Dividends and Longshot, Part 2

A book called Longshot by David Heath published by Hachette Book Group, New York, 2022 helps explain why the process did not take as long as it generally is expected to.By all accounts, the vaccine did what it was suppose to and millions of lives were saved, but it seemingly came faster than most vaccines. Why and how are the pieces of the puzzle Mr. Heath writes about.

The story of finding of discovery is also about the people who work in the industry. Their curiosity allows them to make the next step and then there will be ups and downs as they try to find a solution.

Barney Graham was the deputy director of the National Institutes of Health’s Vaccine Research Center. This is the clearing center for the US government response to all the viruses that are out in the world. Scientists around the world share information about what is new and what could be the next concern. A scientist in China posts on Virological.org, a scientific bulletin board. In this case most of the email was a jumble of 4 letters, A, C, G, T, when the email is analyzed on a computer it revealed the virus’s identity. Graham had suspected the virus was a coronavirus, but he needed more data. The genetic code revealed the precise makeup of the so-called spike protein on its surface. Block that protein and you can render the virus harmless.

The center’s primary mission from the start has been to develop a HIV vaccine. But the virus that causes AIDS proved to a formidable foe. Our bodies mount a pitiful defense against it. Any vaccine able to defeat it would have to dramatically outperform our own immune systems.

The National Institute of Health was formed to tackle HIV, but over the years, it had evolved into tackling other virus such as the common cold for children or RSV. The RSV is the leading cause of hospitalization of children and as a cause of death among the elderly. Mr. Graham borrowed lessons learned from the HIV to ultimately choose messenger RNA as the vehicle to stop a pandemic.

The other story about drugs is the world of allocation of resources or money to do something. As the deputy director, Mr. Graham was in a position to move to production of the virus and receive $5 million for a demonstration project.

Later on in the book, the 2 scientists working at Penn State, besides being good scientists they had to be or have the skills in the office to be good grant writers. Scientists have theories, grants from the government pay for the research facilities and salaries. How good is the grant writing ability of the scientists will depend on what people do research on. After doing research and coming up with a conclusion, then Universities sell or partially sell the research to a company to commercialize the work.

Sometimes it is wonder how the world of pharmaceuticals functions at all.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, before you invest and even after, doing your homework or research is always the key. The key to understanding how the industry makes money, the key to understanding what factors work in the industry and if you are comfortable you can invest in early stage or late stage. Technically you can make more money in early stages, but some companies will not go far. If you invest in later stage companies, the probabilities means you may not make as much money but it will be more consistent through the years. There are tradeoffs in investing, and you have to understand them.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.

Leave a comment