There is an expression which shows lets see the numbers or show me the money. What it means is there is always a method to express optimism, but sometimes reality is different. For example if the you say the economy is doing well, but 40% of the people cannot pay an unexpected $1,000 bill. It is good that people are working and have some money, but can it last? What shocks would send people, because living often means there will be shocks from unexpected expenses.

In an article from Keith Bradsher of the New York Times News Service, he observes car production set records, restaurants and hotels were increasing full and construction of new factories surged. All those are good things until you look behind the numbers. Deep discounts helped car sales; dinners chose cheaper meals (the cheeseburger rather than the Big Mac) and less expensive hotel. Many factories ran at half capacity, during COVID they were at a quarter or less.

China’s economy rose 5.2%, but that was from almost no growth for 3 years. The real estate housing market prices continue to be 20% lower which is not good for previous buyers and developers wanting to pay back billion dollar loans. China had a one child policy for a number of years, now that policy is hurting it as the population ages and it is expected China’s population will decline.

The government has spent money on infrastructure which helps people move around except most infrastructure leads to more debt because public infrastructure is not taxed and makes no money.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, every company around the globe can point to optimism otherwise they would be selling or winding down their business. When a company is profitable and can pay dividends there is true optimism to keep doing what it is business to do. It is important to be cynical when you hear the results, but optimistic after you have done your research or looked behind the numbers.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.