Dividends and Is today’s AI boom bigger than the dot-com bubble?

When the markets go up at reasonably high level, it is always worth asking is this a bubble or is something else. For everyone who invests in an asset hopes it goes up in value, but when do you sell or take advantage of the higher asset prices? The answer is always in hindsight, you have perfect information, but for the most of us it depends.

A little over 25 years ago, the stock market was going up based on the dot-com bubble. The internet was recently opened to the public and companies that had an idea were getting funded. Everyone thought the dot-com revolution was going to free up time and energy and we would all live a life of semi-leisure, but not surprisingly that did not happen.

In an article by James McGeever of Reuters, in 1999 the top companies by valuation were GE, Citibank, Exxon, Walmart, Home Depot and 5 tech companies The market fell by 65% and it took 14 years to revisit its highs. At its peak, there was a frenzy of public offerings and a raft of companies with shares valued at triple-digit multiples of future earnings. (also there turned out a lot of insider transactions on the public offerings).

This year the top 10 companies by market capitalization are tech companies including Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Telsa, Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan. The combined market cap of the top 10 today is almost $22 trillion or 40% of the S&P 500 index.

Torsten Slok, chief economist of Apollo Global Management the 12-month forward earnings valuation of today’s top stocks is higher than it was 25 years ago. However back then the S&P tech sector was trading at 50 times earnings, as opposed to 29.5 times at the moment.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, the only thing we know for certain is stock prices go up and down. If you have made a lot of money, it is easier to sell something which you made money and buy a defensive stock that pays a healthy dividend. You will leave some money on the table, but you will worry less or can sleep better at nights. We all want more; the question is always how much more and how much risk are you willing to a accept? both now and in hindsight. Trimming a holding is better than saying I should have. If you are an investor, you have will have I should have in your portfolio, for they tend to be long-term holdings by default. Have long-term holdings for a good reason.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and Buyers blame tariffs for rise in steel prices

In many industries the hardest job of senior management is to raise prices. People know many things about every industry, where the fixed costs are? what variable costs are possible? but sometimes government policies make it easier.

In an article by Peter Eavis of the News York Times News Service, American steelmakers are raising prices, forcing new costs onto domestic manufacturers.

Two big US producers Cleveland-Cliffs and Steel Dynamics reported they have charged more for their products in the 2nd quarter than they did in the 1st quarter.

About 1/5 of the steel sold in the US is imported. Tariffs went from 25% to 50%, which made imported steel more expensive. And as imports have declined, US producers have more power to opportunistically increase their prices, buyers say.

In the 2nd quarter, the average price of Steel Dynamics’ steel was $1,134 a ton, up from $998. Cleveland-Cliffs price went from $980 to $1,015 a ton or an increase of 16%.

Thomas McCartin, a senior economist with the pricing and purchasing service at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated these are profit-maximizing firms, the domestic mills are going to try to get as much as they can.

According to the American Iron and Steel Institute, the top exporters of steel to the US are Canada, Brazil, South Korea and Mexico.

American-made steel is the most expensive in the world, and some analysts say domestic producers have gained a tight grip on US trade policy that allows them to charge more.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, tariffs increase prices. It tends to be a lagging indicator, but over time tariffs increase prices and companies that seemingly are immune from tariffs will use them to increase prices. Increasing prices over things being relative equal means greater revenues, the equation is simple, the execution is the most watched element by investors. Does the company have the ability to raise prices to increase revenues or will alternatives be found?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and Chinese car giants rush into Brazil

President Trump has decided that the world the US has dominated for generations will not be dominated anymore. Ever since WW II, because the war did not affect the properties inside the US, the country has played the role of leadership. The Marshall Plan helped rebuild Europe, the outsourcing of jobs built up Southeast Asia and as China grew it drew raw materials from around the world. There was also relative peace in the globe as raw materials flowed from where they were found to countries that used them. In President Trump’s second term he decided that should change which is why he put a tariff on every country. Under Newton’s physics law of for every action there is an equal reaction. If a country pulls back, then another one steps in.

In an article by Somini Sengupta of the New York Times News Service, the auto companies have been global giants for years. There was truth in a statement made by a GM VP – what is good for GM is good for America. Part of the global dominance was auto companies had factories in many countries around the world, but times are changing.

