In every country there are think tanks and conferences about what could happen if things progress the way they are. It is not necessary bad or good, just about possible options and politicians will need to make choices. Sometimes the choices are not going to earn votes at the moment, so it will not happen, but papers are written and acknowledged.
In an article by Belen Carreno of Reuters, in a paper prepared for the European Union meeting in October, the EU could be dependent on China similar to the way it was dependent on Russia.
In 2021, the year before Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia supplied 40% of its total gas consumption, 27% of oil imports and 46% of coal imports.
To stop and change the supply chain has taken billions of dollars, consumer inflation, higher interest rates, lower growth projections. With the voters accept the same in the future?
The EU paper is about the goals to be carbon neutral by 2050 and one of the methods will be to use more lithium-ion batteries, fuel cells, and electrolysers which are expected to multiply between 10-30 times in the coming years.
Linking to dividend paying stocks, these types of papers suggest or project possible government actions or regulations in the future. It could happen or something could change, what would happen if Russia withdrew from Ukraine? or a new technology becomes commercial? there are many options, one aspect as an investor you wish to examine is what companies would benefit from the changes. Most will not be changing overnight but it is possible to start a list of companies to watch overtime. When the companies are profitable, it would be time to buy and hold. The reports are part of your continuing homework to determine what options to do if the changes happen.
There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.