When you buy a dividend paying company, your outlook should be for the long term and that means through different economic cycles. Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates among many people have You Tube videos about economic cycles and the fact is they exist. The key to knowing about economic cycles is trying not to put all your money at the peak and when there is a downturn. The idea is when the economy is not so good, but there are signs it is improving and ride the wave. How to know when the cycle turns without looking backwards is the tough part. The point is profitable long term companies invest and should be investing for the long term.

In an article by Brooks Barnes of the New York Times, Walt Disney Co’s CE Bob Iger announced Disney will spend up to $60 billion on theme parks and expansion of the cruise ships.

Josh D’Amaro, chief of Disney Parks. Experiences and Products said Disney owns 1,000 acres to develop on across on its existing parks.

In 2022, theme parks generated $10 billion in profit up from $2.2 billion a decade ago.

The $60 billion is double what Disney spent on parks and cruises in the past decade.

Disney is expanding parks and cruises, however its other divisions are not doing as well as in the past, ESPN has less viewers because fewer people have cable TV, this has meant costs to cable companies have gone up, advertising down and the cost to the big sports has gone up ie NFL, MLB, etc. What is good for the sports team is not necessarily good for ESPN.

In the movie industry, the movies which were released were not giant blockbusters, although the movie library has many potential stories to tell.

Disney+ streaming service is losing money, but Disney is hopeful 2024 will be a profitable year.

The good news at the theme parks, once someone arrives, spending per guest has risen 42% since 2019 partly on higher ticket prices, food, merchandise and hotel rooms.

In the Disney Cruise Line part of the company, the company added a new port on a Bahamian Island, in addition to the one private island they own. The company will have 8 ships in their fleet. (having gone on a cruise, it is an enjoyable one).

Linking to dividend paying stocks, on one hand there will economic forecasters suggesting rough seas are ahead and to play it safe. On the other hand, profitable companies need to look at 10 years down the line to ensure they will capture the growth in the economic cycles. For the companies you own what plans do they have? how much do they typically implement?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In every country there are think tanks and conferences about what could happen if things progress the way they are. It is not necessary bad or good, just about possible options and politicians will need to make choices. Sometimes the choices are not going to earn votes at the moment, so it will not happen, but papers are written and acknowledged.

In an article by Belen Carreno of Reuters, in a paper prepared for the European Union meeting in October, the EU could be dependent on China similar to the way it was dependent on Russia.

In 2021, the year before Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia supplied 40% of its total gas consumption, 27% of oil imports and 46% of coal imports.

To stop and change the supply chain has taken billions of dollars, consumer inflation, higher interest rates, lower growth projections. With the voters accept the same in the future?

The EU paper is about the goals to be carbon neutral by 2050 and one of the methods will be to use more lithium-ion batteries, fuel cells, and electrolysers which are expected to multiply between 10-30 times in the coming years.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, these types of papers suggest or project possible government actions or regulations in the future. It could happen or something could change, what would happen if Russia withdrew from Ukraine? or a new technology becomes commercial? there are many options, one aspect as an investor you wish to examine is what companies would benefit from the changes. Most will not be changing overnight but it is possible to start a list of companies to watch overtime. When the companies are profitable, it would be time to buy and hold. The reports are part of your continuing homework to determine what options to do if the changes happen.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

All companies depend on some level of government regulations and for most investors they only see it when a government wishes to add more regulations. The governments have many reasons and sometimes it is political and sometimes it is to show who is boss and a host of other reasons. On the political side, China is not having the best relations with the US, so it wants the US to be better partners on the technology side. The government needed leverage and it choose Apple, not that Apple did anything wrong, because Apple has been in China for years and it is an important market for them.

In an article by Aitya Soni of Reuters, Beijing said it did not want its government employees not to use the iPhone. This was a few days before the launch of the iPhone 15 around the world. When a government imposes a regulation, analysts will dive into the financials of companies to see how they could or would be affected. Sometimes the regulation is good, sometimes not so good. In Apple’s case while the company enjoys very good relationships with China, the company is not immune to rising tensions between the 2 countries.

Apple gets nearly a 20% of its revenues from China. Similar to America, the iPhone has been the choice of people for the top of the line smartphones. Once a person owns an iPhone they are in the Apple system and Apple receives other revenue streams from them or service fees have increased in recent years to become a $10 billion business segment and growing.

