Whenever there is a war, there are advance troops which go out beforehand to gather information, figure out a plan and try to do the plan without any of their troops being injured or killed. Fortunately for most of us, the organizations who pay us there is no killing in person, sometimes there is downsizing but no one is killed. For the people who have to worry about being killed, it is useful to learn how they do what they do. What steps do they have or need to have in order successful complete the mission. One of the books which goes inside America’s most secret special forces is a book called Killer Elite by Michael Smith published by Cassell Military Paperbacks, London, UK, 2006.

In the book the author goes through missions which the Washington political class orders the military to take. Similar to all politicians there is a desire for a short term result. The conflict is the elite squads tend to discuss the debriefs and lack of communication ranks high. Prior to drones, it was relatively easy for the military to access satellite photos to see structures, but the intel needed is what is inside. How many rooms? what is their layout? where are the people the group is interested in? the details are what humans are needed for.

In a number of military ventures – communication was used. As the world moved to cell phones, it is relatively easy to track people. The military used planes loaded with communication devices which allowed the networks of the people to be connected and located. As time went by, patterns could be discovered – who is important? who are the prime contacts?  what does the person do? Then plans are made to more easily identify and takeout the targets. Planning, information and timing are critically important.

In all ventures, the people are highly trained and are taught to blend into normal life to gain intelligence. Often times clues can be found in the newspapers, but you people are still the key to intelligence and they give it for a variety of reasons. People are people.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, the process the military uses can be adapted to your research. How do you buy your last stock? Read about it the newspaper, heard about it on TV, or put it on your radar and started to follow and investigate the company? If you were a venture fund, you would reject most of the pitches even though they sound good. Research takes time and makes and saves you money. It does not have to military precision, but you will need to answer the question why did you buy it? then you will know when to sell.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In a recent article by David Berman, he discussed about stock buybacks. A company has cash in the bank and rather than investing in the business decides to reduce the number of shares outstanding by buying them back at the market price. If all things are normal, the profits are distributed over few shares which means the earnings per share increases which could increase the share price. In 2017, companies in the S&P 500 spent a total of $519 billion on buybacks according to the S&P Dow Jones Indices.

With everything in Wall Street, the are always two sides – pro reduces the shares outstanding which increases the earnings per share and the stock should rise because the multiple for EPS is low.

The other side is called the contrarian view – in the past the lowest buybacks are in a bear market when stocks are less expensive and more tends to be in bull market when stocks in general are higher priced. Perhaps it is better to sell when companies are buying.

Buybacks are liked because if a company is able to buyback shares, it is in or should be in good financial shape. Buybacks are favored by management because it allows them the flexibility to buy the shares as opposed to increasing a dividend. If they increase the dividend, then it will be permanent or if next year lowering the dividend is not a good thing.

When the lowering of the tax rate by President from 36% to 21% expect more of the 15% to increase buybacks in 2018.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, the first aspect of whether a buyback is good or not is the company profitable? If it is then it has the option to either do buybacks, increase dividends or invest in the company. Ideally it can do all three. Buybacks help drive up stock prices, however if you are investing in a long term whether the stock price goes up a few points should not matter too much. When it jumps above 50% above what you paid then you need to look at options. If you sell, you can diversify into other dividend shares and essentially own the remaining shares at lower cost. Then you do not need to worry if the shares fluctuate but you can worry they have long lasting in the marketplace.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

One of the oldest companies in the US has be General Electric or GE which has its roots connected to Thomas Edison and the founding of electricity or at least the commercialization of it. GE is over 126 years old and for many years owing and keeping GE shares would have been a great thing for your portfolio. Prior to 2008 it was number one or a significant player in 5 different profitable ventures and its senior management felt they should be top 3 in the areas where they operate. Then 2008 happened and GE lost money on its credit division and soon became a smaller company. The company has retained its power, aviation, health care and recently bought Baker Hughes  oil and gas.

