In every industry where profits are made there are fakes for the industry. We often think about fakes in the fashion industry, because most people have an idea of the brand but not specific details which makes the brand the brand worth paying for, this allows people who buy fakes to show them off as real. In the world of fakes, there are lawyers that are armed with copywrites and trademarks that spend time working with the police to try to shut down the manufacturers of the fake items. However fakes have a big advantage, the price is less, much less and the owner can believe or aspire to be the real thing which means fakes will continue.

One book which was written about the phony things is Genuine Fakes by Lydia Pyne pubished by Bloomsbury Sigma, London, UK, 2019. Ms. Pyne’s take on the world of fakes is to ask the question what happens when a fake becomes more famous than its orginal? If we really examine the world around us, genuine fakes are a lot closer to us than the art or fashion world.

Each of us tends to try to eat 3 meals a day or something similar. When we eating whatever food we enjoy the reality is a healthy portion of the enjoyment is how does it smell? If it smells good, then our taste buds help accent the food and we enjoy the food even more.

One food you may have eaten is bananas. Do you know the history? The banana was introduced during the Philadelphia Centennial in 1876 which attracted over 10 million visitors. After the event bananas became a staple in people’s diets and by 1929 bananas accounted for 50% of the exports from Central America. In helped that one company controlled the market and for years it was on the best dividend producing company lists – United Fruit. The story continues, in the 1860’s people were used to an artificial flavor of banana flavored foods. However in 1876, the banana tasted like a banana and not the artificial flavor one. Food scientists through the chemical companies began to market isoamyl acetate compound as banana flavor which meant when consumers ate bananas they tasted the isoamyl acetate and all was good. The yellow bananas of Gros Michels and Cavendishes which we eat reflect the taste of long ago.

There is a company called International Flavors & Fragrances Inc which supplies the food industry to whatever flavor and smell consumers desire which will help them buy the products. If you wish to go to local store and see what flavors of Jelly Beans come in and you will know about the trends in the industry.

Collectors will pay for rare books and some of them are in museums. A rare book is the Grolier Codex which is a book that allows people to read and understand Maya civilization. There were 3 books in existence till a 4th was discovered. Was it real or fake? When the Spanish took control of the Mexico and countries in South America, they were looking for gold and silver, but the other aspect was to convert people to Christianity. For the Spanish bishops, it meant ensuring that the world was seen from an European standpoint and not from the hundreds of years the Mayan’s ruled the area. To understand the thinking, the Catholic bishops believed that God could only be reached through the Catholic Church and they had to bring the heathens to the correct message. The Bishops used the Spanish army to destroy the writings of the Mayan because it conflicted with their message. Maybe the heathen were not really heathen, maybe they knew just as much or more than the Bishops? The Spanish Bishops won the power struggle and Codexes were destroyed. A Mayan codex was found, was it good or fake? When the Spanish were sending items including gold and silver to Spain they were also sending back fakes because the artisans started making fakes for the Spanish who were unsophisticated buyers. (If you are interested in collecting books, the Grolier Club is the private society of bibliophiles with dedicated interests in the history of bookbinding, book printing, and books in general.) After 40 years of testing and debating, the 4th Codex was determine not to be fake but real.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, one thing that is never fake is whether a company can pay a dividend or not, if they can and the dividend goes into your account, then it is a real as it gets. In investing there are many fakes or possible fakes and there is an entire group ready to take your money to pump and dump stocks. Whenever there is a hot market, there are companies pushing their possibilities, their maybes, but generally they will not amount to much. One of the most important rules on the stock market is try not to lose money, buying profitable companies that pay dividends helps you do this. You can admire the fakes at the museum, not in your house.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In every industry where profits are made there are fakes for the industry. We often think about fakes in the fashion industry, because most people have an idea of the brand but not specific details which makes the brand the brand worth paying for, this allows people who buy fakes to show them off as real. In the world of fakes, there are lawyers that are armed with copywrites and trademarks that spend time working with the police to try to shut down the manufacturers of the fake items. However fakes have a big advantage, the price is less, much less and the owner can believe or aspire to be the real thing which means fakes will continue.

