Where we live in the world, that area is what we think about first. If you focus on the New York markets you spend time thinking about what is the federal reserve going to do or not do? However, if you around the world to Europe, you might ask what is the European Central Bank or ECB doing or not doing? Europe has a range of economies – some doing okay, some flat line and some not doing well at all and somehow the ECB must manage the entire lot.

In an article from Reuters, the ECB will focus on more emergency bond purchases and cheap loans for banks whit it puts together its new stimulus package for December to help out the pandemic-hit euro zone ECB president Christine Lagarde said.

The ECB’s job was to keep borrowing costs sufficiently low for households, firms and government and support the banking sector to prevent a credit crunch. The 2 biggest tools have been the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) and Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRPs).

Ms. Lagarde said while optimistic about the vaccine, it will be some time before there is widespread immunity is achieved.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, if more stimulus is needed in Europe, do you believe it is needed in the US? What is different because the Central Banks have been using the same type of playbook. Most of us are focused on the areas where we live because that is what we come into contact with, but ensure you look around the boundaries to gain a better perspective and decision making.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If you read or listen to the press around the world, COVID is increasing in Europe and North America which means people are more likely to stay at home or not drive vehicles. Ever since 1973, the world has paid attention to OPEC as they raised prices in that year. OPEC believes global oil demand will rebound more slowly in 2021 than previously thought because of rising coronavirus cases.

In an article by Alex Lawler of Reuters, demand will rise by 6.25 million barrels a day (b/d) next year to 96.26 million b/d, the growth is 300,000 b/d less than expected a month ago.

OPEC is expecting demand to be down until mid 2021, by then hopefully people around the world will be getting the vaccine. OPEC would love to raise production but for now, it is lowering them.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, President Trump often said he was a cheerleader for the economy, but those in the commodity business live and die based on supply and demand. When demand is high, prices move upwards, when demand is low, prices move downwards. Fact check your favorite politician with forecasts from commodity producers, you will receive a fuller picture, in order to make a decision.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If you think about Amazon, Alibaba is similar in China, it is the largest internet seller of goods and to increase sales they created singles day. In a similar fashion Amazon created Prime Day to boost sales and have “better sales for consumers” and to take advantage of it, consumers need to be on their platform. In 2020, according to Josh Horwitz of Reuters, Alibaba sales for its post-COVID-19 Singles’ Day was $74 billion.

The Singles’ Day event is the world’s biggest sales event or even bigger than the upcoming Black Friday and Cyber Monday events around Thanksgiving.

This year Alibaba increased the number of days Singles’ Day ran and the $74 billion was spent on 16 million discounted items. More than 340 companies including Apple, L’Oreal SA and Huawei Technologies Co Ltd exceed 100 million yuan in sales with 13 brands recording Gross Merchandise Volume above 1 billion yuan.

In a poll before Singles’ Day, Sina Entetainment found that 4% of the 191,000 people who responded expected to spend more than 10,000 yuan compared to 43% who aimed to spend less than 1,000 yuan.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, retailers are always trying to make consumers spend more money and making up reasons or allowing someone to rationalize their decisions easily is a good thing to do. In the US someone made up Valentine’s Day and it has morphed into expectations of receiving something. It is what retailers do and as public we buy into it. For your investments which appeal to the consumer, what do the consumers buy into?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

We all hope the COVID vaccine happens sooner than later, however realistically the distribution of the vaccine for all people will take months. However in Washington what will politicians do? before the election some Republicans after 4 years of President Trump realized the actually stood for lower government spending and lower government deficits, they wanted a small stimulus. There were others who thought if you send voters a check just before they vote, they would vote for the President since the letter would be signed by the President. The Democrats wanted a great deal more money for people, hospitals and state government who are not collecting millions in tax revenues because people are not spending on entertainment and restaurants they way they use to.

In an article by David Randall of Reuters, noted Jonathan Golub, chief US Equity Strategist for Credit Suisse saying “You have to assume in general that whatever level stimulus you would have received will probably be less because policy makers will say that the economy will mend.” Pfizer has announced a vaccine is 90% effective and will soon be able to used if they receive the necessary certification process.

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economist at Allianz SE, the corporate parent of PIMCO cautioned that stimulus relief was still required to minimize the pandemic’s economic and social effects. The inclination is to argue that the fiscal support is no longer needed. That would be wrong.

