In every industry there are trends towards disruption of the industry. Those trends are possible, they may happen, but a number of elements have to exist before it explodes. If you take the example of the wheel. The wheel was founded or invented in early days of people, but the wheel was made from wood, and its use was for agricultural purposes. It took hundreds of years before the wheel was easily made, for carriages there were shock absorbers and roads had to be invented. Most of us use the wheels on our vehicles on a regular basis because all the infrastructure is in place to move around with relative ease.

In an article by Michael Liedtke of Reuters, Waymo (owned by Google) opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles. Waymo started the operation in Phoenix in 2020 and came to LA on a limited group of passengers. The waiting list grew to 300,000 people. Now anyone with a Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around the city of LA.

Waymo says it now transports more than 150,000 weekly trips in its robotaxis, a volume of business that helped raised $5.6 billion from Alphabet, Andreesen Horowitz and T Rowe Price. The company is still losing money, but the potential could be.

The competition includes Telsa is aiming to launch Cybercab in 2026; GM’s Cruise; and Amazon’s Zoox.

The theory is if robotaxis are easy to use and less expensive than owning a car, because for the most part 90% of the time, your car is parked. The result is car sales will go down and riding a robotaxi will be the first choice.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, at the moment robotaxis are back by some of the biggest names in the tech industry because of the learning experience and convergence of big data in the cloud and AI. Notice it needs a number of internal elements to come together as well as the regulations from the government to change. Will the new Trump administration loosen regulations?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

When you live in a country, you often think that the normal holidays or gatherings that happen in your country are the same as every other country. For example, everyone celebrates New Years because the calendar everyone uses changes. National holiday for the country’s founding is a celebration although that can be throughout the year, but we all celebrate a country’s birthday. Then there are the made-up days which tend to apply to various countries.

In an article by Zen Soo of the Associated Press, in November 11,2009 on-line service provider and e-commerce platform Alibaba started a sales event aimed a singles by offering attractive discounts to use Alibaba and spend money. The extravaganza is known as Double 11 and other on-line service providers such as JD.com and Pinduoduo also matched the sales promotions.

In China, the Double 11 event has a sales promotion attached to it as well as the normal promotional banners and posters and social media ads.

The event used to bring in double digit sales growth and that is why it has continued but China’s economy is not what it used to be and now sales are in the low single digits. Alibaba tried to expand the pie by offering free global shipping and allowing merchants to sell worldwide with ease. On one of Alibaba’s companies called Alizila a post said 70,000 merchants saw sales double with free shipping. In new markets such as Singapore and Hong Kong, new customers also doubled.

Even though the sales growth is single digits, expect the event to continue next year.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, every company loves to have customers all over the globe but when you do, it is important to ensure that globally your company accents the holidays and shopping habits of the country outside where the headquarters is.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In the retail trade, there are many elements of the reason for success of the company. People have to like what it is offered, they have to believe it is great value and they have to be repeat customers. The combination means that there is always a balancing act because people and companies like to change their offerings to keep it fresh. The raw materials can increase or decrease in prices, but usually increase and substitutions are examined. Repeat customers are the best, but every once in a while, they will try something else, hopefully coming back. When the company is public, success means most people are happy, but if the stock falls, everyone has a reason.

In an article from Reuters, the food company Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc was sued by shareholders because of growing unhappiness among customers with inconsistent portion sizes for its burritos and rice bowls. The dissatisfied shareholders say customers voiced dismay on TikTok and other social media. People take pictures of their food and post it.

CEO Scott Boatwright said the portions sizes were generous at the 3,600 restaurants.

Shareholders say the cost to repair the damage hurt margins, causing Chipotle’s stock price to fall wiping out $6.5 billion of market value. The shareholders are seeking some form of damage to purchasers in 2024.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, there is an old adage in the stock market, stocks go up and down. Sometimes the reasons are rational and sometimes they are harder to figure out. Sometimes the stock is seen as a growth stock, then it is seen as mature company and should trade at a different valuation. There are countless combinations, but stocks go up and down. One method to provide insurance is to buy profitable stocks that pay a dividend so when the stock goes up all is good, when the stock goes down there is a dividend to cushion the lower price. Generally profitable stocks trade at higher multiples so when normalcy is back in the market the profitable stocks go up first.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In all industries there are group or subgroups who benefit from one party or the other in the White House. Although the political parties are supposed to reach out to everyone, some groups automatically favor one party or another. Generally, in the business world those who favor less regulations tend to be closer to the Republican party, those who see more regulations closer to the Democrat party. Those who own businesses tend to favor the Republican party and those who organize people at work or unions stewards and higher tend to favor the Democrats. Although it is easy to find people going back and forth. the tendency to favor one or another is based on while attempting to pass laws or regulations on the industry, the starting point is easy for one party or the other. It does not mean the laws are easier, just the starting point is easier.

In the recent Presidential election, organized labor placed greater help on the Democrat party because they saw the alternative as bleak for them. Although in the past election many who work in unions voted for President Trump as President and then down ballot Democrat.

