For many decades, it has been reasonably easy to determine why the price of gold has increased. Everyone knows gold has been an inflation source and if someone lives in an economy which collapses, having physical assets such as gold is very helpful in getting out of the country and starting in a new one. Gold is seen in jewelry, coins and central banks own it, but there is a new player.

In an article by Mike Dolan of Reuters, there are many analysts who search the world to determine who is buying the gold? Until recently the focus was on central bank managers in China and the developing world. Add to that sizable private buying and strong inflows into exchanged-traded gold funds, and there’s the familiar flight to safety narrative.

Another buyer is Tether, the issuer of the US dollar-pegged crypto token or stablecoin USDT and smaller gold-backed token Tether Gold XAUt.

Investment bank Jefferies calculates gold buying from what’s now the world’s largest digital assets company exceeded official central bank purchases over 2 quarters through September 30.

Tether owns 116 tons of gold for its customers – about $14 billion. That made it the largest single holder of bullion outside the big central banks.

Gold’s price rose in 2 waves this year: the first was a $1,000 per ounce jump in 4 months tied to the tariff shock and a 10% drop in the US dollar. The second was a $1,000 per ounce jump without the normal rational reasons as well as the dollar did not decline.

Central banks bought 220 tons in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

Jefferies notes Tether bought 26 tons in the 3rd quarter or 2% of the gold demand. In the 2nd quarter Tether accounted for 14% of central-bank buying.

At last count, Tether reported holding 104 tons of gold as part of USDT’s reserves and another 12 tons backing XAUt.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, in every industry as an investor you make some basic assumptions on the reasons why the stock goes up and down. If you own investments in resources, if a new discovery is made, if it can be taken out of the ground and refined and sold at current prices, then can expect a good return. But what is driving the price of the resource? We make assumptions because they have worked in the past, then something new happens and you need to examine the assumptions. For your investments, what assumptions are you making?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In April, President Trump announced to the world Liberation Day in connection to the trade and how goods move around the world. While the manner in which he did them is in the courts and the Supreme Court will decide whether the President can both enact and change tariffs by himself or does the Congress have to vote for it first. The tariffs are having an effect on the economy.

The idea behind President Trump is if tariffs are imposed on goods made outside the US, goods made inside the US will be more competitive and maybe companies will decide to make more goods in the US. It is a good idea, tariffs have been used for generations but similar to anything involving a good being made there are timelines that come into place. No company can start making everything in the US, so goods still have to be imported.

In an article by Ana Swanson of the New York Times News Service, in August imports dropped 5.1% tp $340.4 billion according to data from the Commerce Department.

Prior to the tariffs, companies stockpiled goods at non tariffs prices and it was expected the first few months after implementation importation of goods would fall.

US goods exports also fell shrinking $500 million to $179 billion as the rest of the world bought fewer American consumer goods, cars and car parts.

The trade deficit fell 24% to $59.6 billion compared with July.

According to the Yale Budget Lab, the US effective tariff rate is more than 18%, the highest level since 1934.

Tariffs are likely to continue to weigh on imports in the coming months. Because of the rush by businesses to stock up before the tariffs, US companies held off on increasing their prices as they worked through the old inventory. Eventually the inventory will need to be replaced, and companies will pass onto the consumer higher prices.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, if you own profit making companies, these are the companies that will need to pass on higher prices assuming they cannot replace the goods to American made. Chances are high they will not replace everything because it does not exist and offshore makes it cheaper and equal quality. Some higher value manufacturing can be done in the US, but CEOs will explain it at Investor Days and quarterly meetings. The issue for the investor is done the company have the ability to pass on higher costs in the form of higher prices. If it does, it can be a good company to own.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Hopefully, you know that the AI is coming and will be in very wide use soon, but what does it mean for the labor market and long-term growth? For those of in the baby boom generation, having money for retirement will soften what the labor market is doing or not doing. For others, it is a very important question.

In an article by Chris Wilson-Smith of Reuters, there are competing views turn on whether the latest wave of AI behaves like earlier technological breakthroughs, with productivity gains arriving only after costly reorganization or whether its acceleration marks a shift in which automation outpaces the creation of a new economic activity.

AI-related capital spending (capex) contributed to 1.1% to US economic growth in the first half of 2025, outpacing household consumption in an economy typically driven by consumer spending, a recent report from JPMorgan Chase shows. The report’s author noted that data centers once built employ few workers compared to a factory or office campus. This limits the job creation and local spending that usually follow large investments, a dynamic economists refer to as the multiplier effect.

Serdar Ozkan, a senior policy advisor for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, says AI investment follows a much longer pattern of general-purpose technologies the reshaped economies, only after years of adaption. From electrification to the rise of computers to the early internet. The visible promise of each wave arrived well before the productivity data showed measurable effect, largely because firms needed time to redesign workflows and workers had to build complementary skills.

David Rosenberg, founder of the economic consulting firm Rosenberg Research & Associates said there is a key distinction between technologies that expand an economy’s productive capacity and those that speed up tasks the companies already confirm.

AI is in latter category. This will tend to compress labor demand rather than create new forms of economic activity. This is pure job replacement with very little offsetting multiplier effect.

Earlier technological cycles eventually increased output as firms reorganized and new industries formed. But AI is narrowing the process by directly competing white-collar tasks, rather than enabling workers to do more.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, if the head count or labor employed by a profit-making company goes down, it means a cost has gone down and the company can make greater profits with less people. What is good for the company, may not be good for the individual which means your investments will tend to go up in value.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If you are a user of social media, you are aware of people known as influencers, people follow them and advertisers follow them with ads and the cycle continues. Influencers are around us in every industry and many of them are known for their expertise and long-term records. The same thing apply is investing. There is a fear of missing out of easy money and those firms who have a long-standing record of increasing wealth are influencers.

In an article by Niket Nishant and Aditya Soni of Reuters, Berkshire Hathaway under the leadership of Warren Buffett had a filing that said it owns 17.85 million shares of Alphabet worth about $5 billion dollars.

Recently Berkshire sold its Apple holding and has been sitting on billions of cash in Treasury bills. At one time it owned 3% of all US Treasury bills. What was Berkshire going to do with all the cash?

What happens when Berkshire makes an investment? Alphabet shares went up 6%.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, you buy the stocks for the dividend, but it is very good when influencers validate your decision. When you think about Berkshire, you think about they have patience and tend to buy long-term which is a perspective you need. Patience means not rushing into investments, let time work for you which is why Berkshire owns credit card companies – let the interest for you, not against you. Long-term means whether the market goes up or down and we all like it when it goes up, you receive a return on your investment in the positive. Over the long-term companies that make profits tend to do well in the stock market.

Listen to the influencers, find the ones you like, but ensure you use patience in your decision making. (personally, I sit on a foundation board and they meet twice a year, although we look at the positions more regularly, because we spend the money generated by the dividends).

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If you watch investment shows, often times the host interviews the CEO of a company. Some CEOs the host really likes and believes they are really good for the job. It is not a reason to buy the stock, because CEOs eventually change.

In an article by Anne D’Innocenzio of the Associated Press, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon is going to retire in 2026, although he has offered to spend a year advising his successor. Mr. McMillon has been CEO since 2014 and the new CEO will be John Furner.

Walmart has changed since 2014, it is still America’s largest retailer but is a tech-powered giant and under Mr. McMillon annual revenue grew from $485.7 billion to $681 billion a year. The company maintains that 90% of US households rely on Walmart for a range of products and more than 150 million customers shop on its website or in the stores every week. The company is the US’ largest private sector employer with 1.6 million workers.

One of the many things he did at Walmart was to invest heavily in employees by increasing wages, expanding parental leave and launching a program for employees seeking advancement and educational opportunities to earn certificates and degrees. (Walmart was known to keeping its wages low enough the employees qualified for government assisted health insurance)

From an investor point of view, Walmart has been laser-focused on maintaining low prices while embracing new technology such as artificial intelligence and robotics. Walmart also has the best logistics operation in the retail world.

At the store level and e-commerce, in August roughly 1/3 of deliveries from stores involved orders asking for goods to arrive in 3 hours or less and 20% made in half hour or less.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, after you have done your homework regarding the financials of the company, you will pay attention to the people who run the company including the President, CEO and who is on the Board, because you vote for the Board of Directors. If you like the people, as you follow the company you will have an idea of how the company actually works. Some CEOs you will like more than others, but it is important to note many have a 10-year lifespan so do not get too attached unless you are involved with philanthropy.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In every industry there are earlier adopters of new technology. There are good reasons why it takes people time, because which program is better for you, both individually and for the company you work for. However, those that tend to be young often are more quickly to adopt new technology. Often times they are not thinking what the ramifications are for adopting it, but they see value in using it. The latest new technology is AI and for younger people having AI help with their resume is a good thing to do.

In an article by Saira Peesker of Reuters, when one person uses AI it is good, when everyone uses it how do you distinguish between candidates?

Katrina McFadden, chief people officer at cannabis company Organigram, says her team has changed the types of questions they ask in interviews. In the past they would have asked questions that build on the CV. Now they use questions that dig into the CV.

AI resumes tend to be more generic and not especially good at highlighting someone’s unique experience and specific abilities. The resumes or CV tend to match the skill set asked for in the job qualifications.

We want to know how the person has used these skills, the outcomes they had and the progress they have made, and the interview should be in person (no using AI in the interview process).

A Robet Half survey conducted in April found 79% of the 1,500 hiring managers say they can identify when a candidate used AI to generate application materials.