It is possible, government regulations are designed to help the competitor Huawei which introduced the Mate 60 Pro smartphone which closes the big gap between it and the iPhone. the Mate 60 Pro runs on an advance chip made by SMIC and they hope to gain market share on the iPhone.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, often as investors we see the potential of the future for the company and we want to share in it. This is a great reason to consider to buy, the other side of the equation is to understand what happens if the government imposed regulations on the company. In this case of Apple you will understand 20% of the business is from China, it may fall to 17% but it is not going away. Understanding the possible negatives, will allow you to make better decisions and that is good investing.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If you go into a department store or pharmacy, one of the biggest departments for floor space will be the cosmetics department. There are an arrangement of colors and perfumes typically marketed towards women to make them more attractive. As a male, most of them help enhance, but sometimes less is more. However, if you read the financial reports from the companies, the beauty segment is often a safe, secure driver of revenues as well as having healthy margins.

In an article by Keith Bradsher and Elizabeth Paton of the New York Times, after 3 years of shutdowns due to COVID, Chinese consumers are splurging on lipstick, perfume, moisturizers and other personal care products.

China is the 2nd largest beauty market in the world behind the US. For French cosmetic companies, China represents about 1/3 of their total revenues.

The bad news is under the pandemic, China imposed regulations to slow down the imports of cosmetics. One of the rules is companies must divulge every ingredient in their product and precise quantities used. The information is loaded in a Chinese government database along with other information. The result is most manufacturers do not want to because they fear a low-cost Chinese manufacturer company coping their products.

The French companies through the trade associations ensured French President Macron raised the issue when he met with Chinese leaders.

In China, retail sales of cosmetics rose 8.7%, but overall imports fell 13.7%.

China’s customs data shows imports of cosmetics, toiletries and perfume from France to China were down 6.2% to $5.4 billion from a year earlier. Cosmetics from the US and South Korea were down 19.8% and 22% respectively.

According to data from Euromonitor International, Chinese beauty brands have grown in the last 3 years to take 27% of skincare and makeup retail sales among the top 10 brands.

The Chinese beauty market is expected to grow, McKinsey expects China will account for 1/6 of global beauty retail sales.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, companies are encouraged to diversify beyond their border, and many do because consumers want and need choice. Over time, the country where the companies have diversified begin to develop their own products and given the use of technology everywhere, the products will be better and be competitive with the imported ones. What does the foreign company do? lobby for an even playing field? change the name to reflect the company’s language? look for other markets? buy a piece of the domestic companies? there are many options because the company does not want to give up those revenues with high margins. From an investor point of view, you are concerned about the margins and the maintenance of them. If they go down, ask what is the best strategy and is the company doing it?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In mid September Apple launched the iPhone 15 and similar to all launches there were positive and negative aspects to the launch. In the past, when Apple launched an iPhone the stock bounced upwards because of expected sales and the company was seen as a growth company. Now the company is not seen as growing that much because people have iPhones. It was a good idea until researching the company and then you might have a different idea.

In an article by Tripp Mickle of the New York Times News Service, in the consumer electronics field there is a general rule: the older a device becomes, the more competitors come in and prices fall. Remarkably the iPhone is at least 15 years old, its share of smartphones has increased.

In the big 4 markets of China, Japan, Europe and India iPhone has increased market share and in the US market share has increased from 40% to 50% according to Counterpoint Research. In the rest of the world the market share has increased from 13% in 2019 to 20% at present.

Apple sales are similar to US auto sales, if you own a car and want to buy a new one, the dealer gives you trade in value for the old one. The telecom carriers which carry Apple do the same thing. If you have an older phone and want a new one, the carriers accept trade in value. The carriers offer discounts and monthly payment plans to make it seem more affordable to the customer. Similar to auto buyers, smartphone customers tend to be brand loyal rather than switching to other companies.

If you think about Apple’s 2 biggest competitors – Samsung and Huawei, both had major challenges that kept Apple people loyal. There was a problem with the battery at Samsung and the US government has imposed restrictions on Huawei and Chinese technology.

For teenagers, the smartphone of choice is the iPhone and according to Piper Sandler, an investment bank, the iPhone has 90% of the teenage market. One of the reasons is many teenagers’ text and Apple’s messaging service iMessage turns the text of non-Apple texts from blue to green if it is a non-Apple message. This blue to green item is a status item that few teenagers want.

Other reasons for the market penetration are the ease of Apple products to use such as AirPod and ease of use. Apple also a wide range of services such as music, videos which are easy to access. It would be a pain to change. As well as the camera works very well.

Consumer Intelligence Partners reports that 94% of iPhone customers are likely to buy another iPhone. For Android phones it is 91%.

