If you think about what you ate today or the past week, did it include instant noodles, chapatis or slice bread? For many it did because the raw ingredient is wheat and it is at the heart of modern diets.

In an article by Somini Sengupta of New York Times News Service, the breadbaskets of the world are getting pummeled by drone strikes, devilish weather, nudging prices higher amid soaring food costs.

Heat and drought have diminished harvests in some the biggest wheat-producing countries including the US, which is expected to have its worst harvest in half century, or prices will rise.

The Black Sea, a crucial path for the global wheat trade is an active theater of the Russia-Ukraine war. Both countries have traditionally been the breadbasket for Europe and Africa.

Beyond that, water drought has brought transit routes in the Panama Canal, the Rhine and Danube Rivers to be the lowest in years.

Relatively few countries dominate the export of wheat – Russia, Canada, US, Ukraine and the European Union. The customers are mainly low-income countries that no longer can grow much of the food they eat.

Evan Fraser, a professor who studies the global food system at the University of Guelph said the system we have in place depends on 3 things: seamless trade, cheap energy and a stable climate. Today none of these assumptions are true.

The good news is last year there was a bumper crop so global wheat stocks remain strong; the bad news is the price of bread and wheat prices are at a 3 year high.

Russia and Ukraine account for 1/3 of the wheat the world buys, however grain shipments have nearly ground to a halt because each side is attacking grain export terminals.

Wild fires spared the wheat belt of France, the EU’s largest exporter but high temperatures did not. Drought and heat are expected to lower the grain yields from 310 million tons in 2025 to 286.6 million tons in 2026.

Australia planted fewer acres of wheat because of high fertilizer costs, stemming from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

The US is about to have its worst wheat harvest since 1970, because of drought. The US Department of Agriculture estimated fewer acres were planted and yields are down.

Egypt buys most of its wheat comes from Russia and Ukraine but has tried to encourage more production in Egypt, however there is not enough water to meet the country’s needs.

President Trump imposed tariffs. To avoid higher tariffs, some countries bought more wheat from the US. Unfortunately, it is at higher prices than what other countries are offering. Countries such as Bangladesh say it is unfair.

The biggest effects of food insecurity are expected to be in Central America and southern African countries.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, agriculture companies are keys to the economy and those of us who live in the city depend on those companies and the system that feeds people. We also depend on the government to keep the systems in place which allows us to benefit from the system. President Trump has decided that an isolated policy and tariffs are the way to go, but it seems the consequences will last for a number of years. The consequences will affect companies such as John Deere. Higher prices are good for companies, but politically they are not good for consumers, who will win out?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.