When a new President is elected, they normally follow the rule do no harm or allow things to run the way they were before but with a different administration. There are always things the new government does because it did not like what the previous was doing. After they fix those problems, the reality of the situation comes up and most like the status quo.

President Trump likes to shake things up, and that can be a good thing, it the messaging allows people to adjust. Unfortunately, sending the country into a recession is not a good thing.

In an article by Matt Ott of the Associated Press, US consumer confidence continued its sharp decline as Americans views of their financial futures slumped to a 12-year low over tariffs and inflation.

The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points to 92.9. Analysts were expecting 94.5.

It is important to remember about 60% of the US economy is people shopping and buying things. People who love to shop and buy are the lifeblood of the economy, those that are more frugal are important, but the shoppers are the key.

With all the cuts in government jobs, people in non-government jobs tend to cut back because many have grown up when you have a government job, there is job security. You will not get Silicon Valley money, but you have job security. That sentiment is gone and ripples through the economy.

While government talking heads will tell you one thing, the real evidence is from the nation’s largest retailers. Walmart has slashed its profit forecast for this year.

Target Corp’s sales and profit slipped during the crucial holiday season where sales and profits are made.

Mays, Best Buy, Abercrombie & Fitch and Dollar General have grown cautious about their expectations for 2025.

The Conference Board survey shows purchasing plans for both homes and cars declined. If you buy a home, the home will need to be furnished. Then afterwards there is always something to do or week to week repairs and improvements.

In March, President Trump announced a tariff on everything, then he walked it back and imposed tariffs on products on April 2. People know prices will go up, because the solution to build in the US takes billions of dollars of investments and the companies have to know the tariffs are permanent or very long term. If prices go up 25%, but companies need 50% increase before it makes economic sense to change their allocation budgets, prices go up.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, the US economy has evolved to a consumer spending one and when consumers in general cutback it is not good. When you know 50% of households live paycheck to paycheck, the amount of free spending consumers seems to go down every year and every company fights for their share of those dollars. However, it seems for particular events, there still seems to be high demand for products. All of which means is being selective with your stock picking is a good idea.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.