One book which was written about the phony things is Genuine Fakes by Lydia Pyne pubished by Bloomsbury Sigma, London, UK, 2019. Ms. Pyne’s take on the world of fakes is to ask the question what happens when a fake becomes more famous than its orginal? If we really examine the world around us, genuine fakes are a lot closer to us than the art or fashion world.

When Rome ruled the Greek makers of pottery were the top of the line and those who were becoming wealthy knew that having the in pottery was important, fake art was sold. When Christianity was forming, some of the bones of the important figures were important for churches in Europe to possess, not all the bones were from the important figures. These examples show fakes have been in society for generations and will continue to be because the objects resonated with the audience and the audience wanted to believe.

One of the many things the wealthy do is buy art, if the artist is famous, over time the value will appreciate. If the artist is not famous, the buyer should like the art. Sometimes the artist which does the forging is very good and in the art world, the Spanish Forger’s work was some of the best. In many museums, the Spanish Forger’s work is to be found. The Spanish Forger work was in the 1500’s, but it took till 1970’s to build up the authenticity of the detail the Spanish Forger used which results in people collecting the Spanish Forger’s work and prices rising.

If you ever wandered through fields or streams as a young person, you likely picked up stones and skipped them. Depending on where you were walking, it was possible to see a picture on the stone of a fossil from millions of years ago. Likely most of the fossils were not collectibles but people for generations have looked for fossils to help explain how life can to being and what happened millions of years ago. Many large cities have Museums of Natural History and Universities have archaeology departments, think Indiana Jones movies. Sometimes the desire to believe you have found something that will change the course of thinking outweighs what you have found. In one case in Germany, 2 professors planted fake fossils for the another professor to find in the hopes of bringing down his ego. It backfired, the professor believed he had found something important and wrote a paper or book about the subject and had it published. Then he found it to be fake and had to spend considerable time buying the copies back. Next time, you are at the museum ask how the fossil finders determine it was true or how fakes were and are done.

Technology is a wonderful tool and it is used to create conditions that can occur in nature. One example is diamonds. Real diamonds are found in parts in India, Brazil, South Africa and Canada and since the late 1800’s, the control of diamonds has been through the De Beers which through various organizations sets prices and amounts of diamonds given to traders and retail stores. De Beers marketed a diamond as a diamond engagement ring which many couples bought and became standard. Many people have heard and believe a Diamond is Forever.

In 1970, GE was able to produce synthetic diamond or non-natural diamond because the process of understand what pressures the earth used to make diamonds was understood and could be and was replicated. This changed the market and De Beers monopoly changed although it still controls 35% of the diamond markets and synthetic diamonds are used in drilling for minerals in the earth’s crust.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, when something is popular and making money, various companies with like sounding names will emerge from the shadows hoping to lure investors’ money to their holdings. The overwhelming majority of the time the like sounding names will only have the hope not the reality of the company making profits. When it comes to buying be open to the like sounding names, but only buy the company which actually makes profits.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In the stock market, everyone knows prices go up and down and when they go up people get excited and when they go down, you might bargain shop. The bargaining shop is the toughest aspect because the stocks went down for a reason and you have to ask yourself has the reason changed and more importantly do people know about it that they want to get back in the stock. The homework you do to analyze the company allows you to determine what the reasons for decline are and if a turnaround is possible. The other part of do investors want to get back in the stock is much harder because the industry is not likely on the front page of either the news section or the business section.

In an article by Jeff Sommer of the New York Times News Service, he notes 3 of the big cruise companies – Carnival Corp, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd are among the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 this year.

Each of the cruise lines had astonishing gains for the first 6 months according to FactSet:

Carnival up 134% in the first 6 months, but down 63% since the start of 2020.

Royal Caribbean up 110% in the first 6 months, but down 22 since the start of 2020.

Norwegian Cruise Lines up 78% in the first 6 months, but down 63% since the start of 2020.

