In the movie the Graduate staring Dustin Hoffman, Mr. Robinson tells the Dustin Hoffman character the future is plastics. It could be, but the real future was the transistor or what we call computer chips.

Recently read an excellent book on the subject called Chip War by Chris Miller published by Scribner, NY, 2022. The book highlights the history of the computer chip as well as adds geopolitical themes which the State Department worries about.

If you ever seen or used a radio from the 1930’s – it was the size of many bedroom dressers but the insides were vacuum tubes. In the 1950’s the insides of a radio was transistors. Then William Shockley working for Bell Labs owned by AT&T was trying to make the transistor more efficient came up with the by assembling multiple components on the same piece of semiconductor material. The material used was silicon thus the silicon chip was invented.

William Shockley was a genius in the labs and not a great businessman and 8 people left the company to form Fairchild Semiconductor in 1964. The start of Silicon Valley had begun. The 8 included Eugene Kleiner, who founded Kleiner, Perkins venture capital fund; Gordon Moore who gave Moore’s Law to describe the exponential growth of computing and Bob Noyce who could bring both inexpensive and quality to computer chips as well as profitability.

When Charlie Sporck joined Farichild, the company it was mostly men who designed the semiconductors and women who assemble them. Charlie was all about the greatest efficiency and keeping costs down. He went through multiple states and eventually was asked to check out Hong Kong. Fairchild was the first company to locate operations offshore but soon Texas Instruments, Motorola and all US chipmakers had operations in Hong Kong. After a decade, Charlie went to Singapore and China. Mr. Sporck said he never had union problems in the Orient as millions of peasant farmers moved into the cities to find work.

In 1968, Noyce and Moore who were unhappy with their lack of stock options and tired of dealing with head office in New York left Fairchild to form Intel. The company’s first product was a chip called a DRAM or dynamic random access memory. The advantage of DRAM is they could be used for many functions or to produce them in mass would be less. At the time, most chips were specialized or could only be used for one function such as a calculator or missile guidance computer.

Intel invented the general logic chip. The chip eventually became the x86 and came popular just as Microsoft was the software for personal computers, the computer chip was the x86. Both might not be the best, but they were picked and became the standard. Being the standard led to high margins and profitability for both companies. Each company essential had a moat around it.

The x86 also dominated the server business, which companies such as Amazon and Google run the cloud from. Today nearly every major data center uses chips x86 chips from Intel or AMD.

This does not mean there is no competition. ARM uses a simple chip architecture called RISC.

Then becomes the opportunity or blunder looking back or the innovator’s dilemma

Intel has a license to print money in the 1990’s and 2000s, then a new emerging technology comes along. At the time, mobile phones were big and clunky and did not have the infrastructure to run very well. Apple decides to reinvent the phone to be a computerized phone. Apple went to Intel and asked for chips at a low price. There was not profit for Intel and the cellphone industry was in its infancy, Intel turned down Apple. Steve Jobs at Apple went to ARM and the iPhone was launched.

In just a few years, Apple was making more money in smartphones than Intel was selling in PC processors. Today, cell phone chips consume a third of chips sold and Intel is not in the game.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, we all see the world as it is and rarely what it could be or will be because investing in high margin stocks is a good way to make money. The company is profitable, it stock is stable and rising, dividends are paid, and all is good till it is not. Looking back, there are plenty of companies you could have invested in but did not for some very good reasons. All investors do the same thing, because the only perfect information is looking backwards.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In the world of politics, sometimes politics see the world as black and white, but in the reality, it is grey, and one of the ways it is grey is supply chains for companies that manufacture. Over the years, some companies emerge as the dominant in their field and they are very hard to dislodge from that position. This means a company which competes in the field needs to specialize. This specialization is good because the product tends to the go to product, the bad side is because of the specialization the main source of material tends to be one plant.

In an article by Allison Lampert and Tim Hepher of Reuters, there was a fire in a Philadelphia area parts factory owned by SPS located in Jenkintown. SPS is owned by Berkshire Hathaway – Precision Castparts Corp. The factory specializes in high-strength nuts and bolts for engines, wings, fuselages and landing gears or according to the SPS website – it is hard to find a plane that does not have some of its parts.

