During April and May many companies have Annual Meetings which allows shareholders to hear from the senior leadership of the company, vote for the financials of the past year, select an auditor, and any other items management would like to see. Very often if the company made money, shareholders vote with management. One of the reasons shareholders often vote with management is does the company meet expectations or exceed them? With improvement in AI and computing, some companies forecast should be very easy. Others reasonably easy and most given a reasonable stable government and economy, the numbers should come in what Wall Street expects. The last part is what is not happening with President Trump and deciding to throw out global supply systems, to replace it with??

In an article by Chris Hannay of Reuters, companies such as Delta Air Lines Inc and Walmart Inc said they could not offer financial forecasts as they navigate through the fog of a trade war.

Delta CEO Ed Bastian said given the lack of economic clarity, it is premature at this time to provide an updated full-year outlook.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said it could not provide guidance on operating income for the quarter because of factors that included tariffs. The situation was fluid. Mr. McMillon said that 2/3s of what Walmart sells is made, grown or assembled in the US. Although assembled often means the parts come from outside the US. In the meantime, Walmart will take it one day at a time.

A side note is in the retail world, advertising campaigns are planned 6 months plus in advance, and ordering is done 3 weeks in advance. If sales go better than expected it is relatively easy to get more stuff. Not being able to plan, says a great deal or they will tend to order the minimum.

Another factor in the retail world is Goldman Sachs has a forecast there was a 60% chance that tariffs would drive the US economy into negative territory. After the tariffs were paused, Goldman decreased it to 45%. One must remember, 60% of the economy is based on consumer spending, throwing uncertainity means more people save or cut back or do less shopping and more browsing which tends to be a self-fulling prophecy that negative growth will happen.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, ideally these are companies that have either a near monopoly or are so ingrained into the economy or law that consumers will continue to buy their products. For example, the law says to drive a car you need to have insurance. Some insurance companies are better than others. Utilities are a near monopoly, there is always alternatives, but most people use the local utility. Ideally, many of your investments have the stability that allows for uncertainty even if comes from the White House.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.