In the world of statistics, there are some data that is important at the moment and others that are a lagging indicator. The lagging indicator means it will effect the economy, just right not this month. Most people quickly figure it out, because they hear about higher prices to come and then the prices are higher. What to do about as a consumer and a business?

In an article by Lucia Mutikani of Reuters, US consumer confidence fell in June as households worried about job availability against the backdrop of rising uncertainty because of the tariffs.

The ebb in confidence was reported by the Conference Board was across all age groups, all income groups, all political spectrum.

The share of consumers viewing jobs as plentiful was the smallest since March 2021, which aligns with the more people collecting unemployment checks and a moderation in job growth.

Economists are expecting unemployment to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers it needs more time to decide how much tariffs are affecting the economy, so it left the range between 4.25% and 4.5% where it has been since December.

Consumer confidence is particularly important to the US economy because about 60% of the economy is based on consumers spending their money.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, everyone sees the consumer confidence through various lens. If you have a job, you ask all things being equal will you be able to keep it. If not, you begin to try to increase savings. This is good at an individual level, but if everyone does it spending slows and the economy retracts. What is good for individuals is also good for businesses, where is demand the highest? how are receivables -does it take more time to collect? how are accounts payable – are companies stretching the date they pay bills? ideally for profitable companies those numbers do not change, but if they do, then it is time to look at alternatives.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Every politician loves to have a slogan that is catchy and everyone sees something different in the slogan. For President Trump it is Make America Great Again (MAGA) and one of the cornerstones in the policy making is bringing more manufacturing to the US. There is much to agree with the policy, but there is also reality and one of the realities is demographic.

In an article by Farah Stockman of the New York Times News Service, the pool of blue-collar workers who are able and willing to perform tasks on a factory floor in the US is shrinking. As baby boomers retire, fewer young people are lining up to take their place. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, about 400,000 manufacturing jobs are currently unfilled. If manufacturing comes from overseas the number will get higher.

According to Victoria Bloom, the chief economist at the National Association of Manufacturers, difficulty attracting and retaining a quality workforce has been consistently cited as a top working challenge for US manufacturers since 2017. The other items of the list are tariffs and increased raw material costs.

Ron Hetrick, an economist with Lightcast, a company that provides labor data to universities and industry, noted as a society we have spent 3 generations telling everyone if you do not go to college, you are a loser. Now we are paying the price.

For some companies, remaining globally competitive involves the use of sophisticated equipment that requires employees to have extensive training and familiarity with software. And employers cannot simply hire people right out of high school without providing specialized training programs to bring them up to speed. This was not the case in the heyday of US manufacturing.

College graduates often do not have the right skills to succeed on the factory floor. There is mismatch between the not enough skilled blue-collar workers to fill the positions that exist and college graduates.

David Gitlin, Chair and CEO of Carrier Global which produces air conditioners and furnaces and services heating and cooling equipment says for every 20 posting we have one qualified applicant right now. With the rise of AI, the demand for technicians to service data centers has exploded, Mr. Gitlin estimates for each data center, 4 technicians to maintain a single chiller are needed.

We have 425,000 technicians in the next 10 years we need to double that number. But the number of people going to vocational schools is dropping not growing.

Is the federal government helping? The Trump administration’s aggressive cuts to training programs for blue-collar workers is hurting training a new generation of factory workers.

In April, President Trump signed an executive order to Make America Skilled Again, which consolidates existing work-force programs into one initiative that will give states grants if they meet certain criteria. But then he cut $1.6 billion from work-force training.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, for politicians a slogan is wonderful, but for business it has be embedded in everything the company does. Carrier Global can be another way to play the AI trade because once the chips are in the data center, the building has to be maintained. You can expect similar to Apple, services fees will rise. This is good diversification income for the company.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In every regulation that is put into place by the government, there is likely a need for it or it should not be there. The reality is not every regulation, or law is enforced the same. If you go back to the turn of the 1900’s many people chewed tobacco and if you have ever tried, you will need to spit more than every once in a while. If you are riding the trails in the middle of a cattle drive, you can spit anywhere. If you go into towns and cities, spiting is similar to dog’s pooping on the sidewalk. The solution was to install cans to spit into, as time changed the regulation against spitting on the sidewalk is likely still on the books of the city but rarely enforced because most of us do not chew tobacco.

President Trump came to office and one of his big goals was to close the border to immigration and send back anyone who came illegally, particularly if the person had committed crimes. The general public backs if the person has committed crimes, but many who are technically illegal work in various industries across the country.

In an article by Paul Wiseman of the Associated Press, farmers, cattle ranchers, hotel and restaurant managers breathed a sigh of relief that paused rounding up illegals in these industries. Then the pause was taken off and businesses were trying to figure out the government’s actual policy.

