One way to think about the world is 6 degrees of separation which means we are all closer or inter-related than you first thought. In the economy, the reality is less than 6 degrees and an example is Cuba.

In an article by Diego Ore of Reuters, Cuba is the island about 90 miles from Florida. The history of the island is it was settled for tobacco and sugar cane production and had all the issues concerning slavery. Once slavery was abolished, companies continued producing tobacco and sugar cane. If you are a cigar smoker, the finest tobacco comes from Cuba. Over the decades large distilleries were set up in Cuba as well as pre Las Vegas, the biggest gambling places were in Cuba. Then came along Fidel Castro and the Communist Party, all the lands were seized by the government, the distilleries moved countries, people fled to the US particularly in the Miami area. Cuba was close to the US but the US imposed sanctions on it and they were forced to reply on the USSR. After the USSR broke apart, Cuba had to look elsewhere for support.

In terms of oil, first it came from Russia. When Venezuela elected a Communist government, the oil came from that country. In the recent months, the US placed a blockage on Venezuelan oil tankers which leads to Cuba needing someone else to buy oil from. It should be noted; Cuba has traditionally been a poorer country and suffers from energy shortages and mass blackouts. The tourist areas tend not be affected by the same concerns.

One of the suppliers to Cuba for oil is Mexico. President Trump posted in Truth Social there will no more oil or money going to Cuba. Zero.

What does that mean for Mexico? Publicly, the Mexican President Ms. Sheinbaum has said oil shipments will continue as they are on long-term contracts and considered international aid. Privately, the policy is under review.

2026 is the year the USMCA deal is up for negotiations. The USMCA is the free trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada. In addition, President Trump has said he will use the military to go against Mexican drug cartels.

Between January and September last year, Mexico shipped 17,200 barrels a day and 2,000 barrels of refined products worth $400 million, according to information from the Mexican state oil company Pemex to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

If Mexico stops sending oil, with Cubans begin a mass migration and try to go to Mexico?

Linking to dividend paying stocks, there are always relationships to what is happening in the world, some are direct and some are indirect but could easily before an input into the decision-making process. This is why for the overwhelming majority of companies; they value stability in the government.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.