According to Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, 60% of existing holders of iPhones are 6 years or older. At some point they will change to the latest model.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, all companies have products or services that generate the most cash for their companies and the issue is will it continue? after you do your research and you believe the answer is yes, you can continue to hold or follow the company until the next quarter or year when the issue comes back. In the case of Apple and the iPhone it will continue to sell very well. Listen to the news clips, but do your homework and then you can make good decisions.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions

In the US and other developed countries, the economy is tied to the mythical average consumer spending on a constant basis. 2/3s of the economy is based on consumer spending. Although on a personal level, keeping debt low and ensuring it is paid off is a very good thing to do and if you can you will easily build savings, the reality is over 40% plus of households live paycheck to paycheck. One of the many reasons could be trying to pay off debt. If they have no debt, savings are possible.

In an article by David Randall of Reuters, one of the indicators that fund managers used to examine the future of the economy is household debt and consumer stress. One method is to examine credit card delinquency rates and according to the Apollo Group, the rates among credit cards issued by smaller banks are the highest on record.

For the past couple of years, economists have talked about the savings that the general public was able to generate because of COVID payments, those savings are gone. The new reality is department stores such as Nordstrom said its credit card delinquencies is now higher than pre pandemic levels. Macy’s says its late payments to reduce credit card revenues by 41% from the previous quarter.

While credit cards payments go higher, it seems the consumer is still spending because consumer discretionary stocks are up 34% this year.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, there are always signs the worse is going to happen as well as the best is going to happen, it depends. On an individual level, credit card rates were never low when interest rates were near 0% and they are higher now that the Fed has raised interest rates. It is a great idea to have no debt on your credit card. From an investor point of view, it is better to own the big stocks of the big 3 credit card companies – VISA, Mastercard and American Express. They all have great margins, wonderful infrastructure that debit runs on and pay dividends. Warren Buffett told a high school audience one of his best financial advice is to stay out of debt, do not pay interest to credit card companies, but own their shares. While everyone listened, few did and credit card companies have a good future ahead.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

A number of years ago, Harvard University professor wrote and did You Tube videos about Disruption in the Steel Industry. The Professor’s name was Clayton Christensen and he talked about how in every market including the steel market some products have higher margins than others. If the competitors go after the lowest price portion of the market, often times the larger companies invariably decide not to compete on the lowest margins. That is good for the larger company, however in time and thanks to continuing changes in technology, the lowest cost manufacturer begins to compete in the higher margin products. In time the largest producers due to the established fixed costs, can no longer compete in the high margin items. The largest producers essentially have to do Chapter 11 bankruptcy, restructure their company and then they can compete. With this happen in the car industry?

In the automobile industry, there is a change from gasoline to electric vehicles. If you look to the future in 2050, more electric will be sold than gasoline. This is partly due to government regulations, partly due to the planet being warmer and partly due to consumers because it is expected the price to charge electric is less than buying gas. The change is not a flood because car makers do not have very inexpensive electric vehicles, at the moment the cost is on the high end.

In an article by Victoria Waldersee of Reuters, in Europe, as well as America, but more so in Europe, the carmakers have a fight on their hands to produce lower cost EVs and erase China’s lead in developing cheaper, more consumer-friendly models, executives at Munich’s IAA mobility show said.

Renault’s CEO Luca de Meo told reporters it has a new vehicle called R5 EV that will be 25-35% less expensive than the Scenic and Magne models.

Chinese EV makers, including BYD, Nio, and Xpeng are all targeting Europe’s EV market where thanks to government subsidies the sales of electric soared 55% to 840,000 units or 13% of the total market. (in China it is possible to buy a new EV for $5,000).

Some readers will remember or have read in the 1970’s, Japanese imports came into the US at the low end of the market, but they were reliable. Ford, GM and Chrysler all had smaller vehicles, but they were unsafe at any speed to quote Ralph Nader. Consumers moved with their feet to buy the Japanese models. Soon the Japanese models were on the roads and on the driveway of many family homes and they improved to the point where consumers believed Toyota was the most reliable smaller vehicle. Ford, GM and Chrysler thanked consumers that trucks and SUVs were considered made better and the margins are higher than their Japanese counterparts.

According to auto consultancy Inovev, 8% of new EVs sold in Europe were Chinese brands. This is up from 6% in 2022 and 4% in 2021. More EVs from China are coming to Europe. At the show, Chinese auto executives urged global co-operation in EV segment or they want access to markets.

