In 1347, on a typical day one ship landed in Messina, which was nothing out of the ordinary. However on this ship all the crew were sick with a disease from the Orient. The Black Plaque had arrived in Europe and by 1351 between 25 to 50% of Europe’s population was dead. With those types of results many things changed in Europe and many volumes of books have been written about it. The approach Robert Gottried took in his book The Black Death published by The Free Press, London, UK, 1983 was the environmental one.

In the most basic understanding (such as mine) the Black Plaque was caused by flea called Yersinia pestis or Y.pestis which travels on rodents one of the most popular known as the Black Rat, interesting one barnyard animal which the flea does not like is the horse. The fleas like warm weather in the 80’s with high humidity. Cold limits the activity, high heat slows it down and less than 70% humidity kills it. In Western Europe the best conditions are late summer and early fall.

Prior to the Black Plaque Europe had seen fatal plaques before – from 541 to 542 what was called Justinian’s Plaque killed 40% of Europe after that Europe was relatively disease free. This allowed it to grow and contacts between Europe and Asia grew more trade happened, but then the climate changed but outside and the political climate. The setting is Europe has been relatively disease free for a few hundred years.

There are many theories why the Y pestis reached Europe although it is agreed that it originated in Mongolia and spread outwards. On the environmental side, Europe was becoming wetter than normal, while central Asia was becoming drier which meant the Mongol and Turkic nomads moved their flocks in search of greener pastures. The Black Plaque moved into China and its population in 1393 dropped from 125 million to 90 million. It affects are easily documented in the European literature but the plaque affected all human populations. The myth is the plaque came on one ship, the reality it was moving through all populations across Asia and Europe. The important aspect is what did people do when the plaque came? In some parts of the world there was fighting between different religions. In Constantinople the emperor believed the Black Death was divine punishment. In Cairo, the population fell from 500,000 to 300,000 – everything was in chaos. People flocked to Mecca because The Prophet Mohammed had claimed no deadly diseases in the Holy City but people died – perhaps they were the nonbelievers. Wherever the disease went about 50% of the people died, law and order broke down and people blamed someone else.

Linking to dividend paying stocks, while the affects of the plaque were terrible to all people, it is how people react which is most important to investors. First you want to protect yourself and who you feel your family/community is and then there is a blame game which targets someone else. In the case of the plaque eventually it moved on to the next community until the weather conditions were not good. We are fortunate or believe to be fortunate to have the disease control centers which give you an idea of where and how the disease comes and possible drugs to take not to have the affects on you. Sometimes as climate changes, cycles will change and things need to go back into balance – how long it takes no one really knows. When there is a boom or bust in the markets, remember when things are at the worst after you have adjusted that is when to buy the best profitable stocks and sell them when the markets are booming. Is it easy no. Does history say this is the easiest thing to do – yes.

There are more questions than answers, till the next time – to raising questions.