The fire lasted a few days, which means the aircraft supply system will be pressured because companies such as Boeing and Airbus have backlogs to build airplanes. The nuts and bolts are made with titanium fasteners, and it is hard to find other companies doing the same thing. The nuts and bolts are needed to assemble the carbon-fiber jets. All the major aerospace companies have sent people to the Philadelphia area. Companies include: Boeing, Airbus, Safran, and GE Aerospace.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, in the world of supply chain systems, they are complex for many good reasons. Quality, specializations, quantity, ownership and the list goes on. It is the reason why managing the supply system is a very important element to any manufacturer and understanding the complexity is needed for the health of the organization. If you invest in a manufacturing company, it is important to try to understand how the supply system works and options when something bad happens.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In every economy there is always a sector that is doing better than the rest of the economy and that success generates more success which tends to lead to a boom. Then the problem of when will the boom slow down and lead to a bust. Every company in the market loves growth, but not too much and it should be profitable growth. In investing you love a boom if you are an existing shareholder. If you are not an existing shareholder, you want to capture some of the upside potential and sell before the bust. As an experienced investor you need a healthy sense of cynicism when you invest, to worry about what could go wrong and a short-term holding ends up being a long-term holding.

In an article by Tripp Mickle of the New York Times News Service, the hottest company for the past couple of years has been Nvidia. The company makes computer chips that power the AI that all companies will be and have started to use. The chips the company sells come with very health margins, which means profits are high. The company reported total revenues of $39.33 billion with a profit of $22.09 billion, both numbers were up 80% over a year.

Nvidia’s business has been buoyed by the biggest tech companies non-stop spending on AI data centers. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta have all said they will spend $65-$100 billion on data centers this year.

Much of the money will flow to Nvidia because they control 90% of the graphics power units (GPU) that power AI data systems. The newest chip is called Blackwell and costs between $60,000 and $70,00 a chip. The companies need a lot of chips.

There was a question about how many because of the release of DeepSeek which has been released for AI use based on low priced chips. Prior to DeepSeek, the tech industry consensus was to build bigger and better AI systems, will that change?

The consensus is that with DeepSeek more companies will be using AI which in return increases the use and need for Nvidia chips.

In terms of production issues, Nvidia has ramped up production of Blackwell chips and has achieved billions of dollars in sales.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, if you think about the history of computer chips starting with Fairchild Semiconductor to Intel to Nvidia, different companies have been on the forefront of change. The early companies depended on the military for sales, now chip companies are dependent on the software companies, that is a good thing. If you invest in Nvidia although it only pays a 1 cent in dividend, the strategy is the stock will move up and down, pick a number such as when it hits $150 sell a portion of your holdings and keep the rest. Ride the boom, but ensure you take profits along the way and that way you will recoup your investment and made money along the way because it looks like tech companies will spend for another couple of years.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If you are involved with an organization that adds to its programs with government funding, overtime you will see when the government changes, the language of the grant changes. All governments have agendas, parts you will like, parts you will not like, but they all have agendas. When asking the government for money, agendas need to be adhered to or no money will result, even though the money does the same thing under any government. One of the first executive actions of the Trump administration was to drop DEI or diversity, education and inclusion from government.

Corporate America followed suit, to lessen the emphasis on DEI. At annual meetings, shareholders vote on a number of issues including appointment of auditor, compensation of senior executives and results of the company. If groups wish to include more questions, all companies have a process of when questions have to be submitted, approved and sent to shareholders to vote on.

In an article by Michael Liedtke of the Associated Press, the National Center for the Public Policy Research submitted a question designed to scrub corporate programs designed to diversify its work force at the Apple annual meeting. The proposal was accepted by the Board, it was included in the questions sent to shareholders before the meeting (most shareholders vote before the meeting) and reported at the AGM. Apple’s shareholders said no to the proposal.