If you owned stock in the cruise lines in 2020 you lost money because of the pandemic – the ships were not sailing. The companies survived by taking on enormous debt loads and paying sky high junk bond yields. In 2022, the finances stabilized and this year the stock is up because the companies can pay down debt and return to steady money-making operations.

Carnival CEO Josh Weinstein said the company’s business levels are approaching 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic. Carnival expects to pay $8 billion in debt by 2026, down from a peak of $35 billion in 2023. If all goes well, the bonds will reach investment grade levels again.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, cruise lines show the classic signs of what happens when customers can not use the services, debt levels go up and when customers come back debt levels decrease. From a dividend paying investor it is too early to buy shares, but when debt levels become investment grade, there will be stability in the stock price or less risk.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

When ChatGPT was introduced to the general public, the public embraced the tools and it is the fastest growing consumer application ever and boasts over 1.5 billion monthly visits or is one of the to 20 websites in the world. The issue for the average investor was how was the company using AI to become better – productivity, analytics and better companies?

In an article by Yiwen Lu of the New York Times News Service, we are starting to see and understand how companies are using ChatGPT.

Mark Austin is the VP of data science at AT&T, the company noticed the developers were using ChatGPT, he switched to more secure version from Microsoft called Azure Open AI Services. This service allows businesses build their own artificial intelligence powered chatbots. AT&T started using it and their internal service is called Ask AT&T. Developers are using it as well as customer service representatives to summarize their calls. Productivity has increased by 20 to 50%.

Generative AI can produce its own text, photos, and video in response to prompts, capabilities that hep automate tasks such as taking minutes and cut down on paperwork.

Companies such as Amazon, Box, and Cisco have unveiled plans for generative AI powered products that produce code, analyze documents and summarize meetings. Salesforce, Slack and Oracle have announced new products.

Microsoft invested $13 billion in Open AI, the maker of ChatGPT. In January, the cloud based service of Microsoft Azure made the service available to customers who then access OpenAI to build their own version of ChatGPT. 4,500 customers are using the service.

The cost for the service charged by Salesforce is $360,000 annually with the cost rising depending on usage. Microsoft charges based on the version of OpenAI technology charges as well as usage fees.

Panasonic Connect, part of the Japanese electronics company Panasonic began using OpenAI to make its own chatbot and usage has grown to at 5,000 questions a day.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, the profitable companies have the ability to use the latest technology and they do. It is one of the many reasons, they tend to retain their leadership position and ability to generate profits. Last year at the AGMs people were asking how are you using AI, next year will what levels of productivity and profitability did the company make with the new tools? As an investor you expect the company to be current, but more than current ensuring it can and is profitable.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

For the past 30 years one of the relatively easiest jobs was the head of the Central Bank of China because there was only one concern – how to handle the growth in the economy. China emerged as the manufacturing hub of the world, the country invested billions in infrastructure and the economy was a seemingly dominate player in the global economy. Then the world begin to change, companies moved operations out of China to southeast Asia including Vietnam and India. The movement became a tidal wave during COVID and many do not expect the return of continuous growth in China. Years ago, manufacturing moved from the US to China and those states were stagnate for decades, will China do better?

In an article by Kevin Yao of Reuters, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) appointed Pan Gonsheng to the top political post at the central bank points to growing concerns in the country’s leadership over systemic risks in its sprawling financial sector.

Mr. Pan will be in a position to takeover the top spot with Governor Yi Gang steps down at the end of his term.

In the financial world, the challenge to financial stability is debt, local governments have about $9 trillion of local government debt backed by the property sector. The sector accounts for about 25% of economic activity.

Mr. Pan took on the role of China’s top foreign exchange regulator, managing the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves of $3.2 trillion. He is known for being tough on currency speculators and was involved with state banking reforms, tightening property market and fintech regulations and in banning cryptocurrencies.