Many applicants feel that an AI generated resume is the only way to get past the AI screening tools used by recruiters.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, companies need good people to work in the organization and because they make profits. they can have dedicated departments to ensure good people are interviewed and stay with the company. How is a good person determined, particularly when all openings received hundreds of resumes. How does the hiring managers narrow down the field and pick the best candidates to interview? The questions you ask about stocks can be similar to the ones you ask about people.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In the eyes of the law at least in front of the law courts, everyone is equal, once inside the law courts lawsuits take time to settle. Sometimes that is good for the larger organization, sometimes it is not, but over time a decision is made in court.

An example of this is from an article in Reuters, VISA and Mastercard announced after 20 years of litigation, a settlement has been reached. The other side is the National Retail Foundation, the largest US retail trade group and the Merchants Payment Coalition. The issue was the amount of fees a business pays Mastercard and VISA for their terminals in the store or swipe fees.

Swipe fees totaled $111.2 billion in the US in 2024, up from $100.8 billion in 2023 and quadruple the level in 2009.

Besides the money which will be allocated to merchants, the swipe fee will be lower 0.1% for five years. The merchants pay an average of 2.35% with a range from 2.0% to 2.5%.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, all companies charge fees and most of them are hidden from the end user or consumer of the goods and services. Similar to your household budget, there are fees or charges everyone pays and lowering them or even eliminating them is the goal, because then you keep more of your money. The company on the other hand, charges fees and getting the fees correct is more art than science. If the company charges too little, it could easily raise fees and increase revenues. For your investments, do the companies charge the correct fees?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In the world of geopolitics, countries try to have other countries follow the same rules and then the market can do what it does, however all countries do not follow the biggest countries because similar to most issues, it is complicated. An example is the US and Europe imposing sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine. That appeals to the voters in their countries, but the reality is all countries have something they can sell to others. In Russia, outside of the Middle East it has large oil and gas reserves and production. In Russia’s case China needs the oil and gas and if does not go through pipelines it comes in by ships. How does it come?

In an article by Steven Chase of Reuters, Remy Osman has a lovely apartment in Singapore where he can see the tanker traffic. He has a you tube channel which he identifies and captures photos of vessels on route to international waters. Once out of local jurisdiction they sidle up to another ship and transfer their oil shipments.

The growing shipping lanes in the South China sea offshore of Singapore and Malaysia are a growing site for ship-to-ship transfer of oil from countries. The reason it can be done is there are many ships going through the lanes. Once the oil is given to another tanker, it moves the oil likely to India or China.

The reason to do the transfer is to help obscure the origin, destination and ownership of the cargo. It can go to multiple sized ships and mixed with existing crude in a tanker.

The clues for Mr. Osman are: if the AIS (automatic identification system) data being broadcast from the ship is odd. For example the ship is from China but pointed at India. The second is which flag does the ship fly? If it is from an unregulated and underdeveloped maritime country which does not have a merchant fleet, it is suspect. The third clue is the age of tanker – 25 to 30 years is too old.

Singapore is about halfway between Iran, Russia and Venezuela to go to China or India. It is estimate that some 30 ships a month are engaged in the offshore transfers or about 18.2% of global oil tanker tonnage.

If you use the example of cleaning money or once the drug money gets into the bank, it is clean money. Once the oil moves into a local tanker, it is clean oil and not at the jurisdiction of those countries which impose sanctions.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, often times the volume of transactions means that the shadow world can operate in the background. It affects the volumes and the prices and invariably how much profits are gained by the legitimate companies. How the shadow world operates in your investments is important to understand.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Food is something we all need to eat and some companies are seemingly a license to print money and others doing almost the same thing, do not make money or barely break even. The issue is always why and how do you invest in companies that have a license to print money? In the food business it is difficult, but we all like to eat which means we all have an opinion.

In an article by Dee-Ann Durbin of the Associated Press, one of the owners of the food that we like to eat is called Yum Brands Inc. They own the franchises of KFC, Taco Bell, Habit Burger & Grill and Pizza Hut. If you are a relatively average consumer you likely eaten at one or more of the restaurants over the years.

At one time Pizza Hut is where everyone wanted to eat pizza. The company expanded and there are 6,500 stores in the US and another 14,000 stores around the world. The biggest location outside of the US is China, although half the sales of the company come from the US.

One of the biggest problems of Pizza Hut is the design of the store, it was designed with the expectation people would come to the store to eat their pizza or spend a couple hours. Some of the readers will remember a pizza chain saying they deliver 30 minutes or it is free. There was a number of accidents which stopped the advertisements; however, consumers want fast pick-up and delivery which was not something Pizza Hut does well.

Yum President Chris Turner says Pizza Hut has many strengths and controls 15.5% of the US pizza market down from 19.4% in 2019 according to Technomic, a food service consulting company.

The Pizza Hut team has been working hard to address business and category challenges: however Pizza Hut’s performance indicates the need the brand realize its full value, which may be better executed outside of Yum Brands.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, there is a reason why longevity is difficult in the food industry although we all have to eat. Things change, consumers change and business has to adapt or the license to print money is gone. There is money to be made, but growth rates change.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.