When President Trump decided to implement Liberation Day tariffs, global markets reacted and fell and millions of investors wonder what is going on? the 90 days are over, what has been learned?
In an article by Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Ahmed and Laura Matthews of Reuters, among the lessons for investors are: Brace for surprises from the Trump administration and be flexible. Pay attention to trade as you would monetary and fiscal policy. Do not overreact to headlines but make your portfolio as resilient as possible.
Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, said investors and the market more broadly are used to literal interpretations of announcements and what we are realizing with the Trump administration that is dangerous because there is often flexibility in the end result.
Michael Reynolds, VP of investment strategy at Glenmede, noted the uncertainty at Liberation Day was very open-ended. But the outline of a couple of theses initial trade deals have kind of narrowed the field of what’s probable on tariffs. The fact that we do not have this open-ended risk where tariffs could go anywhere, I think is pretty constructive.
Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at the Man Group, noted what I have learned is to expect to be surprised.
Some investors have referred to TACO or Trump always chickens out, meaning the fear of the announcement of harsh tariffs is overrated because many believe they will likely be moderated.
Linking to dividend paying stocks, the best strategy since the Liberation Day announcements was to hold and increase your holdings because the market bounced back and there were stocks offered at bargain prices. However, one did not know that at the time, but if you believe moderation will be the result, then it is a good strategy. President Trump will surprise people; an example was imposing a 50% tariff in Brazil for its treatment of a former corrupt President, what will Brazil do? how is that legal? if Brazil or a company that imports Brazilian goods sues, what court will hold the rationale? President Trump will surprise, and people will sue and eventually some form of moderation happens, and the cycle will continue. Hopefully for your investments you can watch most of the action from the sidelines.
There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.