The big issue is US unemployment is at 4.2%, many businesses are desperate for workers and immigration provides those workers. According to the US Census Bureau, foreign workers made up 19% of the employed workers in 2023, but they accounted for 24% of the jobs preparing and serving food and 38% of the jobs in farming, fishing and forestry. They are also overrepresented in factories that in the food processing industries.

An ICE raid in New Mexico left a dairy with 20 workers down from 55. The issue is cows need to be milked twice a day, fed twice a day, who was going to do it or food would be spoiled.

A meat packer in Omaha, Nebraska lost over a 1/3 of its workforce, but its President said we followed the system for payroll, but ICE said the system was broken. Is that my fault?

No doubt some form of immigration standards need to be implemented the issue is who will do it? and what are the consequences of not doing it, or how can business have workers?

Linking to dividend paying stocks, depending on the industry, many companies depend on immigration for workers. Often times, it is the best and brightest that leave a country for a better life and the people start near the bottom of the pay scale. However, the skills they brought with them can be used and hopefully begin to receive higher income sooner or some form of savings. Talent pool are skills people have and all around the world, higher education is higher education, the difference is the company recognizing the talent and promoting people. Hopefully, profitable companies do this better and that is why you want to invest in them.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

If a company plays the long game, then it will often accept what appears to be unusual conditions, because it is looking down the road 20 years from now. If you examine the US, infrastructure is getting old and with budget deficits many improvements were put off. At some point, many bridges will need to be rebuilt, and they will need steel. The demand for steel will grow out of necessity.

Nippon Steel wanted in and the easiest way in was to buy an existing company. The Board of Directors agreed to the sale, then came politics. The 2 people running for President were older gentleman and they remember something of the strength of steel making in the years gone by. Technology has changed how steel is made, so companies that had not updated their mills for various reasons were falling behind.

In an article by Alexandra Alper of Reuters, Nippon Steel $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel closed with Nippon Steel buying 100% of the shares for $55 a piece.

During the political season, the politicians were saying, US Steel has to stay American owned. They compromised and Nippon Steel has agreed to allow President Trump to appoint a Board member through a golden share which gives the government veto authority over corporate decisions such as idling plants, to cutting production capacity and moving jobs overseas. Nippon Steel had committed to keeping US Steel’s headquarters in Pittsburg and the government has a veto over moving headquarters.

Nippon will be investing in the plant including a $1 billion for a new mill which will increase to $3 billion by 2028. Nippon Steel whose specialty is high grade steel, expects demand to increase across the US.

US Steel’s union the United Steelworkers was against the deal and will be watching Nippon Steel.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, Nippon Steel is looking outwards and they are aware the investments in US Steel depend on the economy and being seen as an American company to win contracts for made in America products. They are also aware, that politics will move to different interests in the years ahead and as long as the demand is in the economy they can easily work with the politicians.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In the technology world, there is a desire to be first and foremost to achieve a near monopoly position. If you can achieve it, then less money can be spent on advertising and prices will eventually go up to make profits. It often means first to service or capture a piece of the market. The Trump family has tried many licenses in the past, some succeed, some are wound down and some fail.

In an article by Bernard Condon of the Associated Press, the Trump family is licensing its name to a new mobile phone service.

Eric Trump announced the new venture to be called Trump Mobile. The plan is to sell phones that will be built in the US and will maintain a call center in the US.

The phone will be available in August at a price of $499 and is gold colored with the logo MAGA on it. The plan will be the 47 Plan (President Trump is the 47th President of the US) and cost $47.45 a month.

Although it will use 5G network of Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile. According to analysts, there are plenty of less expensive plans that are not Trump Mobile and the likelihood of making a phone in the US is slim.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, while you can admire the Trump family for announcing the plan, the reality is dollars and sense and will the plan be profitable and operating in the foreseeable future? It is great to have ideas, but the business plan must make some sort of sense to continue otherwise it will be gone in a few months.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Whenever a disaster whether manmade or from the weather, there is always an economic element to it. In offices around the world, there are consultancy groups and others who daily monitor countries for their economic activity. When the disaster happens, it will be reported in the press and we all have an idea of what the basic economic outcomes of the disaster is and we can determine if the government of our country is making the correct decisions.

In an article by Stanley Reed of the New York Times News Service, Israel and Iran are having a conflict. Iran’s biggest export in oil and gas, what does that mean to the world’s economy?

Iran’s oil ministry blamed Israeli drones for attacking part of the South Pars natural gas field, one of the world’s largest, and a refinery in the area.

Other Iranian installations are at risk. Homayoun Falakshahi, senior analyst for crude at Kpler, a research firm, said the most important Iranian asset is Kharg Island. This Island located in the northern part of the Persian Gulf is where nearly all of Iran’s oil exports is loaded onto oil tankers to go around the world.

Every organization likes to have a backup and Iran is building a facility outside the Strait of Hormuz on the Gulf of Oman, but its capacity seems to be limited.

