To judge optimism you are often asked is the glass half full or half empty, given the only time you have perfect information is looking backwards. The very good news is the degree of vaccinations is rising around the world which means more countries are allowing their citizens to gather. Whether the gathering is shopping, sporting or music events, or just being in close proximity to other people and not worrying about it. In the US over Memorial Day weekend, there was a tremendous urge to travel and eat at restaurants. That is a good thing.
All of us, look and particular numbers to gage whether the outcome of the event we are watching is a good thing or ask the question is the glass half empty or half full. Depending on your decision, it will lead to more decisions. In an article by Reuters, the writer examined a few issues in the world’s economy.
Payrolls and inflation – how fast is the US recovery? If the recovery is strong as hoped, economists were expecting 621,000 jobs in May, then the fed can ease off stimulus or bond buying. If not, then the fed has to continue what it is doing. Will inflation raise its head? we are seeing prices in retail stores increasing but there were offsets as people were not driving as much. Now that driving and traffic congestion is becoming a thing again, what is the offset?
Europe for the most part shut down and the European Central Bank or ECB had to help everyone out. Is inflation in Europe rising faster than expected? The ECB meets in June and will make a decision.
The price of oil has rebounded from its low when very low demands can about from the pandemic, the price of oil has increased. Commodity increases tend to mean more output, with OPEC open up supply?
The second biggest economy in the world is China and their monetary dollar is called the yuan. The price of the yuan has been increasing, is this forex market manipulation or will the increasing yuan mean higher prices of goods from China, adding to the world’s inflation?
Linking to dividend paying stocks, at any time in the month or year there are always many concerns which can mean the sky is falling. If you have limited or no leverage on your dividend paying stocks, then you will say stock prices will go up and down or fluctuate, but as long as the company is profitable and can pay dividends, I can sleep well at night. If you have a good sized portfolio that gives you steady income you can acknowledge there are many concerns, but there are many good reasons why the stock market is a good investment.
There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.