Apple did commit to investing $500 billion in the next 5 years in the US which could create 20,000 jobs. The government can then decide what is more important dropping DEI or are investments and jobs more important to its agenda.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, all companies seek talent and often talent is not always walking through the door, people have to have a reason to apply to the company outside of needing a job. The desire to seek good talent and the desire to adhere to government regulations is a balancing act, fortunately most of the time, agreement between companies and government is common.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Yesterday’s article focused on the oil and gas industry of Russia, today we look at the other sectors of Russia. If a peace agreement is reached and sanctions come off, will businesses rush to Russia?

In an article by Patricia Cohen of the New York Times News Service, there is a thought that businesses will not rush in quickly as Russia has changed in the last 3 years of war with Ukraine.

The country’s war-driven economy is struggling with a 21% interest rate, labor shortages and a shrinking number of middle-class consumers.

According to a database complied by the Yale School of Management, more than 1,000 corporations have left or curtailed operations since the sanctions were imposed.

Agathe Demarais, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the Russian business environment is extremely difficult, the risk of expropriation is high and the Russian economy is not booming.

The companies that have stayed in Russia don’t fully control their revenues and assets. Companies deemed unfriendly by the Kremlin often had to sell their businesses for pennies on the dollar and pay a 35% surcharge deemed voluntary to the government. Those companies that remained could not legally send profits outside Russia.

Western firms such as Danone, Carlsberg and German state energy company Uniper had their assets seized.

While Russia has great amounts of oil and gas, its trade before the war was 1.7% of the world’s total output.

Most multinationals in Russia earned no more than 1% of their global revenues in there, according to researchers at Yale, but there are always exceptions.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, in every country there is opportunity, the issue is how much profits can be made? There are markets in every country, but there is easy money to be made and harder. It will likely be European companies move forward before American ones when there is peace.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If President Trump is successful in bringing a peace between Ukraine and Russia, one of the affects will the scrapping of economic sanctions the western countries have placed on Russia. If one looks at Russia from an economic point of view, it has tremendous oil and gas reserves. There was a reason why Russia was the favored country by Europe to buy oil and gas. The infrastructure is in place and the government needs to sell oil and gas to recover the Russian economy.

In an article by Stanley Reed of the New York Times News Service, the question is will western companies rush in when sanctions are lifted. At one time, Pepsi out sold Coca-Cola in Russia, will they come back?

Before the sanctions were put on, and after the USSR fell apart the 3 biggest players in the Russian oil and gas fields were BP, Shell and ExxonMobil.

ExxonMobil was working in Russia’s far east near Sakhalin Island and worked on it for over 20 years. However, in a 2023 regulatory filing, it wrote off the project of $4.6 billion as management deemed the carrying value of the asset not recoverable. During this 20-year period, ExxonMobil was considered to have a relatively good relationship with its Russian partner Rosneft, the state-controlled oil company.

The energy giants, whose projects take years to complete, would also need to be convinced that they would not wind up facing new restrictions in a few years in the event of a change in the government in the US or renewed aggression by Russia.

Tatiana Mitrova, a research fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy asked why would the majors rush back in when they have attractive opportunities in the world including Gulf of Mexico near Guyana and Brazil?

One company that could go back to Russia is TotalEnergies of France. The company wrote off $14.2 billion on its Russian business in 2022 and has continued to import LNG from a facility called Yamal that it helped develop in the Russian Arctic with Novatek, a Russian company which Total owns 19% stake.

Smaller companies such as SLB formerly Schlumberger, as a company that continues to work in Russia providing training and hydraulic fracturing and other supports.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, all companies operating outside of borders see markets and opportunities and with it comes global risks. Sometimes the risks are in favor of the company, sometimes it against, but where do they see opportunity to maintain margins?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Every week there are government data that is released and has an effect on the stock market. In general people know the big numbers because they are reported on news sites such as the CPI or consumer price index. Is inflation increasing or decreasing? what will be the effect on interest rates? and the list goes on. The role of the government is to collect the information and then release it to the general public, which can do with it as they like.

In an article by Matt Lundy of Reuters, in recent years economists have raised concerns about companies and consumers shunning surveys to produce vital information about business conditions. But in the early days of the Trump administration their worries have shifted trusted data is disappearing.

