On the North East of the US is a bank called TD – it also has operations from Maine to  to Florida and is located in Canada. If you had bought 100 shares in 1983 and left it your account, you would now have 2,400 shares and the dividend would bring you $4,500 a year which is more than the 100 shares cost in the first place.

What is the catch? it takes time, but your research included stocks which can grow their dividends in a predictable way. The word predictable is the noted because the firm which was focused on John Heinzl’ s column Dividend growth – an investor’s best friend jheinzl@globeandmail.com is Kaspardlov Laverty and Associates who run a Predictable Dividend Growth fund.  According to Pat McHugh the other indicators he looks for include:

a relatively low price to earnings multiple

a relatively high dividend yield

a high return on equity or ROE

a high degree of earnings as measured by stability of income.

These things matter for what they should tell you – dividend increases, because that signals a high level of confidence in the future. That and it would look bad if the board of directors increased the dividend and then turned around and said we made a mistake, because the first question shareholders would ask is what else did you made a mistake on?

The return on equity offers the company has a very good cost controls or they have their pricing model correct. The companies are probably focused on the long term.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, much of investing is picking the right stock in the first place. If you pick one which pays a dividend, has the ability to raise the dividend in the future, then you should be able to hold an receive the dividends for a long time without worry and risk. If the company can pay their dividend, because they are profitable the multiple at which the company’s stock trades rises over the years and you are wealthier.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

One of the many books are written about the weather is called Extreme Weather by Bonnie Schneider, palgrave macmillan, New York, 2012. Ms. Schneider is a Meteorologist and her focus is a guide to surviving many types of natural disasters, for similarly to disaster planning on an individual basis most of us know about it but we really do not do. We have ideas, we tend to think our spouse would take charge and things will run smoothly similar to the way they were running before. However, if you were involved in a flash flood or tornado or hurricane or heat waves or snowstorms or tsunamis or something else and lost property what would you do? The reality is most of us would wing it and rely on our credit cards for a period of time. Many of us moved away from our immediate families to work which is a good thing, however it times of crisis do you know where to turn to? what agency would you look towards? In many disasters individuals have to help themselves first and then government and its agencies come later.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, on the checklist is having an emergency fund, a good idea is to invest the money in a monthly plan that grows and hopefully the disasters does not happen. The fund would at least ensure money is not going to be on top of the list, it should always be people first. Houses can be fixed or rebuilt, many people live in the same house for 30 plus years, but they sell it. If you buy a new car, you likely sold the old one – we are all capable of letting go stuff. Natural disasters just force us to do it sooner. He all hope for a long life of stability and the big action is on the TV screen either the news  in a far away place or in a fictional TV show. Even if the news is in a faraway place there is always a connection to the area in which you live, you may at first do not know about it, but it seems someone in the community is connected to the event. The world is smaller than you think it is.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions

Around the word, the first conversation between people has to do with the weather. Many days are nice and wonderful, some days are too something either hot or cold and then extreme weather happens. It used to be every 25 years, but now it seems extreme weather is happening every couple of years and maybe every year. Not surprising books are written about the weather and one of them is called Extreme Weather by Bonnie Schneider, palgrave macmillan, New York, 2012. Ms. Schneider is a Meteorologist and her focus is a guide to surviving many types of natural disasters. Part of it is planning  and part of it is luck. What we do know is extreme weather has a habit of dislocating normal routines after the natural disaster is over. For example, if there is flooding and you own a property, the water will have gotten into the house and it will take a long time to clean it up. No matter what type of extreme weather – it often involves some people dying and a desire by the survivors to talk about more education or what to do when something of that nature affects their community. If you need help with a check list – Ms Schneider’s book offers several chapters on things you can and likely need to do in advance of Extreme Weather and some of them are things you can  do even if you do not normally get extreme weather or it is a useful checklist no matter what type of weather is going on.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, if the business world because people have bosses, many types of plans are made and tested. What happens to the company’s operations if extreme weather happens? What are the back up systems? What is the normal time to be in reasonably normal operations again. Planning has taken place. We expect company’s to have made many plans to offsetting the negative impacts extreme weather has on the company and maybe even to take advantage of opportunities if the competition has been affect more than normal. If it is good enough for the company to have plans, it follows it is good enough for the individual. If extreme weather happens and the company is not prepared or manages at a below par level, it is time to look for other alternative dividend paying companies.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions

The book The Soldier’s Trade – British Military Developments 1660-1914 by Frederick Myatt, McDonald & Jane’s, London, 1974 outlines military happenings through the years and the tactics for war changed. The goal of defense of the country never changes but how to battle the opposition does. In the early days, there was few people in armor so essentially the armies beat each other with swords and axes on the appointed day and whoever was left standing won the battle. In the evening both sides collected the dead and dying and then determined if the battle was to continue the next day or go home.

Henry 1 introduced archers into the mix. When the average person lived in the country archery was very useful to know. Long bow archery takes more skill and many fathers taught their sons how to be archers. When peace came, the boys begin to want to do something else. Archers just allowed arrows to be shot first, to injure or kill the front lines so the troops would come down and battle each other. The archer role was limited with the use of gun powder.

In the book, the author believes the best general, the British army has ever produced is the Duke of Marlborough. His campaigns during the War of the Spanish Succession were brilliantly conceived and carried out. He achieved this through the brilliant appreciation of the landscape, planning, careful deception and cover plans, good administration and freedom of manoeuvre afforded by the remarkable marching power of his armies when well-trained and adequately supplied with food, clothing, footwear and other necessities.

Marlborough made the platoon, or the half company the fire unit. Under his new system each platoon fired in turn (all three ranks together) so that the fire ran down and down the line again in a continuous thunder-like roll. The horsemen used shock action only against enemy horsemen and they were to rely on the weight and speed of a disciplined charge to overthrow any opposition.  For ranges outside the musket, the cannon was used

An interesting commentary about the American War of Independence  is the British lost because of the guerilla tactics of the Americans as well as the unintelligent leadership. The British could not adapt.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, similar to looking at the British army over the years, it was not blessed with great leaders all the time. Only a few of them were great, thus if you only buy on the basis of management, you have to very selective. If you buy on the inherent moat around the company which allows it to be profitable on a year to year basis, your dividend is safe and as when management is great it is a nice bonus, the stock will rise in value.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions

In dealing with the great change of the economy, it is occasionally good to look back to other great changes through the years. Many areas had changes and they have consequences both good and not so good. The book The Soldier’s Trade – British Military Developments 1660-1914 by Frederick Myatt, McDonald & Jane’s, London, 1974 describes developments wonderfully. For example, a great invention was when rifles were rifles were introduced, however consistency was not to be found. In the movies, the front lines, shoots their rifles but after a few rounds shot they were out of ammo, the troops charged and used the rifle butt or the bayonet as a weapon. The reason – the rifles did not have many bullets, the rifles were inconsistent so there was no choice but to use the ends of the rifle to help.  There is an old saying, do not shoot until you see the whites off their eyes. The reason is it took many years before the rifle was accurate to what you expected and needed. The shorter the distance the more the accuracy. It took years to figure out the correct engineering specifics and needed materials.

As years go by, inventions make the rifle more dependable and it truly changed the manner in which wars are fought. The writer made an interesting point, when comparing weapons in history, check out the advances in sportsman rifles first. The military were often slow adaptors to changes in weapons.

The writer also discusses cannons, infantry and cavalry which all went through changes as times went on. For example when cannons were introduced – they were hard to move around, because of their weight. Once in place they were very effective, but they had to get to the point where they were in place. As materials and wheels changed the cannon becomes a more effective tool.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, we all look at what is and think what is now must have been the expected, that is rarely the case. From a great idea to a full functionary aspect in the military or companies operations often takes time. If you buy shares in a company that already makes a profit and pays a dividend as the new inventions come, the old company can be even more profitable and entrenched in the areas they serve.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions

In all countries, the people who ruled them and where their bones are important. Some countries have specific graves for their leaders, others are buried in hometown cemeteries. When the country has a history of monarchy or Kings and Queens, usually there are very defined traditions where the bones go. In England, a former monarch who lost the battle and his life, bones went missing. In part, the new King did not want them to be known, for he had to consolidate his power and send out nasty press releases of how evil the former King was. The book The King’s Grave is the discovery of Richard III’s lost burial place and the clues it hold by Philippa Langley and Michael Jones, John Murray Publishers, London, 2013. The reason why you may know Richard III is from the Shakespeare play Richard III. In the play, Richard III is depicited as a hunchback or not a pleasant Monarch who killed his relatives to become King or the evil King who need grabbed power for power sake. Some of the stories about him are true, so not so much, but read or see the play anyways.

Often times in a story similar to this, the clues have been available to the public for a long time, it is just there was a lack of money or technology to actually do anything. For example, King Richard has a society and people have looked for the clues for generations. However, it is still very difficult to actually dig up a town which is functioning. Sonar type of equipment is needed to see if there is something under the earth which would make digging worth while. Also where do you dig? similar to most towns and cities, they change after 500 years of people living there. Maps change, buildings expand or contract, roads are moved, things are not what they seem to be. The society kept at it and they got lucky. All the clues pointed to the the best place where to dig was a asphalt car parking lot. No buildings were built on the land, if true than maybe, just maybe.

It turned out to be true and the bones were found and some of the myths are true, King Richard III did have a problem with his spine or one shoulder was higher than other, but he was not a hunchback. One of the things you can do with a skull is facial reconstruction – he did not look like the devil, but a regular person. History is always written by the victors, and the victors always put themselves in the best light and the enemy in the worst link, after they are the enemy. They must have been something wrong with them – ideas, personality, G-d was not with them, something. It generally turns out, they are not necessarily different than the victors. The bones of Richard III now have a proper burial tomb and slowly the myths about him with be changed.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, whether you are researching clues of a 500 year mystery or researching clues to the best stock to buy, you will be dealing with myths. which you need to change to reality. While the stock market in general goes up (the index drops the laggards twice a year, and brings in winners – it should go up) not all stocks perform the same. To achieve growth with less risk, investing in profitable stocks which pay a dividend is a great way to start. Which stock you pick is the tough part, but if the company is profitable, you have a better success rate.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions

The Art of War – War and Military Thought, by Martin Van Creveld, Cassell & Co, London, UK, 2000 is a good introduction to strategies of war. One of the strengths of the Rome in times of the Emperor was the famed Roman Legion. The legion was divided into 3 lines according to age and experience. The youngest formed the front lines, the more mature men the second and the veterans were in the rear. Each line was divided into 10 groups of 120 men and grouping was staggered so they covered the intervals This allowed the reserves to be fed into the fighting line to reinforce an attack. It also allowed the forward groups to fall back to retreat and/or rest.

Over the years there has been many debates whether Jomini’s idea about geometry in a two-dimensional space making use of communication of every sort and manoeuvring among all kinds of natural and article obstacles or Clauswitz’s unrelenting emphasis on the need for a single, climactic, annihilating battle is the best method.

Each new technology changes the tactics of the battle line – long bow arrows, to cannons to rifles to machine guns to tanks and planes. Each new technology also brings in new strategies, Basil Liddell Hart believed direct attacks against the enemy’s front had to be avoided at all costs since they inevitably ended in failure. The better method to restore power to the offense and save casualties is the indirect approach. Rather than attacking the enemy head on, the enemy had to be weakened first by having his limbs cut off, his organization disrupted, and his mind of his commander unbalanced. This could be achieved by combining rapidity of movement with secrecy and surprise. If the offensive comes from unexpected directions including following the route least expectation given the terrain. In this fashion, blue has at least two branches that are flexible enough to draw back if necessary.

With the use of the nuclear war, for many the idea for the military had been to win wars has been changed to the chief purpose of the military is to prevent war.