Kpler has estimated that 21% of the world’s LNG or liquified natural gas, most of it from Qatar flowed through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, 14 million barrels of crude oil a day goes through the Strait.

Oil production in Iran is about 3.4 million barrels a day which translates to $78 billion in 2024. Nearly all of Iran’s oil production goes to China, because of sanctions.

Qatar, has rich gas fields which were developed with partnerships from Exxon and Shell which allows the natural gas to be exported to Europe and Asia.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, when a conflict happens there is going to be some economic fallout and often prices rise which helps the companies deal with the disaster. In terms of world leaders, nothing ever is in tight borders, there is always other competing interests. The President was in Qatar to sign deals, but Qatar is dependent on the Strait of Hormuz being open for business. The President’s decision became complicated to what is the end game?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

When President Trump placed tariffs on almost every country in the world, it up ended the global supply chains. It may have the effect which the President wants, although the reality is if manufacturing does come back, most of it will be automated. New automated warehouses which used to hire thousands of high school graduates, will do most of the work with a hundred or less. The other jobs will be in robotics and maintenance of the robotic systems. Often times we think as President Trump doing something different, in reality every country has some sort of list, it is just not across every industry.

In an article from Reuters, Taiwan added China’s Huawei Technologies and SMIC (Semi-conductor Manufacturing International Corp) to its export control lists. SMIC is China’s largest chip maker.

In Taiwan the list is made by the Economy Ministry and to export to companies on the list will need government approval.

Taiwan is home to TSMC which is the world’s largest contract chipmaker and major supplier to market leader Nvidia. Both Huawei and SMIC are working hard to catch up to Nvidia’s lead in the chip-technology race.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, every country has some form of regulation to protect and not directly help who they consider to be the “enemy” of the country. The more advanced the knowledge and/or technology the more the regulations come forth. In most industries there are backdoors for the right price, but the long-term process is through government regulations. For the investments you own, the company wants to have clear regulations and good relationships with the government. If they do not, those regulations will come out of the rule book and be applied to the company.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

The President’s Press Secretary likes to say President Trump relies on common sense. That is good but then everyone else can look at the situation and determine if the President’s sense is good or bad.

In an article by David Pierson and Berry Wang of the New York Times News Service, it seems the China strategy is to exploit President Trump’s greatest weaknesses to exert maximal pressure and use the time gained to strengthen China’s position.

President Trump imposed 145% tariffs on China, rather than yielding, China used its control over critical minerals (90% of the world’s critical minerals are owned by Chinese companies and processed in China). while steering the focus to protracted talks instead of concrete results.

Meetings such as the ones in London, England and Geneva, Switzerland keep the US mired in negotiations over vague procedural steps, such as setting a framework for future steps. This means while Washington says China subsidizes industries unfairly, dumps goods overseas and limited foreign companies’ ability to do business in China, those issues are not addressed in the meetings.

Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institute believes China is very comfortable with this cycle of economic skirmishing with the US followed by episodes of diplomacy that merely returns to the status quo.

Kristen Asdal of the Asdal Advisory which focuses on China, believes we can see the increasing measures China has been taking behind the scenes to get a firm central hold on strategic minerals. That way, China can tighten or loosen with great precision and responsiveness to political conditions. That is a sign it can leverage for a long time to come.

President Trump meanwhile has overstated his position in terms of results expected in 90 days which fall on July 9. If he has no deal with China, then what?

It is important to note China’s economy is not as strong as it was exports which is China’s chief economic engine, has slowed due to tariffs. The country’s property market is still digging its way out of a crisis and electric vehicles have been hit by overcapacity and a price war. It addition, there is great amount of debt in China.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, we all have some common sense, but it has to balance with what is really happening with the data. In government, there are often competing interests, and the government is supposed to try to balance those interests, if not the old Aesop’s tale about the Emperor’s new clothes ring true.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In every industry, you will have bulls and bears, and somewhere in the middle is generally the market answer, but it fluctuates. For the commodities the price is the key. The higher the price, the more innovation, the less desirable spots suddenly come more desirable so it is possible.

In an article by Emma Graney of Reuters, the head of OPEC or Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Haitham al-Ghais, believes there is no oil demand pea on the horizon. OPEC is projecting global oil demand will surpass 120 million barrels by 2050.

The projection expects oil to be 30% of the total energy mix in 2050.

At the same time, OPEC recognizes the importance of investing in technologies such as carbon capture and storage to battle greenhouse gas emissions. There is no one size fits all solution to addressing the climate matters.

On the other side of the coin is an estimate by the US Energy Information Administration that says oil demand growth and crude oil prices will fall by the end of the year.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, the oil industry has been producing profits for generations as the Rockefellers will attest to. All large oil companies believe paying dividends and buying back stock is a very good thing to do, which means an investment is a good thing to do. With every investment, you look to the future that the company can continue to make profits and you hope and expect they will. Forecasts of the future help with the desire to keep the investments.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.