The Trump shut down information of websites to comply with gender, diversity and other matters. The slashing of costs of government has also made government data suspect.

People who do use government data from hedge fund managers, to researchers, to students, public health, business owners.

The disappearance of data has wide ranging effects. Government produce reports that the private sector cannot replicate. The statistics inform everything from academic research to corporate decision making, said Erica Groshen, a former commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) which is part of the Labor Department.

In order to produce the report it relies on the goodwill of the participation of households and businesses to fill out surveys with private information. If the response rate falls the economic data will be less reliable.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, all companies are concerned with data, in larger companies it is big data both from internal and external sources. There is a mixture to paint a larger picture of what is happening to determine what the company should do in the future or make capital allocations. t is reasonable, if the data from the government is suspect to ask about how decisions are being make and relied on.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Most people live in urban areas and as more people move around the urban areas, they tend to get crowded, or congestion begins. 50 years ago, the thought was to build new highways and that would solve the problem. The issue is it does for the first few years, but soon the new highways are congested, and the road system thoughts begin again. Ideally there is a mixture between transit and the road system which allows people soon level of choice. There are advantages and disadvantages to taking the car and riding transit for the individual and society at large. One suggestion that seems to successful in London, England is to bring in congestion pricing system on vehicles. This solution tends to send more people to transit either subway or the commuting train system.

In an article written by Philip Marcelo of the Associated Press, the city of New York has imposed a congestion price on vehicles through a $9 toll if the car enters Manhattan neighborhoods south of Central Park. The city says city traffic has brought modest but measurable traffic reductions.

When governments get elected, they often know what they do not like. The Trump administration through the US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy will work to stop the tolls.

The other side of the issue is the state government through the Metropolitan Transportation Authority which runs the New York subway and other public transit. The MTA had plans to use the money from the tolls to issue bonds that would fund billions of dollars in improvements and repairs to the city’s creaky and cash strapped transit system which carries 4 million riders daily.

Who funds the transit system when all governments are cutting back expenditures?

Linking to dividend paying stocks, when governments are in place during the first 100 days, they often know what they do not want, but not necessarily what they do want. After 100 days, it will be their job to find solutions, because they are now responsible. There are always tradeoffs in government policies, and it is up to the private sector to find the opportunities in the tradeoffs. After the 100 days, the administration should signal what it does like and what kind of regulations it will or will not impose and then companies can try to work within the system until the next election. For dividend paying stocks, the ideal is to work beyond the election cycle to see the opportunities that will allow to continue making profits to pay dividends.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

President Trump likes tariffs, he sees them for many things, and he has implemented tariffs before. He may do them again, but given he has done them before, what were the results?

In an article by Jason Kirby and Mark Rendell of Reuters, the short answer was higher prices for consumers and pain for American manufacturers.

A 2024 paper by David Autor, Anne Beck, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson found that few jobs were created in the protected sectors. Import tariffs on Chinese and on goods had neither a sizable nor significant effect on US employment in regions with newly protected sectors. Foreign retaliatory tariffs had clear negative employment impacts particularly on agriculture, and these harms were only partly mitigated by compensatory subsidies.

While the 2018 tariffs didn’t do much to significantly boost jobs, they did boost prices.

A recent study by the US International Trade Commission assessed the impact of the steel and aluminum tariffs on production, prices and downstream industries. It estimated prices went up 2.4% in steel and 1.6% in aluminum.

US Steel and aluminum producers ramped up production after the tariffs, $1.5 billion more steel and $1.3 billion more aluminum. However, the tariffs had a significant negative impact on downstream industries.

Industrial machinery, cutlery, and auto parts and manufacturing were all hit hard causing a decrease in production values of $3.4 billion.

The biggest beneficiaries of the tariffs in 2018 were American steel producers, whose profits surged.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, similar to all government actions there will be winners and losers. In the case of steel and aluminum, the story is 2018 was if you owned the producers that is a good thing, if you own the companies that use the materials that was a negative thing. If President Trump goes ahead with his proposals, be sure to evaluate your holdings and make adjustments.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.