In Brazil, home to 200 million people and the world’s 6th largest car market, the Chinese car companies are turning to Brazil to make cars. Chinese auto companies make and export more cars of all types than any other country in the world. Chinese companies dominate the global manufacture of battery-powered vehicles of the future. They also control the supply chain for virtually everything that goes into those cars.

In Sao Paulo, Great Wall Motors has moved into a factory that used to make Mercedes Benz vehicles. Great Wall specializes in affordable electric vehicles.

The Chinese has set up factories in Hungary, Indonesia, Russia, Thailand and Turkey.

In Brazil, BYD took over a factory that Ford used to manufacture vehicles for over 100 years. The street where the factory is in Camacari, is called Henry Ford Avenue.

Chery, has teamed up with a Brazilian company, Caoa, to produce cars in central Goias state.

Marcia Lima, head of the Brazil automaker association, noted so far, the new Chinese company are mainly assembling cars with components imported from China. That does not advance the Brazilian auto industry.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, President Trump can believe that tariffs are designed to open borders, but someone has to have the correct item at a point where sellers meet buyers. It might be wishful thinking because the competition has walked into an opportunity. If made in your home country is important to your domestic consumers, why does that change when you cross a border? Politics is about many interest groups; business is about the monetary transactions, when you are investing pay attention to the money, the politics sometimes will help, sometimes not so much.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and AI takes on Morrisseau fraud

After you have made money and the dividends are flowing into your account, you might think about diversifying your portfolio into art. For hundreds of years, people have been collecting art and artists need patrons to exist. For every type of artwork, there is somebody who really likes it and wants to own it. Sometimes figuring out who they are is the tough part to selling art, but there is a market. As prices begin to rise for the artwork, there is somebody who wants to copy the style and sell you their art disguised as the original or there is fraud in artwork.

Only after an artist becomes famous and their artwork is catalogued and carefully maintained can a person buy the art without really knowing it is a fake or not. If you think about the great masters, they often had apprentices, did the master do the work or the apprentice, but it was the master’s vision. After learning, did the apprentice copy the master or develop their own style? who knows.

In an article by Tara Deschamps of The Canadian Press, for one artist Norwal Morriseau there is an app for that.

Mr. Morrisseau was an artist for most of his life but became famous late in life. He lived a varied life with and without a great deal of money which meant that people knew and like the style, but few people knew if the paintings were fake or not. In the past years, many collectors have discovered their paintings were fake as more than 6,000 fake paintings were sold at a cost of $100 million. The fraud is known as the biggest art fraud in world history.

In the case of Mr. Morrisseau, an app called Acrylic Robotics founded by Chloe Ryan. The software runs on AWS or Amazon Web Services and logs every movement, detecting millions of details in one piece, including the strokes, brush pressure, pigment and speed.

If anomalies can be detected, then art experts, historians can dig further.

Apparently most art experts who value art are staying away from Mr. Morrisseau’s art because of the great many fakes.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, in all businesses, fraud is a concern. It is rallying cry to cut fraud from the public service. What is fraud? AI can help and over the next few months and years, we soon will see the auditors used AI to detect fraud in the books.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and China is spending billions to become an AI superpower

In recent weeks, President Trump went to Pittsburg to announce major AI investments at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit at Carnegie Mellon University. Companies are spending over $90 billion in projects such as data centers, energy innovation center. The private sector companies investing include: Amazon, BlackRock, Alphabet, Gecko Robotics, EQT, and PNC Financial. The collaboration between universities, the government and private companies will make Pittsburg a hub.

In an article by Meaghan Tobin of the New York Times News Service, when China is contrasted to the US, it is the government allocating the resources to AI.

China is closing the gap which the US leads, to make technologies that rival the human brain. The Chinese government has spent a decade funneling resources in AI as well as electric vehicles and solar power industries.

Kyle Chan, an adjunct researcher at the RAND Corp, said China is applying state support across the entire AI tech stack, from chips to data centers.

