For most of us, thankfully we are not involved directly in armed conflict, but what happens when there is one in a country. From the outside looking in, we know there will mass migration to safe areas of the world, ideally all those leaving have some form of money to ensure travel costs. After the mass migrations which will make headlines, the businesses that are left, how do they function? Louai Al Roumani, Former CFO of BBSF Bank in Syria has written a book about how to function, which can be used for contingency planning if fortunately you are not involved in armed conflict. The book is titled Lessons from a Warzone, Penguin Business, London, UK, 2020.

Chapter 9 Don’t overplan

War or no war, it was really a no-brainer at BBSF, budgets and plans still needed to be done. One of the plans to be done is the Business Continuity Plan (BCP). The plan highlights business processes across all operating cycles and categorizing them by several factors including their criticality and the impact they had on different areas.

The project defined the highly critical operating functions that needed to be undertaken in case of disruption and itemized all the resources required. We reviewed and identified every single activity that took place on several areas.

We did multiple scenarios and tested them several times on different sites. The odd thing what activated it – a snow storm. In times of crisis, it is likely to become more and more difficult to forecast all possible triggers, and any attempt to do so might be both overwhelming and futile. We found it far more effective to focus on assessing the impact of the disruption and train the staff to take the initiative, depending on the actual circumstances.

in planning for the BCP, there is a tendency to rely on the numbers. The numbers do not lie, they are what they are. A possible better approach is The Crisis Planning Model

You always need a plan.

Always focus on the vision and your ultimate goal, but have flexibility in your operating plans. The spirit of the plan should be focused on fulfilling the evolving Critical Success Factors (CSF). What is normal is to change your tactics and be flexible in them to meet the constant vision.

Focus on the long-term

Shock your systems

Be open to creating a strategic rift

Become better at assessing change

Situational leadership approach

Have backups

Linking to dividend paying stocks, you have heard all the cliches – by the numbers, the numbers tell the story, and then comes a crisis and the numbers do not make sense for a time. If you never practice some flexibly, it will be a shock to the system. You will be paralyzed for a brief period of time. We all know it happens, but not on my watch, it happens on everyone’s watch.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.