Jabaz Mathai, head of US rates strategy at Citigroup wrote neverthelesss a stimulus package would be ideal to create a bridge for the economy.

Will we receive a stimulus and how much is the question, in some ways some of the answers will be clarified after January 5 Georgia election for 2 Senate seats as the Senate is tied between the 2 parties.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, for companies which consistently earn profits a stimulus helps ensures people keep spending and paying their bills. We know there is a part of society which has not been able to work full time because of the shutdowns. Given the US economy is influenced by consumer spending, a stimulus package would help the economy and that would be a good thing.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

The Christmas season which runs from Thanksgiving to Christmas Day and on to the new year is the most important season on the shopping calendar. The season can count for 50% of profits for the year, as the January and February months typically are the slowest months. The above means much rides on the season. This year the big concern is COVID, how will shopping happen when the country is going through a second wave, knowing the good news in the new year, sometime, vaccines will be available.

In England, Pan Pylas of the Associated Press noted the lights were turned on at Oxford Street but there was little celebrating for many shops have been ordered to close till December 3. During the first lockdown shops were closed nearly 3 months till mid June.

If the lockdown lasts to December 2, Helen Dickinson the chief executive of the British Retail Consortium represents nothing less than a nightmare before Christmas.

Britain has already recorded the most virus-related deaths in Europe with nearly 47,000. The decision has dashed the British economy might recoup by the end of this year a large proportion of the near 25% of output lost in the spring. The British economy is expected to contract a further 10% in November.

The Bank of England has increased its bond buying program by at least L100 billion ($130 billion) to keep a lid on borrowing rates in the markets and to ensure money keeps flowing through the financial system.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, we all follow traditions and expectations in order to make sense of the world. There are things that happen in the economy similar to the world of nature every month and quarter, if they happen as what is considered normal, we all follow the patterns and live life what is considered normal. When there is a only going threat, most of the population will react slowly but eventually they will adjust, when they adjust changes will be made until the next time things are not normal. With dividend paying stocks, we want normal to happen so there are few surprises, this means continually doing homework if alternatives need to be changed in your portfolio.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In China livestreaming or selling goods online is expected to reach $210 billion, which is propelling more and more merchants to sell in this manner. It helps that most people in China have a Smartphone with apps which makes shopping and spending more very easy. Livestreaming is similar to the Home Shopping Network without the TV studios.

In an article by Nathan Vanderklippe of the Globe and Mail. In China, not all regions of the country are doing well or have done well economically but people are people and they are will to try something new. Small shopkeepers are being offered the ability to livestream in the evening hours their goods and some will sell things. It is noted that many shopkeepers open during the day and then livestream in the evening makes for an even longer day. However similar to most things, it depends on how many people watch and whether they will buy or not.

In the northeast of China, in the Wu’Ai business zone of Shenyang, some of the economic planners of China are hoping livestreaming will help the local economy. The area around Shenyang was once the 4th richest area of China but has fallen to the 15th with a GDP per capita of $11,000.

The area used to have steel mills or what are now considered rust belt industries and officials acknowledged they falsified data to artificially inflate the provinces performance. All the provinces were falsifying the data that Beijing cracked down on provinces which falsify data.

To ensure merchants can livestream, the local government has pressed for better internet speeds and lower fees, built studio space for the many small merchants and offering support for small shopkeepers and mall owners. In the studio space, the government has set up incubators with instructors to help shape online and livestreaming.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, there is no magic formula when an area goes into economic decline but a lot of help does wonders. For dividend paying stocks there are tax advantages to access, for small business they want a reasonably level playing field, although most of the businesses will remain small. If it works at the small business level, expect the larger business to copy and continue to put on pressure on the small business to stay small.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Prior to November there was big excitement with the world’s largest IPO in Shanghai and Hong Kong with the expected IPO of Ant Group. The company is a financial technology firm founded by Jack Ma who became a billionaire with the number one shopping company of Alibaba. In China instead of Amazon people use Alibaba. The issue is whether the financial tech company should be treated as a tech company or a regulated financial institution such as banks.

