state attorney generals have asked to the anti-trust division of the US Department of Justice to review the deal, arguing it would hurt competition and the economy.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, the great thing about owning a railway company is there will be no new competitors because it is expensive to build track. If the railway is run well, you can expect the company to pay dividends and make a profit. Since 2011, all railways had a shakeup in management, and all are running better. If the merger goes ahead, one or more may merge which gives you capital gains, in the meantime you can collect dividends and learn about the process and the competition in the railway industry.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

After you think about all the nice things spring brings – more flowers, warmer weather, spring training in baseball and the list goes on, it also means filing your income taxes. Ideally, you get a refund, but some will have to pay more

In an article by Christopher Rugaber of the Associated Press, according to President Trump, his big beautiful bill was going to giving millions larger tax refunds and the money was going to stimulate the economy. In December, President Trump was suggesting spring is projected to be the largest tax refund season of all time. (notice with President Trump every event is the biggest, the best of all time).

On February 28th, President Trump added a new wrinkle to everyone’s finances – higher gas prices. Even if the war is over in a short period of time, gas prices are likely to remain elevated for some time because logistics of shipping and production have been disrupted and will take time to recover. Economists are now expecting spring to have slower growth in the economy, higher growth in nature.

Lower and middle-income households are likely to be hit particularly hard because they receive lower refunds, while spending a greater proportion on their earnings on gas.

Sidenote: recently read a book called Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the America City by Matthew Desmond, 2016. The book focused on Milwaukee, Wisconsin, but could have been anywhere in the US. In Milwaukee and likely other cities, the local electricity provider is not allowed to disconnect the electricity during the winter months. The poor generally fall behind on bills in winter and depend on tax refunds to pay the electricity bill so by next winter their electricity is functioning.

Neale Mahoney, director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, calculates gas prices could peak in May at $4.36 a gallon, based on oil price forecasts by Goldman Sachs, followed by slow declines the rest of the year. The notion that gas prices decline much more slowly than they rise is so ingrained among economists that they refer it to as the rocket and feathers phenomenon.

The US Tax Foundation estimates the average refund per household will be $748. If gas stays high, the average family will pay $740 a year more in gasoline.

Economists at Oxford Economics, a consulting firm, estimates that if gas prices average $3.70 a gallon all year it will cost consumers about $70 billion. That is more than the expect $60 billion in increased tax refunds.

Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates the top 10% of households spend about 1.5% on gasoline, while the bottom 10% of earners spend 4% of their incomes on gasoline.

For now, American consumers and businesses have repeatedly shaken off the shocks to the economy and continued to spend, defying concerns the economy would tip into recession.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, the important aspect of investing is to pick the winners and losers and try to invest in the winners, although there is no perfect investment. If gas prices are going to remain high, that should do well for oil and gas producers and refiners. That does mean that people will generally go about their normal lives and not be a shut in, for during COVID people did not travel and gasoline usage fell, which sent oil companies share prices down.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.