Mr. Pan has been appointed as the central bank’s party secretary. Mr. Pan studied at Cambridge and Harvard Universities.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, for many years growth in the Chinese market was a given, but times change, world conditions change and something in China will need to change. Hopefully Mr. Pan can work well with President Xi Jinping who has surrounded himself with yes men, but that is a different story. There are always good people trying to do their best, and as investors you want to give them the latitude to help solve the problems but reality matters, debt matters. As an investor, you might look to other countries besides China for better opportunities.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If you were in the Board room of the oil giants you would know that exploration of oil is a long-term, high-risk business. Big ticket offshore projects typically take 5 years to develop from discovery and another 10 years to return the initial investment. However, as a source of profit, it can easily return 15-20%. If an oil and gas company invest in shale, the turnaround is less than a year. If an oil and gas company invest in renewables, the return is 8%, what should you do?

In an article by Ron Bousso and Nerijus Adomaitis of Reuters, according to data and industry executives, there is a return to developing offshore oil and gas projects.

When Russia invaded the Ukraine, because Russia is a large oil and gas provider, the European Community decided to embargo Russian oil and gas, the prices of oil and gas went up. Profits flowed to the companies and flushed with cash, the big oil and gas companies are drilling offshore.

Baker Hughes is a oil services firm and the number of rigs drilling is higher than prepandemic levels. Wood Mackenzie analysts project a continued increase in activity and forecasting drilling to grow 25% by 2025.

The International Energy Agency forecasts that global upstream oil and gas investments are set to increase by 11% to $528 billion in 2023.

The area that is seeing the biggest demand for offshore rigs is US Gulf of Mexico, South America and off the coast of West Africa including Namibia where Shell and TotalEnergies are drilling.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, while the world is changing, higher commodity prices drives investment levels in the mining world. With higher prices come higher rewards or higher profits and the ability to pay healthy dividends. If you invest in commodities, watch the price not the politics.

There are more questions than answers, till next time – to raising questions.

If you think about Henry Ford and the making of the Model T, a vehicle for everyone as long as you wanted the car in black. At the Ford Rouge Complex, the Ford Motor Company owned all parts of the production. The company had interests in the steel making, the parts, and was one of the largest employers in Detroit. At some point, carmakers including Ford decided it was better to the assembler of vehicles and not own all the products and parts or to contract it out. It seems we are moving back in time again for EVs.

In an article by Clifford Krauss and Jack Ewing of the New York Times News Service, without the product of lithium, carmakers will not be able to build batteries, no batteries no EVs. This has led to carmakers to mines in Chile. Argentina. Quebec and Nevada to lock up lithium for their battery factories in Michigan, Tennessee and Saxony, Germany.

Established mining companies do not have enough lithium to supply the industry as electric vehicles become more popular.

In the past, automakers let battery suppliers buy lithium and other raw materials on their own. But lithium shortages have forced carmakers to directly acquire the have it sent to their factories, some own by suppliers and others owned partly or fully by the automakers.

Sham Kunjor of GM, noted we quickly realized their was not an established value chain that would support our ambitions for the next 10 years. GM has signed deals with Livent, a lithium company in Philadelphia for material from a South American mine. Then GM invested $650 million with Lithium Americas to develop the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada.

Ford has made deals with SQM, a Chilean supplier, Albemarle based in Charlotte, North Carolina and Nemaska Lithium of Quebec.

There are many companies trying to mine lithium for the mineral is abundant but not always easy to extract. Countries such as Bolivia, Chile and Argentina have large reserves. The risk with any commodity is prices go up, supply increases and prices drop too less than profitable. At the moment, the big winners are the miners who signed long term contracts with the automakers.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, in every industry there are supply chains and they develop to ensure the highest productivity and lowest cost are built into the system. Examining the supply chain allows the investor to pick where the best margins are and tend to remain.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Hopefully as an investor, you have a chance to read books during the summer and some not related to your work. Once in a while it is good to read stories about injustice because you can relate the reasons to other evaluations you do. A good example is the book The Cadaver King and the Country Dentist by Radley Balko and Tucker Carrington, published by Public Affairs, NY, 2018. The book is written by 2 lawyers about wrongful convictions in the legal system, focusing on the coroner’s office in Mississippi. If you are similar to me, the only time you have paid attention to a coroner is through TV shows such as Quincy and CSI – Las Vegas which are and still are popular viewing.

