If you planning for retirement books, one of the phrases is having enough money to maintain the lifestyle you have been living. That phase can easily be individualized because while most people want the same things, how they go about is often very individualist. Recently read a report which suggested even though the US economy is 60% based on consumer spending, those with an income of over $250,000 per household is driving 50% of that spending. The others face all the pressures of higher prices and increased fees.

In an article by Lydia Depillis of the New York Times News Service, economists have been waiting for that multi-faceted storm system to hit the economy and the signs of the storm are everywhere, but what will be the severity of the impact?

James Egelhoh, chief economist with BNP Paribas, thinks the economy is going through a soft patch rather than entering a deep recession.

Plenty of indicators suggest that inflation and the labor market are headed in the wrong direction.

Price growth has sped up, particularly in categories of goods that are heavily imported and now steeply tariffed. One measure is the wholesale price index which is at the highest level since November 2022.

Spending has held up, particularly among higher-income consumers, according to credit card data analyzed by the Bank of America.

Economists are not surprised that tariffs are taking a while to filter into sticker prices. The President’s policies have not been consistent, some are on, some are exempted for a while, some have been threatened but not imposed. However, many countries in Southeast Asia the opportunity to bring in goods before the tariffs has gone.

In the labor market, there is a softness as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a large downward revisions to job creation over the past few months.

Some of it is related to AI tools being used by business and need for less people. Some of it is related fewer immigrants in the country as related to the immigration policies of the government. Losing 300,000 government workers likely did not help.

Mark Valentino, President of Citizens Bank, expect the President’s policies will have a impact on the second half of the year.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, when you are investing you are always wondering is the glass half full or half empty. There will be signs of both but it helps if your investments include companies that have near monopoly like conditions. For example, an utility has a near monopoly as long as the economy is doing okay, because people need to turn on the lights. If the economy goes down, there are longer periods when people do not pay bills on time or accounts receivable go up. However, if the number remains relatively low, then the company should be able to make a profit and pay dividend. Often the price of the stock does not double, but it does move upwards because of consistency of earnings.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.