If you read history books such as most of us do, there is a bias from the writers which is normal and natural. Much of the world is formally in a hierarchical process and given the nature of the beast, it is much easier to research. In a book called The Square and The Tower by Niall Ferguson published by Penguin Press, NY, 2018, the author suggests that one should also concentrate on the informal change or networks of the people with power.

If you reflect on WW I, why did the war start? If you were told between 1815 and 1914 there was relative peace in Europe, why did it not last. The answer is not because the Arch Duke was shot. The real reason is order established in Vienna in 1815 broke down.  According to Henry Kissinger the key reason was the Secret Reinsurance Treaty the Germans signed with the Russians. The treaty said Germany and Russia should be neutral if one of the countries was involved in a war with a third country. Germany was trying to ensure Russia would sign a mutual defence treaty France. At the time of the shooting, the 3 great powers saw war as the sole alternative to a crushing diplomatic blow,

The two big powers were able to mobilize close to 80% of the adult males into uniform merely by sending telegrams. Those who thought the war would be over soon underestimated the imperial state’s ability to sustain industrialized slaughter. The triumph of hierarchy over networks.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, often the why something is important is complicated. There are many variables at play and trying to understand them allows you to be a better investor.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.