For the past 10 years, Beijing has pushed Chinese companies to build manufacturing capabilities in high-tech industries for which the country previously depended on imports. That approach helped China become maker to a 1/3 of the world’s manufactured goods and a leader in electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels. It also applied to the essential building blocks of advanced AI systems: computing power, skilled engineers and data resources. A Wall Street Journal video on Black Factory – an automobile factory lights were on low because 99% of the work being done was by robots, people were needed to maintain the robots. The auto company was lowering prices because the robots work 24/7.

In the US, the emphasis is on private companies, in China it is the central government. To concentrate talent, the Chinese government financed a series of labs where much of the advanced AI research takes place, often in collaboration with big Chinese tech companies such as Alibaba and ByteDance.

The Chinese government has directed banks and local government to go on a lending spree that fuelled hundreds of startups. Since 2014, the semiconductor fund has spent nearly $100 billion with $8.5 billion to startups. For local government, they have sent up entire neighborhoods that function as startup incubators such as Dream Town in Hangzhou, which is home to Alibaba and DeepSeek and is known as a hot spot for AI talent.

The government covers 10-15% of the costs for startups. When Deep Principle moved to Hangzhou, it received $2.5 million subsidy as well as local officials helped with office space and housing for employees.

There are advantages and disadvantages with the Central government setting directives such as the many are caught off guard with advances in generative AI behind ChatGPT model.

Chinese companies use open-source models as the fastest way to catch up to Silicon Valley which makes it easier for engineers around the world to build on their systems. What will be the world’s standard?

Linking to dividend paying stocks, some of these companies are profitable because what they do is the standard in the world. Everyone else has to do the same thing and as long as the company can continue to offer leadership, they will be the first choice of customers. In technology, things change quickly, but the returns tend to be built over the long-term. It is hard not to start with the largest companies as your partner. Companies often see their competition from around the world, while western governments want to focus on inside their borders because consumers see what is in front of them. There are many competing interests, which makes even if there are flaws in the model, the government is looking in the correct direction.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and Chevron’s $53 billion Hess deal greenlit after Exxon’s legal challenge fails

One of the many methods large companies stay large is to buy smaller companies particularly when they have assets which offer profits for generations to come. The larger companies can afford to pay a healthy premium and the owners of the smaller company will typically convert some of their shares into owning a piece of the larger company. It is easier to see the process in the commodities or natural resources sector. In the tech sector, companies are buying talent.

In an article by Michelle Chapman of the Associated Press, in the oil industry, one of the biggest discoveries of oil is off the coast of Guyana. The country will soon be the 4th largest offshore oil producer in the world being ahead of Qatar, the US, Mexico and Norway.

In the world of offshore drilling, because of the expense and risk, companies often partner up and fight for the best blocks. Three companies of Exxon, China’s CNOCC and Hess have squared off in a heated competition for the lucrative oil fields in northern South America,

Chevron was late to the party, decided to buy Hess for $53 billion in October of 2023. With the ruling, Mr. Hess (also owner of the New York Jets football team) joins the board of directors of Chevron.

Exxon sued Chevron at the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris, France which Chevron won. Exxon said they disagree with the ICC panel’s interpretation but respect the arbitration and dispute resolution process.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, in the world of natural resources, all the players know each other, they serve on many industry associations, but they are competitive in the marketplace, particularly with trophy assets. A trophy asset means a license to print money, if the asset is well managed. Often smaller companies find the assets, but it costs a great deal of money to develop the asset and for that the larger companies are needed. When the company you own has a trophy investment, all you have to do is determine if the asset is well managed and will continue to produce profits for the company otherwise it is time to find alternatives.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and South Korea’s top court clears Samsung chair in case over merger

In every country, what is in the national interest is an issue. From an outsider, the answer seems confusing, because the laws do not seem to be applied equally. However, if the desired national interest is successful, then the results could be construed as the ends justifies the means.

In an article by Joyce Lee and Heekyong Yang of Reuters, the South Korean top court cleared Samsung Electronics Chairman Jay Y Lee of accounting fraud and stock manipulation removing a long-running legal risk for the country’s biggest company.

Samsung Electronics is the world’s top memory chip and number two smartphone maker. It is part of the Samsung Group is the most successful family-run conglomerate which helped Korea transform after WW II to a leading global economy.

