Most of us like the positive, when things and events seem to going forward. There are a great many expressions about the possible good future and some you will like and others not so much. When an economy goes south, hopefully if you are in one it does not affect you, but if the economy slowdown too much invariably it will affect either yourself or someone you know. When the economy turns, the whole country feels like it can be the king of the castle and many good things happen.

In an article by Joe Cash of Reuters, for the first time in 6 months, China’s exports grew. China is the world’s 2nd largest economy and it is thought buyers are attracted to the discount prices to get over a prolong slump in demand.

Exports grew 0.5% from a year earlier in November.

The Baltic Dry Index, a bellwether gauge of global trade climbed to a 3 year high in November, supported by improved demand for industrial commodities, particularly from China.

China is not out of the woods yet, the country’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed new export orders shrank for the 9th consecutive month, while a private sector survey highlighted the struggles of factory owners to attract overseas buyers for a 5th round.

Factory gate prices in the official PMI contracted for a 2nd month in November, while input costs expanded for a 5th straight month.

Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China noted the data shows overseas demand is stronger than we thought and domestic demand is weaker than we thought. The biggest export items are still electrical machinery and cars.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in November upgraded its China growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 by 0.4% but that came from a lower base. Moody’s slapped a downgrade warning on China’s A1 credit rating.

China’s crude oil imports in November fell 9.2% year over year, the 1st annual decline since April as high inventory levels and poor manufacturing activity took their toll on demand for products such as diesel. Iron ore imports climbed slightly in November.

Pinpoint Asset Management’s Mr. Zhang says, China’s needs to depend on domestic demand as the main driver for growth in 2024.