Guerilla warfare influenced developed as a strategy, for smaller units are harder for a large institutional military to deal with. No one really knows what strategy is best, but everyone knows the number of years there has not been a war are very few indeed.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, during wars people die – first the people who took the most of the battle were soldiers or those in the battlefield. Now days the battle includes citizens who may or not be supporting one side or the other. Wars involving the stock exchange and stocks just involve money. One side wishes the other side to either pay more or one company wanting to stay independent, so the next company can pay more. Getting paid more is a good thing, for having been paid there are more options to invest in other dividend paying stocks and everyone goes home at the end of the day.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions

The Art of War – War and Military Thought, by Martin Van Creveld, Cassell & Co, London, UK, 2000 is a good introduction to strategies of war. One of the greatest of all western writers on war is Karl von Clausewitz whose book is called On War. He was a general in the Prussian army stationed in Berlin and focused his writings on two questions: what was war and what purpose did in serve? He would find an answer and the research against military history and his own experiences or his approach was both deductive and inductive. He did not go into detail about every formation but to provide commanders with a basis of though and make in unnecessary to reinvent the wheel every time. To answer the first question what is war – Clausewitz defined it as an element act of violence in which all ordinary social restraints were cast off. Since force would naturally invite the use of greater force, war also possessed an inherent tendency towards escalation which made it essentially uncontrollable and unpredictable ‘ a great passionate drama’  The key was a question of possessing the qualities needed to counter and master these inherent characteristics.

Given the high degree of uncertainty and friction involved, Clausewitz suggested the best strategy is always to be very strong, first in general and then at the decisive point, War was a physical and moral struggle by means of the former. Since the enemies strength was concentrated in his armed forces, the first objective of strategy ought always to be smash them; this achieved, his capital could be captured and his country occupied.

Consider how Clausewitz looks at the relationship between attack and defence. The outstanding quality of attack is the delivery of the blow. The outstanding quality of the defence was the need to wait for that blow and parry it. All things being equal it is easier to defend than to attack. There would be a culminating point where the attack would turn into a defence, and the defence into an attack, that is, unless the enemy had been smashed and decisive victory had been won first.

Why war – war was not simply a phenomenon in its own right. A product of social intercourse, it was, or at any rate ought to be, a deliberate political act. ‘ a continuation of policy by other means’. The logic was to be provide from the outside or a policy otherwise in would be a senseless thing, without an object.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, with profitable companies they occasionally buy other companies to diversify their income streams. Many times money is lost because management does not get the business right, this is when shareholders must ask what is the objective? why? and if you do get a good answer, move on to other dividend stocks. The other aspect to learn is similar to war, if a company is involved in a takeover bid, the price of the shares in announced and if it is not good enough the bid will take a life of its own, which management may not control.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions

The Art of War – War and Military Thought, by Martin Van Creveld, Cassell & Co, London, UK, 2000 is a good introduction to strategies of war. When the author looked at the European experience – there were many books written about the tactics of war – the use of arms, marching, combat, deployment; however very few about strategy. The key element is the map. Today very few people would drive off without a map or access to one on their smartphone, but maps for a long time were not that accurate. By the end of the 1700’s maps were accurate and could be used to do strategy behind the scenes or not in the General’s head. The earliest person credited for using the new technology is a Prussian officer and writer Adam Heinrich Dietrich von Buelow. He talked about lines of operations – the army moved and operations flowed, often these lines would be stretched how much is the key. He suggested if the lines stretching from the flanks should meet at the objective in such a way they form a right angle. Proceed further from this and you risk being cut off by a side stroke.

The next addition to strategy was by Antoine Henri Jomini who added other concepts such as Theatre of Operations and Zones of Operations. After this more complexity developed along with the lines being called blue for friendly, red for hostile. Are the divisions separate and operate semi independently? If you wanted to deliver a swift blow if a blue army was between two red ones, so before the red lines could unite the blue lines would fight the red ones.  Whatever the precise manoeuvre selected it was a question of bringing superior force against the decisive point.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, in war strategy a map and a plan are needed to find the weakest link to attack to divide and conquer. When you are buying a hundred shares of a large company, there will not be a great impact, but what you are doing is not buying others. If you begin with a dividend, you narrow the field to those that are profitable and the management returns profits to shareholders. As long as the company remains profitable it will be desired by others who will help push the share price up.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions