When President Trump decided to implement Liberation Day tariffs, global markets reacted and fell and millions of investors wonder what is going on? the 90 days are over, what has been learned?

In an article by Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Ahmed and Laura Matthews of Reuters, among the lessons for investors are: Brace for surprises from the Trump administration and be flexible. Pay attention to trade as you would monetary and fiscal policy. Do not overreact to headlines but make your portfolio as resilient as possible.

Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, said investors and the market more broadly are used to literal interpretations of announcements and what we are realizing with the Trump administration that is dangerous because there is often flexibility in the end result.

Michael Reynolds, VP of investment strategy at Glenmede, noted the uncertainty at Liberation Day was very open-ended. But the outline of a couple of theses initial trade deals have kind of narrowed the field of what’s probable on tariffs. The fact that we do not have this open-ended risk where tariffs could go anywhere, I think is pretty constructive.

Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at the Man Group, noted what I have learned is to expect to be surprised.

Some investors have referred to TACO or Trump always chickens out, meaning the fear of the announcement of harsh tariffs is overrated because many believe they will likely be moderated.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, the best strategy since the Liberation Day announcements was to hold and increase your holdings because the market bounced back and there were stocks offered at bargain prices. However, one did not know that at the time, but if you believe moderation will be the result, then it is a good strategy. President Trump will surprise people; an example was imposing a 50% tariff in Brazil for its treatment of a former corrupt President, what will Brazil do? how is that legal? if Brazil or a company that imports Brazilian goods sues, what court will hold the rationale? President Trump will surprise, and people will sue and eventually some form of moderation happens, and the cycle will continue. Hopefully for your investments you can watch most of the action from the sidelines.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

As a consumer, you will likely notice while there are holidays on the calendar, the events around the holidays slow begin to lengthen. The preparation that used to be a few days before can be moved to weeks or what is the next holiday. The notion is holidays means many work activities shutdown and people are paid, so what will they do? Often times they go to entertainment and shopping places to spend their holiday money, which is why the US economy runs on consumer spending.

In an article by Anne D’Innocenzio of the Associated Press, Amazon is trying to do the same thing by extending its special days. If you shop online, one of the costs is shipping. To combat that Amazon (and others) have a membership Amazon Prime which includes free shipping. Over the years Amazon has added other features to the membership, but free shipping is the biggest feature.

For the past 11 years, Amazon has Prime Days where you can save money on your spending or discounts. This year the company is offering new membership perks to Gen Z shoppers and increased the number of days to 4.

The retail world is very competitive and will match what their competitors are doing so Best Buy, Target and Walmart are having sales at the same time.

Amazon Prime VP amil Ghani, recently told the Associated Press, that shoppers want more time to shop and save.

Analysts are unsure the extra days will translate into more purchases.

While Amazon does not disclose Prime Day sales figures, but said last year had record global sales. Adobe Digital Insights predict the sales event will drive $23.8 billion in overall spending from July 8 to July 11, which is 24.8% more than the similar period last year.

Typically July spending is down, but this year analysts expect sales to be up because tariffs will increase prices for back-to-school spending season.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, every industry has a time when it tends to be busier than others and they would like sales to increase. In the consumer area, what will it take to loosen the purse strings in your wallet? for you to buy? It is a never-ending question, and millions of dollars are spent trying to find the answer. Depending on your investments, you can ask the same questions when is the best quarter? did the company meet expectations or beat them? do you want to hold or look for alternatives?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Similar to many people, having gone to Florida for winter vacations, one of the offshoots was to go on a boat cruise into the everglades and see alligators. One of the shows on TV was hunting alligators which because of the teeth and music of the show made the hunt exciting to watch. In addition, the University of Florida teams has the gator for a mascot. Being in the northeast, fortunately we do not deal with alligators. In the summer reading came across a book called Gator Country by Rebecca Renner, published by Flatiron Books, NY, 2023.

The book is both a description of the Florida everglades and a story about a sting operation about trying to protect the alligators from poachers. With every issue, there are rarely lines where people do not cross.

One of the reasons why people from the northeast go to Florida is for the weather, there is no snow in the winter. However, to accommodate the tourists and potential new residents, swamp land in Florida has been and continues to be changed to housing developments and golf courses. Often times alligators are a nuisance in these areas. In the protected areas of the Everglades National Park, the alligators exist as they have always existed. When the tourists come, they like things relatively simple like roads which lead to the Army Corp of Engineers trying to ensure roads could be built which meant diverting water. This changes the habitant of the Everglades which meant the locals had to adjust, but would they? do they really change?

When the Army Corp changed the habitant, the animals moved but when they moved the scientists noted fewer animals which they believed would lead to extinction. This leads to enforcement and the story in the book, what is good for the animals and good for people?

Linking to dividend paying stocks, all these companies do good because they sell products people want to buy and contribute to their communities and distribute dividends. Sometimes decisions that are made benefit the companies to a greater deal than the consumers, is that good? perspective matters and as a shareholder you say yes as long as the company can be profitable and pay their dividends.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

One of the reasons why you buy dividend paying stocks which are profitable is because they should be resilient and adaptable. Recently in a press conference, the Defense Secretary was asked about plans for the military, and he said, we have plans for everything. One hopes that companies have the same ability to have plans and be adaptable to what the government proposes.

In an article by Emiliano Rodriguez Mega of the New York Times News Service, is about a Mexican factory. Danfoss is a HVAC company headquartered in Denmark and has operations around the world. It built a factory a few hours from Texas to supply the US as 80% of its air conditioners and refrigeration units were sent to the US.

When President Trump put on tariffs, first they sought out Mexican suppliers for products bound for the US. The market was not big enough, they managers analyzed which products already complied with the pact’s rules but had not yet been certified as such.

Today, virtually all Danfoss products shipped from Mexico to the US comply with the trade deal of USMCA. The next step is to make some of the components in Apodaca, where the Danfoss factory is instead of relying on China which will help in mitigating the impact of punishing US tariffs.

Until now, Mexico’s trade strategy was closely tied to Asia. Bringing in supplies from there was financially viable because of the low costs: instead of thinking how to manufacture things here, Xavier Casas, who oversees the factory says he would import them from China. Now he is thinking why not manufacture them in Mexico?

After July 9th, President Trump’s deadline, what is expected is some products will be lower and some significantly higher.

The top officials at the Mexican Economy Ministry, said more exporters wanted to show their products were mostly manufactured in North America with materials mostly sourced from the region. Data shows 87% of Mexican exports are now free of US tariffs.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, when politicians change the rules, which they are allowed to do, it takes time to adjust to the new rules. Many profitable companies can do that, as long as the next step is some form of stability, the rules last so they can plan. The tariffs were a good indicator how flexible your investments are, how did they adapt?

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

During the campaign and since being elected, President Trump says he loves imposing tariffs on other countries. There can be many reasons, but he believes if something is imported into the US, the other country pays the tariffs. He is wrong, the importer pays the tariffs and then the importer will likely increase the price to protect their margins which means the consumer pays the tax. For many consumers because much of the manufacturing has gone to other countries, this means the consumer has limited choices in their purchases because for many categories they are imported.

President Trump imposed tariffs, then lowered them or paused them and offer July 9 as a deadline. Just before July 4th, only one country had signed a tariff deal. If you crammed for exams, you would be experiencing what the negotiators have felt.

In an article by Alexandra Stevenson of the New York Times News Service, President Trump signed a deal with Vietnam for 20% tariffs. In addition, the deal would put a 40% tariff on export from Vietnam classified as a transshipment, or goods that originated in another country and were merely passed through Vietnam. The 40% aspect is aimed at China.

Vietnam has China’s manufacturing companies first choice to expand outside because the cost of labor was going up in China. In addition, as the US was targeting China over the years, Chinese companies expanded to over south Asian countries. (a small example is the produce bags you use to put produce in at the grocery store – they came from China, then Vietnam and now Cambodia and Thailand. Next time, you are in the grocery store, ask where the bags are made). Otherwords, if the US puts on tariffs on one country, they move to another.

President Trump’s negotiators have been pushing Vietnam’s export oriented neighbors to reduce how much Chinese content is in their supply chains. Of course, it is possible to use the American method of having a 50% plus 1 partner and that makes it the product of the company where it is located.

The trade terms that the US and Vietnam have so far agreed to will hinge on how they are defined. For example, how much Chinese inputs will be allowed in Vietnamese exports, and how will they be enforced?

Trade and investment from Chinese companies has helped bolster economic growth in Vietnam and the region. However, Southeast Asia is struggling to beat back the torrent of goods from China that are putting domestic companies out of business. In recent years, the Chinese government has heavily subsided factories (to keep people working) leading to surge of Chinese exports around the world.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, all profitable companies want to stay profitable and to that end they must control the costs to protect their margins. When something becomes less expensive to do outsource it. whether it is the next state or next country, outsourcing will be studied and reports written to move the operation to somewhere else. Where there are clear advantages, the outsourcing happens. When that happens there is always another country that is a little bit less expensive. At the moment, companies are going through Asia, eventually it will be Africa and then maybe back to the Americas? When a company has multiple operations in countries around the world or is global in scope, what is it? where the headquarters are? some things are hard to define when the goal is to maintain profits and keep the good margin.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

In a democracy, while the holder of the President has many agendas some will benefit the corporate sector and some will not. In a democracy, the President has to appeal to a wide variety of people and the message will appeal to some and not appeal to others, ideally at the end of the day most people will like what the President has done or tried to do. Along the way, people will offer judgement and given the presence of social media, likely putting their thoughts on line.

in an article by Michelle Chapman of the Associated Press, a great example is Elon Musk feud with President Trump. Elon Mushk may find out what happens when DOGE bites man.

Mr. Musk invested his money into a PAC and helped President Trump win the election. The President then put Mr. Musk into a powerful position, slashing government spending or DOGE. Mr. Musk recently left the government and is feuding with the President.

President Trump for his part, recently said DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon. Mr. Musk threatened to reinsert himself into politics and try to oust every member of Congress who votes for the bill.

Mr. Musk’s rocket and satellite company, Space X is in President’s Trump crosshairs. Space X has received billions of federal dollars to do work for NASA.

Tesla, the electric car company owned by Mr. Musk has received millions of dollars in government subsidies. Some or many of the subsidies maybe cut by the HR 1, because the President does not like green energy.

In addition, many federal government departments have an interest in Mr. Musk’s companies including the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, if desired, the government can over regulate the company.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, many of these companies have public relations department particularly to ensure when the company disagrees with the government, the message is toned down and in a manner which stresses co-operation is possible or working together we are better which ruffles fewer feathers. In private, companies say different things. Governments have resources and ability to slow thing down for companies, it is always best to work with them.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Hopefully you will be able to read this summer, ideally because it is a great time to go outside, sit with a book and read for pleasure. One of the other books on your list should be something which allows you to take a cynical lens to your investing. There are many good reasons to invest in the stock market and wealth creation is a great reason, but there is adage that stocks go up and down but, overtime they have been proved to generate more wealth than leaving your account in the bank or buying a certificate of deposit. While you do not lose money, overtime the interest rate rarely keeps you above inflation which means there is limited growth.

One book that is cynical is The Devil’s Financial Dictionary by Jason Zweig published by Public Affairs, NY, 2015. Mr. Zwieg writes the Intelligent Investor column in the Wall Street Journal every weekend. He also was the editor of revised edition of Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor.

The book goes through an A to Z description of words that are important to investing. The cynical part is how Wall Street operates to generate wealth. From Wall Street’s perspective the more trading you do, the better they like you because there is a fee for trading. If you trade a great deal, does that result in higher wealth for you? or you do have many long-term holdings? Would it be better to buy an index fund? buy dividend stocks and hold them? The wonderful thing about Wall Street is there can be a depend. You have to determine which is best for you, but what is great for you is not necessarily great for Wall Street’s fees.

3 sample definitions

Rumor: The Wall Street equivalent of a fact

Stock Market: A chaotic hive of millions of people who overpay for hope and underpay for value.

Support: In Technical Analysis, a pattern in which the current price of an asset approaches its past low price. Example We think the price will find support at the $40 level, Feb 2013. We think the price will find support at the psychologically important level of $30, April 2013; although the $20 level was pierced, we think that was temporary and support will hold, June 2013; Historically $10 is one of the strongest support levels, September 2014.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, in every industry, in order to do it every day you need to be both focused and be able to laugh at yourself usually through the cynicism you can see. There can be many valid reasons for buying a stock and as an investor you should know why you are doing, hopefully the price increasing should not be the first one.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

.

Hopefully you have the opportunity to read during the summer and some of it is fiction. Sometimes you will remember good lines or good stories and sometimes the book will relate to what you know and have experienced.

