Politicians love slogans such as President Trump’s drill baby drill. While just about every voter has a good idea what that means, the question is are the companies doing more drilling?
In an article by Lisa Friedman of the New York Times News Service, according to Kenneth B Medlock, an energy economist at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston, the answer is no,
There are reasons, oil is a commodity business, and the price has fallen from $75 to in the $60’s. That direction means the oil companies needed to find more efficiencies rather than drilling more. When President Trump imposed tariffs on steel and other commodities, oil companies need for wells and other equipment, costs went up.
President Trump has repealed dozens of environmental regulations that added costs to oil companies. He has also opened up millions of ecological sensitive lands in Alaska to drilling and is poised to deliver millions of acres of offshore ocean waters.
One area where the President has delivered is President Trump’s tax and policy law is projected to deliver at least $18 billion in government subsidies and tax breaks for oil, gas and coal over the next decade.
Bob Ryan, who runs the Ryan Commodity Insights consulting firm said the first year has been too confusing to be positive for most companies.
Taylor Rogers, a White House spokesperson, credited President Trump’s agenda with lowering gasoline prices and improving energy security. According to AAA the average gasoline price was $3.069 a gallon versus $3.056 a gallon a year ago. (no one is positive where President Trump fills his tank for $2.00 a gallon).
There are reports that the peak of the shale oil productivity expansion will be 2026 and after that prices will tend to go as the US needs more imported oil.
In terms of electricity prices that everyone pays, they have gone up 11%, partly due to the demand for AI data centers.
Linking to dividend paying stocks, the oil companies have been and continue to be some of the best dividend paying companies in the US. For investors, it is good that oil companies can drill for oil, but oil is a commodity and when you are investing in the company, you need to know whether the company can make money at $60 a barrel? if yes and the price increases then your total return will be enhanced no matter what the politics are.
There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.