While having a great assets means the company will continue if it is not profitable the shares fall the company will be restructured. The example of GE shows as an investor you may like a great many companies but have alternatives just in case.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, with some companies it seems they were the darlings of the industry, think a few years ago about Jack Welch and his management style. Now GE has changed, it did not do anything bad, the world changed. The company still makes money just not as much as they used to.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In the world of media properties there are only a few global ones and both Disney and Comcast wish to get bigger by buying Fox. In an article by Sonam Rai and Liana B Baker of Reuters, Comcast has expressed an interest in buying Fox for cash. Disney was offering cash and stock. Cash is always nice but for Fox’s largest shareholder Rupert Murdoch cash would mean a large capital gains tax payable. The assets Mr. Murdoch would keep at Fox would be Fox News, Fox Business Network and Fox Sports. The assets for sale are Fox’s film, TV and international businesses including Sky PLC in Europe.

An interesting quote was made by Brian Wieser an analyst at Pivotal Research – AT&T wants to buy Time Warner. The President has made comments on the proposed deal, the analyst says it depends if AT&T and Time Warner is passed by regulators if there will be one than one bid for Fox.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, the larger the deal the more governments need to ok the deal in a nod to consumers. In this fashion, when rates go up the government can say the company made a commitment to do something or other. Working with the government is important.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In 2008, the bank industry was in crisis and since law makers had missed the opportunity beforehand to do something, action needed to be taken after the fact. The bill became known for the 2 individuals that made lead the hearings Dodd-Frank Act. The Act limited the amount of leverage a bank could take on as well as allowing the Federal Reserve to monitor the bank more closely. In an article by Elizabeth Dexheimer of Bloomberg News some of the details were outlined. In 2008, it was difficult to pick a number but the Dodd-Frank determined if a bank  held greater than $50 billion in assets then the government felt it did many good things and regulations over $50 billion were more stringent than under $50 billion. By 2010 a recovery was underway in the financial institutions, banks began to not like the $50 billion, it was too low. The banking lobby felt $250 billion was a better number. After years of lobby, the number and other measures was passed by the US House of Representatives.

The article notes before you buy a smaller regional bank for your portfolio, if the bill passes through Congress, it will take the Federal Reserve a few months to a year before it changes its rules significantly according to Jared Seilberg an analyst at Cowen.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, all companies have government regulations- some of it should be there, some of it needs to be there and some companies would like to do with less. Which of the some is always the debating issue. A profitable company can handle the regulations, if there are less then the business may feel nice for the moment or until there is a crisis or too much competition for the company’s healthy margins. When that happens a call for more regulation will occur.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In politics, building and strengthening relationships are part of what governments do. Ideally if you can help turn an government that has not acting favorable to your government to one that looks upon your government as favorable then your foreign activities has been successful. In the case of North Korea it is a different country because it devotes money to the military and military resources without having an enemy. The country has a nuclear program and millions of people are living in poverty being controlled by the state. If the people were thriving and people in neighboring countries wanted to live in North Korea it could have enemies. However no one really wants to go to North Korea. The President staked his reputation and much time and resources on being the person to help change North Korea. The meeting was off now is on for a smaller scale.

In business, relationships are economic in nature. If your company has something another company wants – be in technology, people, customers then the other company needs to either buy shares in the company or enter into mutual beneficial ventures to explore how each other treat each other. If the company president discuss how wonderful these relations could be and are and the other company sees them as smaller ventures or exploratory, there is a disconnect between followers of the company and the company public relations.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, one of the advantages of being a profitable company is other companies will want to do deals with the company. Some are great, some are no so great and some are pie in the sky. There is an old story about someone who said he won a large cash prize from a lottery but had not cashed it out. It went on for some time and no one knew if he had won or not. The reality is whether he won or not he wanted to be treated like he had. Some people treated his as he did and gave him extra time and resources on him in hopes they would get a share when he did cash in. Others treated him as they would everyone else and of course there were people who did not believe he won and treated as the eccentric person. Which one was right? No one knows because lottery tickets expire if not cashed in after a few years. Which type of President do you think the President is in terms of making a deal?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In 2008, all financial institutions around the world were facing financial pressures. All banks are active in the bond market and one of the best performing assets for a long time was mortgage backed securities. When people are genuinely vetted for their ability to finance a mortgage, the default ratio will be very low. By 2008, in order to get more product in the marketplace and not caring about vetting, mortgages for 1% down or lower were being offered. It is not surprising many went underwater as soon as they were refinanced at higher rates and mortgage backed securities began to default on a massive scale. When that happen the banks, in order to keep on the plus side of the regulators needed a capital infusion. In the case of Barclays Bank they sold equity to the oil state Qatar.