Recently read a book called The Medici Return by Steve Berry published by the Grand Central Publishing, NY, 2025. The book setting is Florence, Italy and the plot involves a loan between the Medici family and the Pope of Catholic Church. For generations, the Medici family was a banking family that also bankrolled the Renaissance movement in terms of architecture, religion, art and culture. This setting makes the book a good read.

Two stories that is told to the leading character Cotton Malone that symbolizes his exploits.

Cotton’s grandfather says, did I ever tell you about a barber who whispers to his customers, Let me show you something. This is the most foolish kid in the world. Watch while I prove it to you. The barber laid a dollar bill in one hand and 2 quarters in the other and then called a young boy over and asked which do you want, son? The boy told the quarters and left the shop. The barber says what did I tell you, the kid never learns. Later the customer left the barbershop and saw the same boy coming out of the ice store. Hey son, may I ask you a question? why did you take the quarters instead of the dollar bill? The boy licked his favorite ice cream and said, because the day I take the dollar, the game is over.

Proverbs 14:15 was right. Fools believe every word they hear, but wise people think carefully about everything.

The second story is There was a young man going through the country and sees a very pretty girl and says I want to marry her. The young man approach the father and asked him for permission. Her father, says I will release 3 bulls, one at a time, if you catch the tail of any of the 3, you can catch the tail of anyone of the 3, you can have her hand in marriage.

The first bull was one of the biggest, meanest-looking bull he had ever seen, the young man let it pass. The second bull, another big, fierce bull came out pawing the ground, grunting, slinging slobber, came out rushing. He let it pass. The third bull has small and scrawny. The young man was full of confidence, he jumped to grab the tail and realized something. The bull had no tail.

The point of the story – never let an opportunity pass you by, as they seldom came knocking twice. Lost opportunities were only a gateway to regret.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, in investing you have to think carefully why this opportunity? After you have made some money, you need to preserve it and make it grow, one way to do that is buy profitable companies that can pay dividends. The profitable companies tend to last decades which is good for your and as your money grows there are more opportunities to do good with your money.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Just about every thriving business depends on the government for subsidies, although for most businesses it is not the most important contribution. Often the start is the idea to have a business and there are grants to help develop the business. When expansion is ready there are grants to help with the expansion, sometimes these are tax incentives or they pay less tax. When the company needs outreach they look to the government for help to reach international markets and the list goes on. Individually, we do not call them subsidies but investments in businesses, but that is what they are.

Under President Joe Biden the administration believed that manmade pollution was causing part of the climate, if there was a way to slow it down such as renewal energy then it was a good thing to do. The renewals started with higher price points, but as more and more renewals came into the market, prices fell and soon they were compatible with the costs of fossil fuels. Less expensive than coal, but more expensive than natural gas. One might have thought both could co-exist.

In an article by Lisa Friedman, Maxine Joselow and Brad Plumer of the New York Times News Service, President Trump domestic policy bill, the Big Beautiful Bill, has President Trump demanding lawmakers enact even deeper cuts to clean-energy subsidies or scrap them entirely. President Trump was joined by Conservative activists, fossil-fuel lobbyists.

Lisa Jacobson, president of the Business Council for Sustainable Energy, a trade group, noted the ending of the subsidies will hurt businesses and risk significant job losses. For example, when President Trump promised to eliminate clean-energy incentives, companies have cancelled $15.5 billion in proposed factories and clean-energy projects.

E2, a non partisan group of business leaders and investors, analysis showed in May roughly $1.4 billion in electric-vehicle, battery and solar-paneled factories were abandoned which were overwhelmingly in Republican districts.

Among the vocal lobbyists are Alex Epstein, an author and founder of a think tank that argues fossil fuels ae crucial for human prosperity. He wants clean energy subsidies eliminated.

The American Energy Alliance, an oil and gas advocacy group funded a 6 week advertising campaign to influence lawmakers in Utah, Alaska, Idaho and District of Columbia.

President Trump does not like the clean-energy business and believes it to be a SCAM and says all subsidies should be eliminated.

However, the oil and gas industry has benefited from their own specialized tax breaks for decades. Those subsidies are apparently okay.

Senator Hoven believed those projects already approved and started should be grandfathered so they will continue to operate.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, all companies that make profits benefit from the government. In many cases it is not material, but decisions to where to make investments is based on how much the government at as many levels as possible are willing to help. Companies play the governments off because the investments tend to lead to other investments which leads to growth. it is extremely hard for a community to say no which is why it will still be done.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.