Given that many of think about the coroners office as part science and part medicine or following the facts, the book paints a different story of what was normal. When something is part science and part medicine, many different theories and ideas come into the normal operating procedure and may help find the guilty party guilty. However, some of the procedures helped convict innocent people, because there was a need to find someone guilty and the evidence pointed to one person or another. What will seal the deal?

An issue in the courts, we as a society tend to give people who have expert evidence a higher standing, particularly if they have a degree. We tend to place having a degree as equal to the best degrees in study, but should they be? What about the quality of their work, if someone claims to have worked on thousands of cases, how much time did they put into each case? If they are the go to expert for authorities, when do they disagree? how often? what is the bias? Are there patterns that develop that need to be questioned?

In the book, the authors focus on the state of Mississippi, for many years anyone over 21 could be a coroner and were. People who could not read or write and signed the form with an X were coroners. It is not surprising outside of natural death, underdetermined reasons showed up on the death certificate. That is ok under normal circumstances, except what happens when insurance money is desired or criminal cases rest on the coroner’s report? In the official headings, you would find a state coroner listed in the directory, but digging deeper you would find a very underfunded department. You would also find the fees for being a coroner low which ensures most people with medical degrees stay away from being coroner. What you may expect is not necessarily what you receive in reality.

In the book, the coroner’s department in Mississippi has changed, it is now being funded properly and thankfully the use of DNA evidence helps ensure fewer innocent people are found guilty but the damage was done.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, as investors you have an opinion of a stock and put money into buying the stock. Invariably someone will have a different opinion, why do you hold it? In your research you find a number of very good reasons to buy and good reasons not to buy. Investing is both a balancing act and narrowing down the list of stocks to buy. We only know perfect information looking back, we do not know what will happen in the future. The issue is when you examine the reasons to buy, how solid are they? what assumptions are you making? If the company is making profits, you can determine if you believe the company will continue to make profits. If the answer is yes, then it can pay a dividend and while the stock price will go up and down, your total return over the years is healthy.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

When you buy shares in a company you are a part owner and you have some rights including voting at the Annual Meeting on the Board of Directors, the auditor and executive compensation. The other rights is to determine if you believe the company is headed in the correct direction. As with most things, some people or institutions own more shares than others and as CEO one of the first things you have to learn and do is count shares to have over 50% plus one. If you cannot count shares, eventually in an election, your side will lose and then you have to suffer the consequences. Generally, most shareholders vote for management, unless they are enriching themselves too much and much of it is either illegal or in the grey area. However all shareholders can voice their opinions.

In an article by Niall McGee of the Globe and Mail, the British activist investment firm Bluebell Capital is calling for the ouster of Glencore CEO Gary Nagle. To put in perspective, Swiss based Glencore is one of the largest commodities trading and mining companies in the world. Their reach is massive. For example, it owns 26 thermal coal mines in Australia, Columbia and South Africa. Thermal coal is used in steel making. Glencore is considering buying more coal assets in Canada through a company called Teck Resources.

Bluebell wrote the proposed acquisition of Teck is value destructive for Glencore.

Recently Glencore owns a grain handler in Canada called Viterra and has merged it into Bunge of St. Louis which is one of the 5 largest grain handlers in the world.

One of the problems with Bluebell voicing its concerns with Mr. Nagle is at the AGM, Mr. Nagle received a 99.43% vote of approval.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, for companies it is good there is wide range of individuals and institutions owning the shares of the company for they all bought for slightly different reasons, but they hold the stock. The slightly different reasons will translate into investors evaluating how the management of the company is doing and is expected to do in the future. With large organizations, there is always something to be done better, but profits matter. For some investors, as long as the company can pay a dividend, it can be held onto. When you see the news about your holdings you have the ability to evaluate and if you do not like it, find an alternative. if you like it possible capital gains will be forthcoming.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.