In 2008 with all bank executives trying to raise money for their institution, who can lend and how to structure a deal was seemingly blurred. In an article by Lawrence White and Kirstin Ridley of Reuters, the British banking regulator – the Serious Fraud Office believed Barclays had asked Qatar for an investment on one hand, and arranged to give them a $3 billion loan or the size of the investment on the other. If the purpose was for a public company in Britain are normally prohibited from lending money for the purchase of their own shares know as “financial assistance”. The executives at Barclays argued they did not bring the rules and a court believed them.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, all companies have rules and regulations they need to abide by and the rules and regulations tend to followed better when a company is making money. When they are desperate for additional capital, rules and regulations are fudged till the crisis is solved. Upon solving the crisis, the company goes back to following the rules. It is easier to invest in a profit making company rather then a company losing money.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In many aspects of life things we in general should know, we do not. This brings in various theories to trying to understand. One example is Flight 370 or the Malaysia Airline plane? On March 8, 2014 flight 370 took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport reached the border between Malalysian and Vietnam airspace and shortly afterwards disappeared. How does a multi million dollar plane with an impeccable safety record just disappear? No one knows and Richard Belzer, George Noory, and David Wayne wrote a book called Someone is Hiding Something published by Skyhorse Publishing, New York, 2015. The book was published a year after the plane disappeared and still no answers have been forthcoming.

If you read how the social media giants have a position for you during your 24 hours you are alive, you begin to wonder how a Boeing 777-200ER just disappeared. Throughout the world there are tracking systems for each and every aircraft by the manufacturers, the airline, control towers, and list goes on and on. These planes are built to inspire confidence in the passengers that if trouble happens, help will arrive as soon as possible.

The book goes through a number of explanations:

the weather – it was a clear night

Hijacking – there are built in procedures for the pilots to notify people; lock doors to keep people out; remote control of aircraft flying; and the list goes on. No one ever presented a demand and all the passengers and crew were fully vented by authorities.

Pilot Terrorist Activity or Suicide – could not find any evidence the pilots wanted to be dead. They had lots of reasons to continue living.

Mechanical Malfunction/Fire – if there was one, the air traffic controllers would have known the exact moment that something had changed during the course of the flight. If there was a fire it would have been picked up in satellite photos.

Aliens – we do not know, but how do you interview aliens

Shoot-Down by Missile – the examples of a plane shot down by missiles tends to leave pieces on the ground. Nothing has been discovered – no oil slicks, pieces of the plane, lifejackets or anything that would float.

Sabotage – if a bomb was set off inside parts would be seen

Advanced Technologies – while it is possible to control a plane, why this one?

US Military Base Diego Garcia – the island is located off the coast of India and the US has been used by fighter aircraft because it is easy to reach Africa and northern Asia from it. It seems there was a cell phone a passenger with coordinates near Diego Garcia.

4 years after the crash still no one knows 100% what happen to the plane.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, with many investments you will need to sort through great amount of information to either prove or disprove your theory. The more you work trying to find the theory, the more effort you need to put into the work. If it researching a company, it is always best to start with the basics. Is the company profitable? how does it make its money? and are the results sustainable? If the answer is yes, then by all means put the stock on your alternative list to buy. You will need to know is the price relative to others a good price. What is your target and what will you do if you achieve it? At least with dividend paying companies you can determine which companies you want to invest in and which ones you can study later.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

 

 

 

Most hospitals have a volunteer bureau running a clothing thrift shop for the donations are free and the money goes to buying new equipment at the Hospital. Travels in the past was to go into a hospital thrift shop with a friend who knows how clothing is put together. My view is closer to do I need it? do I like the color? is the clothing in good shape? and one of the finds was a pair of shorts for $2. My friend knows how clothing is made can look through the racks and found a shirt that has extra cotton weaves to keep the high quality of the shirt for $2.00. Both of us found a wear able bargain. My savings were about $20, hers was about $100.

In investing it is very similar, when you look at the possibilities of investments you have to narrow the field in order to buy one thing or another. Continually reading and learning about what you have and what alternatives there are helps you make a decision and if it is an informed one, it is a good decision. How good only time will tell.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, investing is about narrowing the field and one method is to start with dividend paying companies. There will be a number of them but at least you will know investing in profitable firms over the long term will increase your wealth. The nice thing about dividends is while you are waiting for the increase in stock price you receive a dividend to increase your total return.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.