In an article by Jonathan Weisman and Benjamin Oreskes of the New York Times News Service, unions spent $43 million into the Harris campaign, according to Open Secrets. The unions also spent money and time on phone banks, canvassing operations, education and persuasion efforts with their members and outreach to non-union working-class households.

While that sounds a lot, 3 billionaires gave the Republican campaign at least $150 million. The 3 were Elon Musk, Timothy Melon and Miriam Adeson of the Las Vegas Sands.

Unions represent less than 10% of the private sector workforce. They have a majority of public sector workers.

Many non-union voters picked President Trump and they trust him. Although in his first term, he appointed union foes to the National Labor Relations Board. The people made it harder to organize workers to vote for collective bargaining. His secretaries of labor were not pro-union.

This election President Trump court union workers with policies such as end income taxation on tips and overtime. (many years ago, working for a union shop the biggest raises received were the increase in minimum wage, the company managed to keep employee costs at inflation). President Trump had Sean O’Brien of the Teamsters address the Republican convention.

Union leaders such as Shawn Fain of the UAW were all in for the Democrats.

In Nevada, the biggest industry is tourism tied to gambling and the employees of the hotels are unionized and belong to unions such as Culinary Workers. They were helping the Democrats.

If an employee works for the government or the public sector union. They are bracing for a fight because Project 2025, suggested eliminating such unions altogether. The phrase is Congress should consider whether public-sector unions are appropriate in the first place. (Congress can say they are appropriate.) Typically, Republicans do not like teachers’ unions.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, some companies you invest in have strong unions and are profitable and that includes utility companies. Some companies have to watch their labor costs as their margins are thin and there is a whole range in between. When you invest in a profitable company that can pay a dividend, part of it is understanding the cost structure including salaries and benefits. Why does the margin hold strong to keep earning a profit?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In democracies, political parties need money to run elections. Many who support a party will donate money and most will be under $100 or what is called small dollar donations. Most people who give money on the small dollar donation do not expect much reward from their government but have an expectation of good government by their definition. The difference in what is good government is often the difference in which political party is in power. Once someone goes above $500, they want something more tangible from the government, including if they personally know the person running.

Elections are expensive and billions of dollars were spent on the past election, including $1 billion by the Democrats and $ 400 million for the Republicans directly. The rules were loosened up to allow for third parties to spend for one party or the other and they spent $500 million plus. The issue is what do people want for their money?

In an article by Nathan Gomes and Zajeer Kachwala of Reuters, Elon Musk who founded Tesla, Space X, bought formerly Twitter to become X, SolarCity, xAI, Starlink and others, what does he want or expect from President Trump? After the election of President-elect Trump, Tesla shares jumped 14% on the expectation the new administration will help Tesla. It has been reported Mr. Musk spent around $250 million on supporting Republicans.

Some of the above companies do not fit into President Trump agenda, some do. What benefits will Elon get? Mr. Musk is leading a committee to cut costs, will any of the billions his companies have received from government be cut? or are they good investments? what will or will not Mr. Musk recommend to be cut?

Linking to dividend paying stocks, most profitable stocks align themselves with lobbying groups to ensure their interests are taking care of when legislation is proposed. Most politicians want to meet with senior executives of profitable companies because they have a wide range of assets including a portfolio in many states. It is a balancing act and as long as their interests are taken care, companies can work with either the Democrats or Republicans, it is seemingly easier for one over the other. You do not necessary see in the front pages the quid pro quo question of what do you want that you see with Elon Musk, but it is there.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

During the great housing crisis in 2008, many homeowners across the US and Europe saw house prices fall which meant that when it came time to renew the mortgage, people were underwater. This causes a problem both for the homeowner and bank which has the mortgage. Legally, they can only offer a mortgage to 95% of the value and how does the homeowner get a mortgage for the other part. It was cheaper to walk away and foreclosures went up. The problem in the longer term is once a house is foreclosed there is long process before it goes up for sale and anyone moves in.

In an article by Keith Bradsher of the New York Times News Service, in China foreclosures are on the rise. The roster of homes seized and list for auction leapt 43% last year, according to official data. Numerous banks have disclosed increases in mortgage defaults during the first half of 2024.

The legal system is struggling to keep up with evictions.

The increase in evictions and foreclosures piles pressure on China’s banks. They face other losses related to the real estate meltdown, including on loans to local governments, property companies in default and buyers of unfinished apartments that developers never delivered.

To make matters worse, corporate borrowers in China have long posted real estate as collateral. The value of the collateral has decreased.

According to Alicia Farica-Herrero, the chief economists for Asia at Natixis, banks have long been the best ally and instrument of Chinese policy makers, soon they might be the largest problem.

China’s mostly state-owned banking system earned more than $600 billion a year in profits before setting aside reserves to cover losses on unpaid loans. The issue is the banks pay money to China’s government treasury for income taxes, transactions fees and dividends, to the tune of 1% of China’s economy.

China has over 90 million empty apartments after a decade long construction boom. Many foreclosures involve the 2nd home often occupied by friends and family of the owner.

