Nokia was the leader of the mobile phone market and then almost went bankrupt, while the reasons are numerous there are lessons to be learned. In the book Transforming Nokia by Risto Siilasmaa published by McGraw Hill, NY, 2019 the author offers some views. Mr. Siilasmaa was Board Chair for a number of years.
One of the challenges of the Board was what to do? Mr. Siilasmaa liked to map out different alternative scenarios.
Scenario mapping enables you to minimize the likelihood that you overlook something important and maximize the likelihood that you are prepared for whatever scenario eventually occurs.
The idea is picking 3 paths deciding whether they are positive or negative for the company, and defining specific actions that can taken right now and later to influence that future, you are more likely to be successful.
Scenario planning is a method of bringing discipline into thinking about the future and a tool for dividing big problems into manageable pieces, enabling you to deal with each piece separately. The strength of the exercise depends on the breadth and depth of your perspective: listing all the relevant alternatives and driving deeply into the key details of each possibility.
The scenario three is a living, growing organism. Each time you discuss your findings, you will find sub branches that need to be explored. New possibilities are revealed both positive and negative.
In the board setting, management does the homework.
The mapping of the scenarios is all