VW CEO Oliver Blume told reporters through its partnerships in China, it expects to cut battery cell costs by 50%.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, as investors we like high margin profitable companies that can consistently pay dividends. However, the competition loves the prospect of receiving high margins which means every industry is always under threat of changing technology. How the companies in your investments deal with it is the secondary concern after it affirms it still maintains those high margins.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In the world most of us like people, sometimes we want to be around people, sometimes we are equally satisfied being around few people. The common thread is we are social, but which people do you want to be around? In North America we all live a somewhat gated community in the sense depending on your income, depends on a regular basis who the people are and just because some have higher incomes it does not mean they are better people. Sometimes the people who have less income are better people because they want less from us. How do you know?

One of ways is to learn and practice from people like Robin Dreeke who wrote the book Sizing People Up published by Portfolio Penguin, NY, 2020. Mr. Dreeke worked for the FBI and headed up the Counterintelligence Behavioral Analysis Program and he deals with people who have interests in changing the American system of democracy to something else.

Most of us do not have those high of stakes, we deal with our jobs and homes and families. But can you learn from Behavioral Analysis, the answer is YES. In a book about Steven Cohen and SAC Capital (now called Point 72) and he had or has former people from the department to teach his traders. They come into contact with a great deal of information, some of it you need to do something with, how do you know what is good or what is not so good? People are pitching ideas and asking for money, do they stretch the truth and what are signs they are not truthful as possible?

In Mr. Dreeke’s book one of many examples is after his FBI experience, he was invited to a security firm to give a talk and offer assistance. In the world of mergers and acquisitions, prior to the announcement, companies’ analysts examine the financial details, but they also call on security consultants to “look for the dirt underneath the fingernails”. What details did the analysts miss? what is hidden behind the numbers? who is not telling the truth? what are the true costs which a competitor would love to know? just because someone is prominent, sometimes they lie. Why would you trust them? Management wants to know did we miss anything that will result in write downs or losses? or will the stock price go up with the announcement and stay up?

The 6 signs for Behavior Prediction are:

1. Vesting – creating symbiotic linkage of mutual success
2. Longevity – believing your word is your bond
3. Reliability – demonstrating competence and diligence
4. Actions – displaying consistent patterns of positive behavior
5. Language – creating connections with masterful communications
6. Stability – transcending conflict with emotional accord

In the book there are multiple questions or check boxes that you need to do before you have a long term mutual association, but they happen and it makes life rewarding

Linking to dividend paying stocks, often times people gravitate towards this group of companies because they lost money in the lower stock price of get rich quick. Once in a while it happens, more often people lose money. Hopefully you learn or have learnt when it happened to you. Sometimes the best method to get involved is lose money, then you are ready for education, learning about value and dividends. Whatever your approach is you will need to deal with people – those running the companies, those in your social network and professional network hopefully your relations are long lasting and rewarding.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If you invest in big pharma or the large pharmaceutical companies, invariably you will want to see which drugs are billion dollar drugs, that are reasonably good for patients, and what the companies in the pipeline. If you ever watched a western movie, you might remember the sight of a travelling wagon where the owner/driver rolls into a town and sets up on main street to suggest to all that the drugs he is carrying will cure all your concerns. One of the biggest healthy concerns the developed countries have is weight loss. It seems it is ingrained in our normal conversation and there are multiple of ways to tackle the subject. The big promise from health care is to take a pill and you will lose some weight. This may be what more and more people will be doing besides eating reasonably healthy, doing exercise and getting enough sleep, but if you can take a pill, will you?

For anyone interested and it seems, the FDA is going to approve it and more importantly insurance companies will pay the bills, the most important player is a Danish firm called Novo Nordisk.

In an article by Eshe Nelson of the New York Times News Service, the company has suddenly grown so big it is reshaping the Danish economy. The magic pills are called Ozempic and Wegovy.

The price of the shares of the company has gone from $500 to over $1,300 and the overseas sales of the drugs has allowed the Danish Central Bank to keep interest rates low rather than raising them. The share price has made the company second to LVMH as the 2nd most valuable company in Europe.

If you know someone that has diabetes, you may have heard about the company. The US FDA approved Ozempic and Wegovy as diabetes medication, but they seem to have good news on the weight side of the business. The company’s profit has surged to over $7.7 billion in the first half of the year and this has created more revenues for the country’s tax revenues as Novo Nordisk is the number one contributor of corporate taxes to the Danish government.

According to the Centers for the Disease and Prevention Control over 100 million Americans adults are obese. This suggests there is room for Novo to grow as more doctors prescribe the pill. There is an old commercial of ordering a large pizza and a diet coke, now consumers will add the chips and a Novo pill.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, we saw in the Oxycontin drug that a pill that can help with pain had tremendous side affects. If the side affects of the Novo pills are very manageable then given the population who could be using the drugs, and the FDA approvals, then owning the company for a long term can be a very good investment for big pharma companies can be very profitable.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.