In an article by Julie Zhu, Meg Shen and Greg Roumeliotis of Reuters, according to to Francis Lun, chief executive of GEO Securities, The Communist Party has shown the tycoons who is boss. Jack Ma maybe the richest man in the world, but that does not mean a thing. This has gone from the deal of the century to the shock of the century.

To revive its listings, Ant is trying to establish if it needs to disclose more information to the Shanghai exchange about its relationship with regulators or if the exchange expects Ant to resolve on its issues with regulators before going ahead.

Ant Group is a financial technology firm which people use to bank, invest and make loans. The Chinses regulators are worried about underwriting loans amid fears of rising defaults, who is responsible? Ant originates demand from retail consumers and small businesses and passes that on to about 100 banks for underwriting, earning fees from the lenders with minimal risk to its own balance sheet.

Ant’s consumer lending was 1.7 billion yuan (or $254 billion) at the end of June or 21% of all short term consumer loans issued by Chinese deposit-taking institutions. Only 2% of its loans that it had facilitated were on the balance sheet.

Under draft rules published by China’s central bank and banking regulators. small on line lenders must provide at least 30% of any loan they fund jointly with banks.

The reporters interviewed a banker from Hong Kong with close ties to other Chinese fintechs said the the new rules were tailored made for Ant. The banker said Ant may have to split into a number of companies – payments, mico-lending, and wealth management.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, this was a huge blow to Ant Group because the IPO has taken a number of years and had the blessings of the government till in did not. One expects companies in the marketplace for a number of years would have built up the relationships with regulators and government to ensure they have rulings before the action. There are always competing interests and and always other methods to do things including for politicians doing nothing. In business you wish to do something, but it is important to understand how government can and does affect your investment.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If there is one thing everyone around the world can agree on is there is greater debt than there was before COVID, governments around the world have increased their debt levels. Bondholders of the debt will have an increasingly large say about the activities of many countries, unless the world comes together to repay the debt.

In an article by Rodney Muhumuza of the Associated Press, one of the countries in Africa is Zambia and it is important to the world because it is one of the world’s top producers of copper. If you remember early in the year, the Group of 20 said public debt would not have to be paid for a while and freed up $20 billion for low income countries. The countries are seeking an extension of paying debts.

However, $3 billion in debt held by investors including China is coming due and what will the G20 do? In the past few years, China has been increasing its presence in the African economy including raw materials and holds about 1/3 of the sovereign debt and the world is wondering what influence will China have. According to Nathan Hayes, an analyst with the Economics Intelligence Unit in 2021, $20 billion in private obligations as well as $14 billion in bilateral debt is coming due.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, for generations American and European investors have counted on their governments to the backstop to their investing outside of their countries and institutional solutions have evolved. China is the new player and they have different interests, although everyone follows the same formula Good Sold – Costs equals Profits. If there are profits then dividends can be paid and all is good.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Not long after John D Rockerfeller formed Standard Oil it became the largest energy company in the world and the US. Standard Oil was so big and powerful, Congress broke in up and eventually Exxon became number one energy company. Throughout its existence, Exxon has been the number one energy company, but COVID happened and demand for gasoline dropped which has resulted in Exxon no long being the number one energy company. Who is first? NextEra Energy the world’s largest producer of wind and solar energy. Exxon and Chevron bounce between 2nd and 3rd largest.

In an article by Jennifer Hiller of Reuters, Exxon will be cutting 14,000 jobs because of weak demand but the dividend which is yielding near 10% due to the 50% drop in the price of the shares is questionable. If you own an energy stock, it likely was Exxon but if oil remains below $45 a barrel, Exxon will loses its cash balance. To maintain the dividend, it might have to sell assets.

Darren Woods spent heavily to boost output and turn around sagging profits by buying land in the US share oilfields, global refining, plastics and offshore Guyana where it struck one of the biggest discoveries in a decade.

In 2020, Exxon has cut spending plans by $10 billion to $23 billion as debt has risen 60% since 2017.

Linking to dividend paying stocks for all its existence Exxon has been a great stock to hold and collect a dividend. The total return had been wonderful and it looked like it was going to last forever or as long as we had internal combustion engine vehicles. Something changed rapidly and commodity prices went lower, it was a double whammy. In 2021, we expect the economy will have shaken the COVID but would you wait or find an alternative. With dividend stocks, it often takes multiples changes before you need to find alternatives, but it is good to know them just in case.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.