4 years ago, there was practically no foreclosures. During that period, new rules were passed which made evictions harder. Bidders who buy apartments in foreclosure auctions must often purchase the apartments unseen and then work with neighbor officials to persuade the occupants to leave.

According to analysts at UBS at least 7 million apartments sit unfinished across China. 4 million were bought for $350 billion in mortgages. That is about 7% of all the mortgages on the balance sheets of China’s banks.

Regulators are encouraging the banks not to foreclose on unfinished apartments.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, if you own bank stocks, while most banks make money as long as the reserve fund remains low, then it is a good time to own banks. Once the number rises, you need to seek alternatives. For all your investments you need to know what a good ratio is to determine whether you want to keep the stock or look for alternatives.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In all companies people get paid to do work and in all companies some make more than others and everyone wants more. Depending on the company, management often has a scale for most workers and the scale needs to be competitive in order to continually attract people to work there. Unless there is a recession and your workers will be happy to work there because the alternatives is bleak. Occasionally, companies will go for years and workers regret something they have given up and not received back, so the strike is not necessarily about the present working conditions but past ones.

In an article from the Associated Press, the 33,000 factory workers at Boeing voted to accept a contract to end a 7 week strike. The vote was 59% in favor and it was the 4th contract formal offer. The contract included a 38% pay raise over 4 years, ratification and productivity bonuses.

Boeing refused to bring back the defined benefit plan that was frozen a decade ago.

Bank of America analysts estimated Boeing was losing $50 million a day during the strike.

Behind the scenes, President Biden’s acting labor secretary, Julie Su, intervened in the negotiations several times, including the last offer.

The plants in Washington State produce the Max planes which is the cash cow of the fleet for Boeing. Without it, President Ortberg announced plans to layoff 17,000 workers and a stock sale to prevent the company’s credit rating from being cut to junk status.

In the national economy, Boeing is a major contributor to the exporter of goods as most of its planes are sold around the world. In addition, Boeing has continued to sign deals for new planes and has a back log of over 5 years of planes to deliver. Expect good results with the plants humming away.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, with all strikes there are a wide variety of interests to consider including pay (how does not want more) and the functioning of the company as a going concern. If a cash cow for the company is shut down, the stock price will fall which and then the company’s bankers will put pressure of management to get a deal. Every company after paying its employers contributes to the local economy and size does matter. During a strike there are pressures on both the employees and management, as an investor you want stability.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In the investing world, you want to know the cost of the inputs to the stock. What costs affect the stock the most? when you have an answer, you can determine if those how much do those costs have to go up before the margins mean no longer profits. There are many companies in the commodities related business and it is easier to see there. For example, some of the oil companies have been very profitable over the past couple of years, at what price of oil will they make money?

In an article by Alex Lawler, Mahe El Dahan and Olesya Astakhova of Reuters, OPEX + has agreed to delay a planned December output increase by a month. The biggest customer of OPEC is China and while growing, demand for oil is down from what it was. (partly as a result of slower growth, also China has the world’s largest solar farms or alternatives to oil).

8 member of OPEC + were due to raise output in December by 2.2 million barrels a day, that has been delayed to January 2025.

OPEC and Saudi Arabia have repeatedly said they do not target a certain price and make decisions on market fundamentals and in the interest of balancing supply and demand.

OPEC+ said the cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day will stay in place till the end of 2025. The next OPEC + meeting is for December of 2024.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, as an investor in a commodity you need to know at what price the commodity has to stay above costs in order to generate profits. Once you know the number you can easily determine if the company should be able to make profits to pay dividends. If the price of the commodity goes higher, expect higher stock buybacks and increased dividend payments. In addition, all companies have ideas of companies they would like to own, so expect more mergers and acquisitions. If those things happen, you can hold onto your stock for as long as the commodity price stays high.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

As an equity investor you need to invest in the stock market and along the way some of the best investment dealers will offer you advice of what to buy. They would love a continuing big piece of your investment dollars and for you to trade on a regular basis. This is where if you are a trader or long-term investor comes into being. If you are a trader, the more trades you make and the larger you pool of capital is, the better Wall Street likes you. If you are a long-term investor and tend to hold, Wall Street needs to nudge you to do more. While often we think of Madison Avenue advertising firms selling you consumer goods, the same people help sell investments. For many good reasons we have seen the rise of ETFs and that is a good thing for investors.

In an article by Suzanne McGee of Reuters, the marketing geniuses of Wall Street are working overtime to create exchange-traded funds (ETF) focused on artificial intelligence as asset managers offer new ways to tap in to the market enthusiasm for AI.

According to data from Morningstar, more than 1/3 of the 2 dozen ETFs that include artificial intelligence or AI in their name have been launched in 2024.

The AI ETF group now has assets of $4.5 billion; nuclear power ETFs have $5.5 billion and cannabis has $1.37 billion.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, as an investor you have to remember that Wall Street offers good returns for your investments, it is also one of the best marketing machines in the business world. There tends to be the ying-yang of Wall Street. At some point you will decide what you want to be a long-term investor or trader, there will always be room for both.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.