The court case cleared Mr. Lee for charges related to two Samsung affiliates, Samsung C&T and Cheil Industries, which prosecutors said was designed to cement Mr. Lee’s control of the tech giant. The merger was $8 billion in 2015.

Analysts said the ruling clears a layer of legal uncertainty, which could be a long-term positive for the company.

Samsung’s lawyers said they were sincerely grateful to the court for its decision and added, the merger was legal.

The Korean Enterprise Federation said the ruling removes a major legal burden for Samsung and comes at a time of intensifying global competition in high-tech industries such as AI and semi-conductors.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, every profitable company gets sued and that is why they have legal staff in house and on call. The legal system takes time and sometimes companies go into the grey area. In this case, there was a disagreement over a $8 billion merger because one can easily imagine that given Mr. Lee’s pardon from a former President of the Korea and the prominence of the Lee family in Korea, the case had to be very good, or it would not have gone forward. Many profitable companies that can pay dividends, the relationship between the President and government officials means the case has to be extra airtight to go forward, it is just a fact of life.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

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Dividends and China’s economy grows steadily despite Trump’s trade-war chaos

If you have been following the news since President Trump announced Liberation Day or tariffs on every country in the world, the heaviest tariffs were place on China. The US is the world’s largest economy and China is second. They both share values in capitalism, although the internal politics are different and for that reason China is an enemy or a friend worth watching. The US is the biggest consumer of Chinese goods, so tariffs make goods more expensive or should have an effect on inflation in the US.

In an article by James Griffiths of Reuters, the Chinese economy grew 5.2% in the 2nd quarter, a better-than-expected rate.

According to official statistics, GDP growth was down from the 1st quarter of 5.4%. One would have expected GDP to be up in the first quarter as companies stocked up on items before the tariffs were imposed.

China has focused on domestic consumers buying more of the goods being produced for the US but now they are more expensive, there are surpluses. In a statement for China’s statistics bureau said consumption is now the backbone of growth.

In addition to the emphasis on domestic spending, the central government of China was ramped up infrastructure spending, added consumer subsidies, the bank rate or interest rates were cut in an effort to cushion the economy from the effects of tariffs.

China is aiming for a 5% growth, but companies such as Oxford Economics believes that growth will only be 4.7% up from 4.3%.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, while China is the second largest economy and is the manufacturing hub for the US, the US only accounts for 15% of the GDP. The country is diversified which means tariffs hurt, it does not mean the economy goes into a tailspin. If you buy a profitable making company that can pay dividends, you can determine where the bulk of the revenues come from and how they will and could adjust to markets being cut off for a period of time. Most profitable companies are reasonably diversified and can continue making profits, it is just not as big till the company adjusts to the markets they were cut off from.

There are more questions than answers, till next time – to raising questions.

Dividends and Meta’s Zuckerberg pledges hundreds of billions for AI data centers

There was a movie called Jery McGuire that was about a football agent and one of his clients in the movie said “show me the money! and had Jerry repeat the phrase. That phrase is a good way to examine how companies spending their money on. What you as an individual or what a company spends money on or the allocation of resources, is the priority.

In an article by Jaspreet Singh and Aditya Soni of Reuters, Mark Zuckerberg said, Meta Platforms will spend hundreds of billions of dollars to build several massive AI data centers for superintelligence.

The social media giant is among the largest tech companies in the world. The first multi gigawatt data center dubbed Prometheus is expected to come online in 2026.

Industry publication Semi Analysis noted Meta was on track to be the first AI lab to bring a gigawatt-plus supercluster online.

Meta the owner of Facebook and many other sites generated $165 billion in revenue last year, reorganized its AI efforts under a division called Superintelligence Labs. The division is to be led by former Scale AI CEO Alexadr Wang and ex-GritHub chief Nat Friedman. Meta bought Scale for $14.3 billion.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, profitable companies generate lots of revenues and one of the most important jobs of the Senior Executive is the allocation of resources or show me the money. When you do your homework, because homework is never done, how your companies allocated their resources is what is important?

There are more questions than answers, till next time – to raising questions.