In Washington, President Trump will issue an executive order on something to Make America Great Again and it will sound good. For the President and many people, they will buy the order, but for those in the industry they see reality and what it needs to make reality the truth.

In an article by Niall McGee of Reuters, President Trump wants to impose tariffs on copper but his plan to quickly boost domestic mining, smelting and refining capacity is a pipe dream says industry executives, analysts and consultants.

The tariffs are designed to repatriate industrial production to the US and encourage investment in the US. However, the push to do this will be extremely difficult in copper. And even if it happens on a small scale, it will take years.

Christoper LaFemina, an analyst with Jefferies, said the tariffs should incentivize some investment in mines and smelters, but to be achieved in less than a 10-year horizon is doubtful.

There are mines under development in Arizonia, but the reality is the earliest production expected is 2029.

The US is a significant global copper miner producing 1.1 million tones last year. But it relied on imports for about half of its needs. The biggest copper mines are in Chile which produced more than 5 million tones last year.

In terms of refining capacity, domestic capacity is 890,000 tones. In 2024, China which has dozens of smelters produced 12 million tones.

The last American company to build a smelter was Freeport-McMoRan which built one in Indonesian for $4 billion. The reason was the Indonesian government wanted it and ensured there were no environmental considerations to worry about. Very few communities in the US want a mining smelter in their backyard.

Mr. LaFemina of Jefferies believes the biggest beneficiaries of potential copper tariffs would be Freeport, which accounts for 60% of US mine production. A 50% tariff would bring in $2.8 billion in annual free cash flow. Other companies mentioned are Asarco, Rio Rinto PLC and Arizonia Sonoran Copper Company.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, with most government announcements, there are some potential winners, some losers and many that could be winners under the correct conditions and assuming higher prices in the raw material. Before you chase the stocks, do your homework which implies taking time. If the prices all jump, it tends to mean they will also fall back and when results actually happen they will rise again based on making money. As an investor, most of the time your job is to research or do your homework to decide when the market turns in the way you are hoping you benefit. On shows which discuss the stock market you will hear keep some dry powder or cash to invest. One way to build up the cash is buying dividend paying stocks and when the dividends are paid you can invest it into your list of potentials.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.